The 2015 New York Mets season is finally underway. After two games, the Mets are 1-1 and sending Matt Harvey to the mound in the rubber match against Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals in Washington.
The Mets looked confident in the opener and took advantage of multiple fielding errors by the Nationals on their way to another opening day victory. In the second game, they looked equally as confident but fell short in the second pitcher’s duel of the series.
There has been tremendous optimism among the fans and media, especially after the previously mentioned opening day win and the upcoming Harvey start. With all this optimism, however, the stakes are that much higher and the thud could be that much louder should they falter.
There are three reasons why the latter option is a possibility and, therefore, a realistic and albeit more cautious approach should be applied: team health, divisional success and coaching.
First, the team’s health has been a constant issue. As recently as yesterday, injury news has been a dominant factor in New York Mets headlines. Word of a DL stint for Jenrry Mejia due to elbow inflammation had surfaced.
Mejia was taking the closer role for Bobby Parnell, who was also on the DL to begin the season. As if these questions aren’t enough, there is the question of how healthy Matt Harvey will be after enduring 30 starts, Daniel Murphy‘s health after there were questions if he would start the season on the DL and David Wright‘s health and how it impacts his plate performance.
Of course, this doesn’t count the aforementioned Mejia and Parnell’s rehab, the preseason loss of Zack Wheeler for the entire season or the potential for anyone else to go down. Suffice it to say, health may be the Mets’ biggest adversary in 2015.
Next, is divisional play. Roughly 76 of the 162 games the team will play this year will be against their divisional opposition. That’s nearly half of their games that will really impact the standings in a good or bad way. While all the games matter, divisional games are that much more important.
Last season, they finished 38-38 against NL East opponents, finishing in a second place tie and 17 games behind the team they are currently playing. It is that Nationals team that owned them last season to the tune of a 4-15 Mets record against Washington.
While the Mets had winning records against everyone else in the NL East, their well-documented struggles against the Nationals, may very well have cost them a legitimate wild card spot. That is the importance of good divisional play.
The final reason is the coaching staff. Originally, Terry Collins was tapped by GM Sandy Alderson because of his vast knowledge of the farm system. Now, the majority of the farm system studs that Collins knew in his time developing the Mets minor leagues is playing in Queens.
He has been retained for the past few seasons due to the promise of these youngsters and their potential. Seasons that ended just under the .500 mark were justified due to injuries or the mindset from management that the future is still to come.
The future has arrived for the most part and Collins has yet to prove that he is the guy that can orchestrate a successful collaboration of present and future on the field. His constant lineup changes are a distraction to players, his use of the bullpen is highly questionable as to overuse or too match-up oriented and his love for platooning and utilizing bench players is a deterrent for the rhythm of the hitters.
He kills confidence by benching key players against particular match-ups and favors specific players that are struggling by keeping them in the lineup for far too long. These are all decisions of knowing the right time to do or not do something.
Terry Collins doesn’t seem to have a solid enough handle on this strategy to consistently put the team in a position for success. While it’s up to the players to perform in the roles that they are given, it’s up to the coach to put them in the best position possible for success.
That is something that Collins fails to do on a regular basis. If he can prove that his experiences with this roster has made him the right guy for the job, than the team can make him look like a genius on the field.
In closing, it can be an exciting time to be a Mets fan. With that said, expectations from fans must be reserved and tempered until the team really reaches their potential. For that to truly occur, the Mets must overcome their health issues, have success against their division and have their coaching staff push the right buttons at the right time.
It could be a special season, but before everyone begins to compare 2015 to 1986, there must be a reality check, otherwise, expectations turn into delusions of grandeur.
Frank, some very good points but I have a different view on the last one. You’re right that health is a big reason for a team’s success, but the Giants lost their ace last year and a new one stepped up.
Also, Chris F and I had a conversation about three weeks ago talking about the weakness of the Marlins starting staff. That was exposed by the rebuilding Braves to the tune of a sweep. My point is that the only team that should be able to battle it out with the Nationals is the Mets. The Mets will have to match whatever record the Nationals put up. But I wonder, if he is “by the book” in his match ups, why isn’t he in his lineups?
