Jacob deGrom makes his 2015 debut Wednesday night as the Mets look to win consecutive games against the Nationals for the first time since 8/30-8/31/2013. In his rookie year, deGrom faced the Nationals once and came away with a no-decision, as he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP.
Everyone remembers the tremendous finish deGrom had in 2014, which carried him to Rookie of the Year honors. In his final 15 starts he had a 1.99 ERA and a 1.007 WHIP in 99.1 IP. That’s not too shabby. But we should keep in mind that deGrom faced a majority of sub-.500 teams in this stretch.
Overall last year, deGrom had a 2.02 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .536 OPS when facing teams with a winning percentage under .500. Against .500 and better clubs, those numbers were 3.39 and .689, respectively.
There’s nothing wrong with cleaning up against the weak teams and his numbers against good teams are strong. In no way, shape or form is this a complaint. But deGrom’s OPS allowed was 29% higher against the good teams, compared to 12% for the Mets’ staff as a whole and 6% for the entire National League.
Bartolo Colon was able to keep Washington’s big bats in check on Opening Day and it’s deGrom’s turn today. The Nationals are one of the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series this year and it will be a good early test for deGrom.
This past winter, our staff projected deGrom to finish the year with a 3.07 ERA and a 2.89 FIP. My forecast was much more optimistic, with a 2.30 ERA and a 2.49 FIP. It’s my belief that the way he pitched at the end of the year is more predictive of future results than what he did versus the good teams in the league in 2014.
He gets his first chance to prove me right tonight.
Interesting analysis, Brian. I hadn’t realized he struggled a bit against better teams. Hopefully that changes this season. He looked terrific in ST.
I expect him to regress a little, but not a ton. He pitched enough last year for teams to get a second and third look at him, but they didn’t start hitting him well.
He is a 1A. Him and Harvey will be an awesome duo over the next few years.
He did the job.The offense?Not so much.
One bad pitch. While he didn’t dominate, it was a good outing against a good team.
Im not so sure it was a bad pitch as much as Zimmerman having a great hot. He kept his hands in, expecting something in, and turned on the pitch. It was an excellent swing (relative to the other ABs he had, which were horrific). Could deGrom gone in a little more? Sure. But that wasnt a hanging breaking ball kind of bad pitch IMO.
It was a good outing, and I dare say better than that after the first. The Nats are a good team, with the DNA of winning coursing through their veins. That seems to matter.
Man, with the way Harvey pitched, after deGrom and even Colon, I’m highly impressed.