Zack Wheeler has had a history of pain in his throwing elbow before and now has resulted in the need for Tommy John Surgery. The Mets knowledge of his elbow led him to be kept away from the trading block for the winter and see how well he could perform during spring training. He received a platelet-rich-plasma injection during the offseason in hopes to get rid of the problem. Wheeler was supposed to go into the season as part of a dominating trio of pitchers that also included Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom giving the Mets are very good rotation. When Wheeler returns, it should clear him of the discomfort and pain and reduce the risk for future injury and be able to get to the top of his game.
Prior to Wheeler going down, Dillon Gee was slated for a long relief role or pitching for someone else. At some point during this season or during the offseason, one or both of Gee and Jon Niese could be traded away. Odds are that Niese stays at least until Wheeler comes back during 2016, but the Mets could get a decent prospect for Gee depending on how he pitches. Right now his stock is not that high after last season. He pitched pretty well to start the season posting a 3-1 record and an ERA of 2. 73 through 8 starts going at least six in all but one. Then he strained his right lat and missed about two months of the season. This did in part help the Mets becaue it brought Jacob deGrom up to the majors. After he came back he pitched in 14 more games finishing the year with an ERA of 4. 00. Niese pitched well for the first have of the season, but then in the second half his ERA was a full run higher than the first half. It seems like neither of them have a trade value very high, so it could benefit the Mets if those two guys go out there and pitch well and make them more appealing for trade offers. There is also Opening Day starter, Bartolo Colon, who may see himself traded as well. He is owed eleven million this season and pitched decent for the Mets last year. Colon is not going to go out and throw a no hitter every day, well he almost did once, but he goes out there every fifth day and puts his work in. He went at least six innings in twenty three of his starts and at least seven in eighteen of his starts. Any of these three for the right offer could see there way out of town to make room for one of the top pitching prospects.
The Mets have a wealth of starting pitching at the higher minor league levels, which is something that every team wants to have. They have three top pitching prospects that all could start in a major league rotation on Opening Day. While, Wheeler heals in hopes of coming back stronger, those guys can be evaluated without taking away starts from the young core of pitching already there. Rafael Montero will likely start the year in the bullpen and be a long man, but Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz will be waiting ready in Las Vegas. Either one of them could come up for a game and spot start if the Mets want to stretch the rotation one day or give one of the pitchers some more rest. Harvey is coming off of Tommy John surgery, Colon is turning 42 in May, Niese and Gee have had injury concerns in recent years, and deGrom is entering his first full season. It could be useful to bring Matz or Syndergaard up for the first game of a double header or during a long string of games with no break just to give the guys a little bit of extra rest. If those two perform great in Vegas, then the Mets need to evaluate what they could get in trade for some of the other guys and make a spot for them to take over.
The Mets are lucky that they can have a starting pitcher go down and can easily put someone in that spot without to much trouble, but it still hurts them a little bit. Even if the Mets traded Gee they still had a few guys that could have taken over. The bullpen has not been as lucky recently, but maybe there is a trade to be made where Alderson can swing a deal for a nice reliever without giving up too much.
Not sure how it’s a “blessing” that Wheeler got hurt. For that to be the case, you would have to believe that Wheeler in 2015 was going to be worse than Gee in 2015 as a SP.
Even as a Wheeler pessimist, I don’t see him as worse than Gee.
Yeah, I’m not sure I see this as a blessing either.
You could say the Mets are in a better position than most to weather this blow. You could say he’s had ongoing elbow issues.
You could say this could open the door to the next deGrom.
But there’s no real benefit for Wheeler missing a year plus. He’s still a kid who has kinks to work out – especially his elevated pitch counts. He’s a guy who worked through another losing year and deserved to have a taste of success if it happens. And as Name half-alluded to, I think Wheeler’s floor is higher than Gee’s ceiling.
Wheeler has been pitching with elbow pain sine before he was drafted. The surgery was inevitable. It is better that it happened this year when the Mets have the depth that they have right now and when they are not definite contenders. They Mets have an outside shot at the Wild Card this year, but during the next few years the Mets are going to be serious contenders. I’d rather him have Tommy John now than pitch with extreme discomfort and have it next year or the year after in the middle of a pennant race. I wish Wheeler was in perfect health, but ultimately he is not and was bound to break at some point.
I agree about Wheeler’s floor being higher than Gee’s ceiling, but giving starts to him shows him off better than him being in the bullpen. If the Mets want to trade him halfway through the season this puts them in a position of better bargaining.