Now, to Collins. You know what, I don’t want to get aggravated to start my day. Let’s skip him today. I will only mention that he was a “minor league instructor” for one year. He was hired by Fred Coupon after being unable to get any MLB job offer from any MLB team.
For those keeping score:
1) The Flores Experiment (which I am in favor of): Data point, I think Game 2 goes arrow down. He failed to field a ball in the hole that a SS with better range would have gotten to. That runner scored after Zimmerman hit a 2-out homer. For one game, his hitting did not offset the defensive weakness.
2) Batting Pitcher 8th Data Point: Last night, it really didn’t work out. Chance and luck are involved in this, for sure, but after 3 consecutive singles our #8 batter came up and, because it was the pitcher, TC opted to bunt. I forget the details of the other ABs — except the 9th — and in each time it felt like a disadvantage. As Ron and Keith noted last night, if the Mets are going for a double-leadoff hitter concept, it is strange that Flores is that guy since they would never bat him leadoff. Actually — and this would never happen — but Granderson might be best suited for the 9 spot (if they insist on this dopey strategy). Anyway, I can’t quite wrap my mind around the logic of what they are attempting to do. Why bat Colon 9th but DeGrom 8th if the idea is to get more hitters in front of Wright? And if that’s the idea, why bat Wright 2nd? The logic of the games 1 & 2 lineups don’t cohere as far as I can tell. But all we can do is watch and assess. Last night, Game 2, pitcher 8th was a negative.
James since Collins is not the innovative type would you say Alderson is “suggesting” these line up ideas to him? Helluva time to try and be cutesy with the line up. Was wondering if the Mets tried this during ST this year.
The worse offense is bunting, not having the pitcher 8th.
I was under the impression that Collins was “picked” by Fred Wilpon not Alderson which is why there is so much friction between GM and manager. Terry Collins was once a major league manager.. Not any more. The same issues he had before still exist. Throwing players under the bus and refusing to play the kids. His overuse of old timers he trusts (eg. Abreu) is alarming and detrimental to the future of this ball club.The perfect antisasis to Joe Maddon.
Pete, my take has always been that Sandy hired TC and extended him twice, and that TC fits in with the malleable sort of middle manager that SA desires in a manager.
I thought it was funny when TC admitted that Sandy — his boss — had “input” into the lineups. So we have a guy who is so grateful to be wearing the uniform, with his job openly on the line, and his boss is giving him suggestions about this and that. What would you do? Personally, if my employer came over to me and said, “Try X,” well, I’d try X.
I believe it’s a given that Sandy and his staff have consistent input into the decisions that TC makes, and that TC uses some, delays others, and listens always. I don’t have a problem with it. My problem is with people who like to believe that TC is the lone gunman on the grassy knoll.
If Sandy wasn’t happy with TC, if he felt that TC was undermining his work, then Sandy would not have extended him . . . twice.
Again: Sandy is the guy who replaced Tony LaRussa with Art Howe. I believe he’d do the same thing all over again. I believe he’d hire Bob Geren before Wally Backman.
I could be wrong, but I really don’t think I am.
I don’t think you’re wrong about Geren. Backman is too opinionated and vocal.
Good point about Backman. Also, it’s not like any of the other 29 teams are all fighting for his services. There’s something there that turns people off.
While it is nice to be cautious, I cannot help but be pleased after setting the tone early with a 2-1 start against their rivals. They have 50% of their wins against Washington last year, and their offense finally broke through. I hate to be excited this early, but I am.
With reason.
I believe that Ron Gardenhire will be the manager next year. He has a relationship with the Mets, a very good track record and handles young players. Although he was removed as manager of the Twins at the end of last year, he actually is under contract for this year.
If Terry falters, I agree that Geren finishes the year but unless he performs very well my bet would be on Gardenhire in 2016.
The team health has hit the bullpen hard. Last winter if someone said that Mejia, Edgin and Black would start on the disabled list there would be cause for alarm. Compound that with Parnell still out and no lefthanded reliever stepping up from the minors. Tip of the cap to Sandy for acting quickly.
Taking two is very encouraging and two more against the Braves before coming home to the Phillies with deGrom and Harvey sounds extremely encouraging. Let’s not stumble in Atlanta.
I cautiously optimistic that the Mets keep winning so that I won’t have to addressthe excellent points that the author makes about TC.