Oh David, how they doubt you. The chorus of concerns over your health is very touching. It’s out of love that we fans wish you so well in what we hope is a very fine and complete season for you. For we know, nay, we dream of what you might be able to fully contribute to the 2015 New York Mets, wherever that may take us. You’ve held us atop your weary shoulders for several years now, and finally it seems your team of heroes will united behind you. How might you lead them through their trials?
First, by getting on base. David Wright’s career On-Base Percentage is .377, which ranks 11th best of all active players, including six MVP award winners just above him. In 2013 and 2014 it was .390+, which in the heart of any order, even a bad one, will create runs. In those two years he put up an OPS+ of 144 and 156. The highest OPS+ Wright has ever had in a full season was previously 149 in 2007, the year he finished fourth in MVP voting. Now with a legitimate offensive lineup surrounding him for the first time since those mid ‘aughts, could he return to performing those kinds of numbers again?
The concerns over his health are understandable, but they are slowly being wiped away as Wright has had a very fine Spring Training. His four home runs and 12 RBI were nice to see, but his .321 OBP and 4/1 K/BB% weren’t great. More importantly than those small samples is the fact that Wright looks very healthy, and his swings look to have a lot of punch behind them. His leaping grab was a nice sign that his sometimes-superb defensive is still an asset. And in actuality, Wright doesn’t need anything close to a MVP-caliber season to truly effect the 2015 season.
A 162-game average year for Wright would be a line of .298/.377/.494 with 25 home runs, 101 runs-batted-in, and 97 runs scored. If Wright can play at career-average levels in just 140 games, he’d contribute 86% of his average value. That sounds like a good number, doesn’t it? At that rate, he’d still put up 22 home runs, 87 RBI, and 83 runs. The common refrain is that “this team needs David Wright to be David Wright again”. When in reality we would need him to play less than his average baseball for only 140 games to contribute the level of production we projected on Mets360.com. If Wright does return to 2014 level production, while avoiding serious injury, he could be a stealth pick to win his first ever Most Valuable Player award.
It’s rather unfortunate that Wright’s most injury-plagued season have been his last two, because it makes him seems fragile. Again, reality tells us a different story. Wright has played with a fractured bone in his back, and a broken thumb. He probably would have played with a strained hamstring, had he been allowed to hop to first base. And he played through much of last season with an injured shoulder, and still put up MLB average numbers. Wright’s largest injury-risk is not a particular joint or muscle, but his own stubbornness as a leader. Now that more is on the line and Wright finally has a team around him that can contend without his Herculean efforts, he hopefully knows that his health is more important for the Mets to contend in the playoffs.
More than his past success, and the strength of the team around him, is that fact that Wright has been close to the ultimate goal before, but still has yet to reach it. It is tremendous motivation, and if Wright can offer nothing else in the way of on-field production, he will be able to impart to the young players building around him that this season is precious, because they don’t come around a lot. The Mets hopefully do have many great years ahead of them, but as Wright, Josh Edgin, Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey have shown us over the past three years, plans change. Since he is the leader and knows the stakes, look for Wright to sit an extra day here or there to conserve his season. When he does, his overall production should stay steady, as it has for him in years past when health need not be monitored. With a potent lineup by his side, and a pitching staff that stands to rival those of more lucrative teams, Captain America and his team of cohorts are looking to do one thing: Avenge.
I’m concerned about his Grapefruit League K% – when I tracked this a few years ago, his regular season strikeout rate mirrored what he did in the Spring.
I was also concerned about that. But I think David can still be productive, even if his K% stays higher than his historic average. I also think having legitimate protection will help curtail his need to swing.
I like David Wright a lot, very thankful he’s a Met. But the bat looks slow to me, which may be why he’s been particularly vulnerable to the slider low and away; he has to commit a split second sooner.
I expect him to be quite good, not great.
In the pre-steroid era, we’d clearly see age 32 as a period of decline. That got blurred during the 90s, when guys suddenly got better at that age. I think we are seeing a return to the old norms, where it’s very hard to put up a full season of great numbers at age 35-plus, often because nagging injuries take an increased toil.
David is a great player and very important to this team. His best years are behind him, I suspect.
James I think you are correct that Wright’s best years are behind him. I still see a very good ballplayer with many good years left. I really like him as a #2 and expect that to be his future spot in the order once the Mets obtain or develop a #5 hitter. The Met front office should not have super star expectations of David and with that in mind should look to improve the middle of the order in the near future. Wright is the most important and all around offensive piece on this current team but it would be wise for the front office to be looking for an heir because it isn’t fair to put the burden on Wright to be the lead offensive player as he ages.
Very level handed article Patrick.
Metsense, I look at Adrian Beltre, who is 36, and I feel Wright should have a few more good years. For a world class athlete, he can still be effective and I still feel better about a 3-4-5 of Wright-Duda-Cuddyer, than Duda-Cuddyer-Murphy. I feel it shortens the lineup. If, and this is a big if, Lagares can be effective as a leadoff man, then the table setters of Lagares and Granderson will make the rest of the lineup’s hitters complementary of each other. If however, Lagares fails, then in absence of a credible option, Wright will suffice. However, you shorten your order and leave three similar, inexperienced hitters at the bottom of your order without a change of pace. By taking one out and putting him at leadoff, should he be successful the rest of the lineup will become a minefield for a pitcher.
As it stands, you have a weak OBP guy in Murphy batting in front of three righties that aren’t high average guys. Quite honestly, if TDA continues to smoke ’em, putting him 6th is the right move; then Murphy. To see Murphy’s first at bat back be an all arms pop out to left center made me wish he was already traded. Will be never learn to look for authoritative results every at bat? How many times we have heard Hernandez about never giving away at bats, but Murphy just wants to put bat on ball and give up a plate appearance. And, i think it was the first pitch.
As for my assessment, I agree with every word James just wrote.
However, one thing David has gotten better at is his interview. Before, he wouldn’t say too much, so as not to give anything away that shouldn’t be out. Now, he can talk for a while and we wouldn’t hear anything new. Crash Davis would be proud.
From Adam Rubin’s blog today on espnnewyork:
“There are a lot of experts that choose the World Series before you play a game,” Wright said. “For us, it’s just going out there and getting a win in our division against a very good team. I don’t look into what the predictions are, what a team is supposed to do on paper — that includes us. That’s why you play the games.
“They’re obviously a very good team. I have a lot of respect for that team for what they’ve accomplished the last couple of years. But you can’t be thinking about that when you’re going out there playing a game. You just have to go out and try to win that day.”
Health is going to be the key for Wright. I want to see Wright drive the ball to the opposite field more often. It is easy to become pull-happy when you’re trying to hit homers, but the Mets are not going to win solely hitting homers. Their ballpark does not allow for that type of game plan. If the lineup is producing base hits and consistent contact, the offense will produce. Easier said than done, but hopefully Wright and Granderson cut down on their strikeouts and put the ball in play more often.
That graphic is out-of-sight! I hope you don’t get sued.