The question plaguing the Mets right now is: How do we get more offense? The company line is to wait for the injured players to come back and hope that Michael Cuddyer reverts back to 2013. The rest of us aren’t so hip to that plan. Often times we try to package our trash for other teams’ stars and that’s not too good, either. But what if we put something worthwhile on the table? What would the trade value of Juan Lagares be and could the team handle his loss defensively?
The history of MLB is full of hitter-for-pitcher swaps. But here, we would be looking at an offense-for-defense deal between position players. You could argue that this has been done before, needing to look no further than a deal this offseason when the Padres sent offensively challenged Cameron Maybin and others to the Braves for offensive star Justin Upton. But the fact that other players were involved and that salary played such a huge role in that trade, makes it a different beast for me.
So, from a theoretical point of view, would you trade Lagares to the Tigers for J.D. Martinez?
Now, since this is a thought exercise, there’s no concern given here to if Detroit would do it. Instead, the only thing we’re concerned with is if it make sense for the Mets. Last year, in a similar number of PA, both Lagares and Martinez produced a 4.0 fWAR. Most of Lagares’ value came from being a Gold Glove in CF while Martinez had a (-1.6) UZR last year playing in both outfield corners.
Obviously, if his defense was that poor, Martinez’ offense last year was very good. He posted a .912 OPS and a 153 wRC+. Both marks would have easily been the top mark for the 2014 Mets. Martinez performed just as well at home (.910 OPS) as on the road (.913) and while the RHB killed lefties (1.003 OPS), his .880 OPS versus righties was nothing to sneeze at, either.
Last year at age 26 was easily the finest season of Martinez’ career. This season after 40 games he’s not performing nearly as well. It should be noted that last year’s numbers came with an insane .389 BABIP. So far this year, he has an .817 OPS and a still-elevated .337 BABIP. Last year, Lagares posted a .703 OPS with a .341 BABIP.
So, Martinez probably won’t post an OPS north of .900 again. But Lagares probably won’t post one north of .700 again, either. At least not this year. Would you like to drop Martinez and his .817 OPS into the middle of the Mets order right now? Martinez would be coming over hitting the ball the best he has all season. In his last 11 games, he’s slashing .410/.489/.615 over 45 PA.
Just from their 2015 stats, Martinez would represent a 191-point upgrade in OPS over Lagares. Last year the upgrade was 209 points. Of course, we also have to factor defense into the equation. If Lagares is gone, who plays center for the Mets? The most likely solution for 2015 would be to slide Curtis Granderson over from RF.
Regardless of who the Mets would choose to play, the downgrade would be tremendous. Granderson has played plenty of CF in his career and still has some wheels left, so it likely wouldn’t be a disaster. But even if Granderson proved to be a suitable defender in center, it would only be a short-term solution.
It seems to me for the Mets to entertain the idea of trading Lagares, they would have to be convinced that Brandon Nimmo could handle the position defensively. As soon as he was ready for the majors, he would be installed in CF, with Lagares moving over to left field and Cuddyer to the bench.
Another factor to consider is that while Martinez was a negative defender overall last year, he did perform better in RF than LF. In 689 innings in LF in 2014, he had a (-3.7) UZR but in 242 innings in RF, he had a 2.1 UZR. This year, playing exclusively in RF, he has a 1.9 UZR in 343 innings. Perhaps the numbers are still too small to mean anything. But if we were to conclude anything, we would say he wouldn’t be a sieve out there.
Meanwhile, while Lagares is easily the best defender on the team, his early defensive numbers are not quite as awesome as what he displayed the previous two seasons. After 336 innings, his UZR/150 checks in at 15.4, a terrific number but still down from last year’s UZR/150 of 25.3 — or nearly a full win worse. It could be the distribution of balls hit to him – he certainly seems to be in the position of (unsuccessfully) chasing down rockets over his head here lately. But even if the legs and glove are every bit as good as they are before, Lagares’ arm has not been as impressive as it’s been previously.
Simply from the Mets’ point of view, a Lagares-Martinez deal is a fascinating thing to consider. It would give the Mets a potent righty bat for the lineup and the ability to drop Cuddyer out of the cleanup spot, two things that would certainly benefit the offense tremendously. And in his limited sample, Martinez has been better-than-average defensively in right. It would be a below-average defensive alignment for the Mets but nowhere near as bad as what the Padres were putting out there in April.
But before we sign off on the deal, we have to factor a couple of other things into the equation. One is that Martinez is a year-and-a-half older than Lagares and he’s probably not going to come close to his 2014 season again. And the other is the possibility that Lagares still has room to improve offensively. Reasonable people can disagree on what that chance is but hopefully none of us believe that his current .626 OPS is likely to continue all season. If nothing else, his .053 ISO this year is half of what it’s been previously.