Also, one year with no Wheeler and four great years of Wheeler is better than five good years with Wheeler. He does need to work on things like his pitch count, but not with a bad elbow.
I guess you could say — as you argue here, but did not say in your original post — that it’s better now than later.
Especially if you are not so keen on 2015.
From my point of view, I actually think it was a huge loss for the 2015 Mets. Yes, they can weather it better than most. But I believe that a healthy Wheeler was ready to make the leap this season, and that his quality was going to be a huge plus for the Mets. If things were going to break right, Wheeler was going to be a big part of it. He’s a competitor. Moreover, I could imagine him winning a playoff game. As a fan, I’m at the point where I said to friends, “I’ll drive down to Citi to see Harvey, deGrom, or Wheeler.” I’ve already seen plenty of Gee and Niese; not interested in Colon. These games are not cheap.
I see Syndergaard going through growing pains; same with Montero (and I’m glad he’ll be in the pen, for now). Matz needs to throw more, get AAA experience, and we’ll see where he’s at down the line.
I wish the Mets had a healthy Zack Wheeler this season. I can’t pretend to see an upside. Moreover, by missing this year, we still don’t really know what we’ve got in Zack. It’s debatable & involves guesswork. Next year, that puts the club in a tough position. I guess my headline would be: “It sucks that Zack got hurt.”
James, as I was reading the article, I was thinking all the things that you, Name, and Mike are writing. However, I was looking to see what the blessing was while I was going through the 100th review of the Mets pitching totem pole, the blessing I will offer is that Montero should replace Wheeler. I really don’t care about trading Gee for some A ball prospect. Alderson hinted that Montero may be the one to replace Wheeler at first in his announcing the injury, but I have not heard anything since then.
However, Montero actually now has a chance to show something and if Gee starts the year, I would trade him at first opportunity or put him in the bullpen and bring in Montero. I would like the 33 Wheeler starts and the last 20 Colon starts to turn into 53 starts for Matz/Syndergaard/Montero, so we can really see what we have. Pitching Gee is nice, but like Tejada, are we going to learn anything new?
Unfortunately Gus I wonder if Alderson wants to start the clocks on Matz or Syndergaard?
Pete, in June. If Montero gets the initial two and a half months, then in June you trade Colon and bring up Syndergaard. In early August, you bring up Matz and let Montero and Harvey start to have starts skipped, maybe even deGrom. That way, you save Harvey, don’t go too high on Montero’s and deGrom’s innings and get Syndergaard and Matz about 15 and 10 starts, respectively.
Seems like you’re a night owl, too!
That Wheeler has had elbow issues for a long time and his mechanics are deemed unorthodox might be why we were able to get him for a past-his-prime free agent to be. San Fran knows pitchers and probably had an inkling.
Some say the same about Syndergaard’s mechanics.
San Fran wanted him back this winter…
Gus he would of failed his physical and then the cats out of the bag. Big difference between tendinitis and a partially torn UCL.
I know Pete. Just saying to Matt that despite his mechanics, the Giants wanted him back. Not trying to be a smart butt towards Matt, but it’s hard to always have good mechanics. If a guy is successful doing it his way, you have to let it go.
So what happens when he returns Gus? Do you change his mechanics? If not then who’s to say it wont happen again? I don’t recall Alderson saying anything to the press about Wheeler pitching in pain. I remember the word discomfort and Wheeler receiving some treatment for his elbow.
I let him pitch the way he is comfortable with. It’s his career.
I’m with Name. I can’t envision that there is a “blessing” in having a member of the team face a serious, potentially career threatening, injury. In any event, it is my fervent hope that Wheeler returns and is a much better pitcher than we have ever seen. Basically I’m not sure we’ve really seen a fully healthy Wheeler. Our trust is in Altcheck to make him all right.
Chris I will still be waiting for Wheeler to harness his control when he comes back in 2016 There has to be someone in the organization to teach him that he doesn’t have to strike out every batter. Those 20 pitches per inning are not going to change when he comes back if he cannot make the necessary adjustments
If the Mets are out of the wild card race then Niese and Colon should be dealt by the trading deadline. Gee is going to make 7-8 million dollars next season as a 4th or 5th starter. Seems very affordable considering how many Met pitchers have gone down with TJ surgery.