Can Martinez be counted on to provide what he’s done this year – both offensively and defensively – moving forward? If the Mets could count on this production for at least the next three years, then they would have to at least consider the deal. Has Lagares slipped any defensively? He has been at such an ultra-high level previously, it’s certainly possible, especially knowing that defensive numbers typically peak earlier than offensive ones.
Now’s not a bad time for the Mets to move Lagares. He could be viewed as a sell-high guy, one whose defensive reputation will never be higher and one who still offers the promise of offensive growth.
Sorry, thats preposterous. I know in your early “make up a scenario” for the season, you had him with a season ending diving catch. Now you just want him gone. Im curious, will there ever be enough he could do to to stay on your Mets? Of all the crimes being committed in Flushing, solving the hitting problem (though I dont think JD Mart would) by getting rid of the only defensive player we have seems to violate any number of reasonable approaches. Its not a fascinating deal for the Mets, its ridiculous on every front. Sorry.
All that said, any GM should listen for offers for any player, Lagares included.
You’re right, It’s ridiculous.
It’s ridiculous if the Mets aren’t signing up to take this deal, and willing to throw in more players.
I don’t think we’ve even see the worst of Juan yet. Last year’s .701 OPS was an absolute fluke, and very soon Lagares will probably be dropping under .600 for the year. He can’t hit major league pitching.
Guys with no offense don’t last in league at CF. As Brian has pointed out, there have been just 2 CF with an OPS less than .650 (Willy Tavaras and the other i can’t remember) and at least Tavaras could steal a ton of bases.
Meanwhile, you’re getting a cost controlled 20+ HR bat in an era where power is at such a premium (basically filling the role Michael Cuddyer was supposed to) and who has shown that last year is no fluke.
So on a team where every decision is filtered through a litany of magical math, the team sits down and cuts a deal with Lagares to play center field. Did SA make this play to get a club friendly deal to trade him? I suppose anything is possible, but that is not the sense I got, nor is it a pattern consistent with Alderson…otherwise Gee, Niese, Murphy all who could bring in some value in trade to get offense, or my preference, defense up the middle, would have been gone long ago. As an aside, Ive heard/read several interviews with Kevin Long, who thinks there is a lot of bat potential with Lagares. He is also still recovering from the muscle strain from the diving catch he made last week. Anyway, this isnt a knock on Martinez, who is a niece player, but so far is a 1 year anomaly, whose offense is part of a heavy-lumber juggernaut. Move him over to the whiffle-bat-land of Flushing, and Im nowhere near as confident he hits like in Detroit.
“the team sits down and cuts a deal with Lagares to play center field. Did SA make this play to get a club friendly deal to trade him?”
You’re acting like Sandy knows what he is doing and knows how to value players. When was the last time he gave out a multi year deal and got good value?
Let’s see…
DJ Carrasco – Huge bust
Franky frank- Bust
Granny – Overpaid
Cuddyer – Bust
Maybe for Arb eligible players he’s better at than FA’s
The other was Darren Lewis, who also was a stolen base threat.
put simply this is an absolutely absurd idea. The organization views Nimo as a long term corner outfielder. You just signed Juan to a club friendly extension and most all believe he has a top of the order offensive upside at CF and is clearly a + defender in a premium Defensive position and you want to ship him out. This may have been just a thought exercise but I’d say you just pulled a hammy with this exercise.
To trade Jaun would be a ridiculous over reaction to a slow start offensively when you’re a half game out of first 2 top offensive players are do back in the next week to 10 days 2 weeks at the outside. You need good position players but trading a long term proven contributor like Juan would be steve Phillips like.
A more reasonable idea would be to package Murph with Gee and or Niece to see what you can get for Offensive help once wright and TAD get back
They may view Nimmo as a corner outfielder because they currently have Lagares in the system. He’s certainly not pushing Lagares off CF. But that’s not saying he can’t handle the position. He’s played 339 games in the minors and 309 have been in CF. If they didn’t think he could play the position, they would have moved him already.
No, most do not believe Lagares is a top of the order player. He’s playing there out of necessity and still batting ninth other times.
A long-term proven contributor? Hardly long-term and hardly proven, unless you mean he’s proven to be well-below average offensively.
We need to give up the ghost that the Mets could package Murphy, Gee and Niese and get something worthwhile in return. That’s not going to happen.
I meant a long term option. that is a proven contributor.
Frankly I don’t think it is a ghost Gee on his own to get much is a joke always has been which is why he has not been traded. But to a team that views itself as a contender Murph plus Niece still on a good contract can bring back help at another position. Gee as a throw in with Murph may get a player to help but moving Jaun remains a panic move.
You are kidding right? i agree he’s still very undisciplined at the plate but the Mets don’t have a viable replacement..
J.D. plays in a hitters ball park and has the luxury of having Victor Martinez and Miggy hitting in front of him. I can imagine what his offensive numbers would be with Flores or Tejada hitting ahead or behind him. And why not move Nimmo instead? Cuddyer coming off the bench at 9 million+ isn’t going to happen for the financially challenged Met’s.
Lineup protection is huge in the “narrative as analysis” camp. In reality lineup protection is just not overly important. Read Tom Tango and others in “The Book” for information on this. Or you can read this excerpt:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14010
If the team had another great defensive center fielder, I’d give it a thought, but with question marks at second base and shortstop, I would rather not have another defensive question mark at centerfield.
Of course not, all are soon to be FA’s.
A few things:
* I believe in lineup protection (and own Tango’s book, btw), but I often think it’s more important who is hitting in front of you than behind you. Overall, it opportunity ripples in both directions.
* I’ve always suspected that Sandy doesn’t really love Juan Lagares, which is why he signed Chris Young last year, with the angle being that he’d take over CF and, yes, hit HRs too. Sandy loves walks, homers, and he doesn’t really care about defense. Unfortunately for Alderson, CY bombed & Lagares started hot and became a fan favorite, leaving the organization no choice but to accept him as the CFer.
* Nimmo is getting big; he’s not that fast; I don’t see him playing a quality CF in the MLB.
* I like Lagares a lot, but . . . I’d answer the phone if it rang.
JP
Alderson would have been derelict in his duties if he didn’t bring in someone capable of playing CF for 2014. Lagares was poor offensively in 2013 and it was far from given that he could do better. Alderson did a poor job planning for a backup to Lagares this year, trading the guy who was best suited for the position and holding on to a guy who struck out at an alarming rate and whose defensive reputation far outshone reality, simply because he was out of options.
The whole reason about writing this is because Lagares has value. People keep wishing about packaging Murphy and Gee and bringing back something good in return. That’s not going to happen. Lagares would bring back something worthwhile. But it’s nowhere near a slam dunk that it would be worth doing. But, like you said, you answer the phone.
“The whole reason about writing this is because Lagares has value.”
I’m actually even questioning this. A team that looks at Lagares has to still look at him as a prospect and wonder if he’ll be good enough to stick in the league full time. But unlike a prospect, he’s got a huge load of baggage ahead of him which is a contract that will get expensive in a few years and that will likely scare a bunch of teams off.
Most Met fans are way too biased to make an accurate valuation on him (myself included). It would be interesting if you had non-Mets friends in the blogosphere that would be willing to share their thoughts on the value of Lagares.
Lagares’ defense in 2013-2014 makes him valuable regardless of what he hits. He’s not at that level currently, either from defensive metrics or the eye test. His throwing is nowhere near as good as it’s been the past two years. He’s been banged up, so it could be a temporary thing.
At the end of the 2013 season, I still wrote a blog with Mike over at “2 Guys.” The Mets needed a SS, were utterly confused about 1B (remember, they started 2014 with a platoon of three guys), and the outfield was a running joke.
Our feeling then was 100% clear: at least CF was settled. By then Lagares had proven that he had an elite glove and an iffy bat. He needed a full year, at least, to see how it would develop. So I completely disagree here. Alderson’s big mistake was trying to mess with something that wasn’t broken, particularly when so much else needed to be addressed.
The glove is so great that if Lagares can hit a little bit — okay, maybe more than that — he instantly becomes when of the best all-around players in the game. My feeling at that time was write his name on the lineup card and let him play.
Lagares was in the position at the conclusion of 2013 where he had earned the starting position for Opening Day. They needed a competent reserve on the MLB roster in case he duplicated his hitting from the end of the previous season, where for over his final 200 PA, he hit worse than he’s hitting here in 2015. It’s great that you considered it problem solved then. I don’t think a responsible GM could have or should have done likewise.
It didn’t have to be the focus of the offseason but it certainly needed to be part of it.
Brian, remember, they signed CY and promised him 600 PAs. That, with EY being anointed the starting left fielder and leadoff hitter, and Granderson was the shiny new toy. Lagares wasn’t trusted by Alderson and if not for CY’s injury at the end of spring training, may have gone to minors or been a bench piece.
It seems like those that want to trade Lagares see him as a hindrance to the lineup. Those that don’t, see him as a plus glove. As I wrote above, in my opinion, the Smith for Templeton trade was a benchmark for discussion and San Diego regretted it. You can find guys that hit, but Lagares’ glove is unlike most others. Only Andrelton Simmons and Yadier Molina can qualify. Also remember, with Maddox’s glove in center the Phillies had Greg Luzinski trying to play left field, and they won with that! We could have put Kendrys Morales out there and been good. How many center fielders can do that for you and still maybe improve?