Further proof of my point on Gee/Montero from earlier:
This from Rubin’s article today:
Analysis: Officially, Gee is in a competition with Rafael Montero, but team officials privately acknowledge it’s Gee’s job, with Montero ticketed for the bullpen. Wheeler will undergo Tommy John surgery on Wednesday and is lost for the season.
My take:
If Gee is “in competition” with Montero, is it Gee’s job? Why would he be in competition at all, if it was a given? Was deGrom, Harvey, Colon, Niese, or Wheeler “in competition”? No! I’m thinking that it’s 50/50 right now Gee gets the job and will go down to their final appearance. Just to say that a veteran is “in competition” with a rookie is a diss at the veteran. Gee will be in the bullpen.
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So much depends if the Mets are in a wild card race. If they bomb out and collapse then I would think that Alderson starts to make those moves (besides moving Collins to another position within the organization). And if they’re out then you ease up on Harvey’s innings and we can all say together wait til next year when Wheeler comes back!
Don’t think I would use the word blessing, but the unintended upside of this injury is that it will severely impact his value throughout his arbitration years and may be the one to jump on a thrower extension of his first few FA years to make sure that he is set for life, so the critical years of paying the young pitchers probably just got a little cheaper and even Harvey lost a decent chunk of change due to TJS. The ARB process is not kind to pitchers who lose a whole year and even though most cases don’t go all the way there, the expected award is used as a baseline for agreements. Zach will have missed a full year and almost half before heading into his first year of ARB and will get a fraction of what he would have received without injury. Still not a blessing though.
FWIW, I like Dillon Gee and think that, if healthy, he’s a sold backend starter in the Bobby Jones tradition. I think he’s better than Colon and, very likely, better than Montero at this point in his development.
Supposedly 2015 is not a try-out year.
SA has not managed the logjam — in other words, the team’s assets — at this point. And it’s getting very close to the time when he must do something. We don’t want the fruit to die on the vine. At some point, you have to bring the excess to market.
Colon untradable because of a horrible contract. Gee & Niese undervalued because of past injuries. Montero unproven; needs to get outs in the majors. Syndergaard is the key, and I can’t pretend to tell whether he’s going to be great or erratic & undisciplined. He’s very young. The Mets have the best vantage point and they need to get this determination right. He’d make a great chip on the open market; but if he’s going to be great, it’s best to keep him.
Not an easy job to figure it all out. But at some point soon, Sandy must act.
Colon may have an untradable contract right now, but come July31, he will be due less than $4M and if moved with another piece or cash he will have some value to a team making a run, short on competent pitching and there are always teams that need to shore up the backend of a rotation to compete. If Colon does what Colon has done recently, there will be takers, just don’t expect a healthy return, but he will be clearable and maybe even earlier if packages. I think a Murphy/Colon package will be attractive to a team in the hunt. Won’t cost a ton of money or prospects, doesn’t saddle a team behind this year and there is professional value on both the offensive and defensive side. Trading them individually will return nothing and may require cash to go along. The whole will be greater than summer parts. The last thing the Mets need is to add more C- prospects, they are already facing a logjam of those on the Farm
James I agree. I would rather see Alderson commit to the kids and stop with the ridiculous FA pitching contracts. If the team is going to have any sense of who it is, it has to be done with the kids growing up and doing what we all expect they can accomplish at the big league level if given the chance.
At best- it’s a “better now than later proposition”, certainly no blessing in disguise. As far as the logic that , now that the Mets are down a decent quality starter, this opens the door to trade Gee “if he pitches well”– That logic completely escapes me. If Gee is pitching well, that indicates there’s a better chance than not that the Mets are competing well and possibly vying for a playoff spot. I think the only way Gee gets traded is if he’s healthy, but not pitching well- and some desperate club takes him on a ‘flyer’ that he can turn some things around and help them down the stretch. My best hopes are that he pitches well, he’s healthy, and the Mets compete. Given the current and near-term future state of things- meaning 2015- Montero and Syndy are going their shots in 2015.. Hopefully- they will perform when called upon. Let’s worry about 2016 in 2016.
But if the Mets are not in a playoff race for a wildcard then you can package Gee and Murphy at the trading deadline.The better Gee pitches the better the prospect(s)
With “playoff races” so watered down nowadays, a team can be 5 games under .500 in August and still have a realistic chance of making the second WC. The MLB is actively cultivating a mindset of collective delusion among all fans.
More teams than ever will be “in it” for the thrill of Game 163.