And Gus this year Molina is a shell of his former self defensively. At least we know that Lagares has a few more years (barring any significant injury) at that level of defense. You just can’t teach instincts. Some players have it. Some DH.
Don’t underestimate Molina’s value at handling the pitching staff and he can still throw runners out. Besides, he has become a better offensive player with years as well.
The big question is at what point will management feel his offense is too poor for all-world defense to make up for? In his final 218 PA of 2013, he batted .212 and had a .545 OPS. Only two guys since 2000 have gotten 600 PA in a season when they had an OPS beneath .600 for the year. It just wasn’t reasonable to expect the Mets or any team to buck this trend and not have a suitable replacement on hand.
I think you’re misremembering how it was going to play out with Lagares and the two Youngs. The odd man out at the beginning was going to be Eric Young, not Lagares. From MetsBlog: “According to Young, Sandy Alderson was very clear that he’ll be able to get 600 plate appearances playing mostly corner outfield, with a chance of playing center field.”
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/chris-young-talk-about-his-weak-2013-turning-the-page-in-ny/
Brian, that was Alderson’s selling point in December. Read Collins’ comments in March.
If Lagares was like Oquendo or Ordonez and hit low .200’s, then you have a better argument. What he needs is to buy Collins some drinks after work and remind him that he failed as a SS too and it would not matter if he’s hitting over .200 or not!
BTW, you sure stirred it up by musing a single thought!
Surely I don’t need to go back and recount all of the things that Collins says in Spring Training that turned out not to be true. Just this year he was talking about how Ruben Tejada was going to compete for the SS job!
And I will add – cheap, in fact that was and is my biggest reason for wanting him in center. You get the defense, that is a given, at a great price tag. For a team on a limited budget, like it or not, that is a big deal.
Upon reading the article (thank you) Granderson should not be in the lead off spot.
Juan doesn’t exhibit the patience and plate discipline to take that next step.
i don’t think it mattered whether they kept DenDek or Captain Kirk. They’re pretty much the same and neither was well suited for the role.
The Mets need offense and improved defense. I would not trade Lagares in season with Granderson and Cuddyer as my remaining outfielders unless I could get an offensive centerfielder that is above average defensively. So a ( Gee/Niese/Colon/Montero) + Lagares = an above average offensive/defensive CF. Otherwise you are creating further defensive issues on a team that already has three 3B playing the infield and two liabilities in the corner outfield position.
Hmmmmm, let’s break this down:
Lagares: all world defense in a premium position, struggles offensively and hasn’t improved much since he came up. Lagares has proven himself with multiple years of defensive excellence.
Martinez: not quite all-world offensively, but above average and solid defensively. Has only had one year of offensive success in the last three.
The last time a trade like this was made was Gary Templeton for Ozzie Smith, and who got the better of that one? Whitey Herzog gave Smith a big contract and when asked why he said: “What’s the difference if a player drives in 100 runs or saves 100 runs?”
While you may see where I’m going with this, I will point out a couple of things:
– Nimmo is not viewed as a MLB center fielder and already is headed for RF. He is viewed as not able to get good reads and doesn’t take the best routes.
– All teams need a balance of offense and defense. Having made screwed up free agents signings doesn’t mean you fix what isn’t broken. Fix what is broken: your lack of understanding that broken down players don’t usually explode at 36, just because you hit a lottery ticket with Marlon Byrd (that you didn’t even expect until you had no choice but to play him).
– Lagares has offensive upside, while Martinez isn’t expected to get any better than this in any facet. While Long says he can become better and compares him to Cano, that may also be quite optimistic. However, he knows better than us and a player Lagares is compared to (Carlos Gomez) also exploded at around this age.
– I have no problem if the Mets were to trade Lagares, but not for Martinez. If I give up Lagares, the outfielder I want back is A. J. Pollock. Pollock is very good defensively and has speed to bat at the top of the order. So, you downgrade slightly defensively, but make it up by having a better offensive player where you need him: at leadoff. My backup would be Michael Brantley, but I’m not in love with him for some reason.
I don’t think Brantly Martinez or Pollock are at all available so this is indeed all a thought exercise. In that spirit if I give up Juan I want equal value Brantly is the only one on the list I see as that given that he is only 2 years older and you would give up a little Defence for Offence with a guy who can play CF if I and the organization are right and Nimmo is a corner guy. That said I think Cleveland loves him so he is not going any where.
Now here in the real world I’ll say again trading Juan at this point does not make sense to me
Are you freaking kidding me? You have a guy who finished 3rd in the MVP balloting (and who has been even better this year) and you have to even think a second about trading Lagares for him?
I get that fans are a little biased on their own players, but this is absolutely insane.
Chris, if I’m trading Harvey, I want Bryant or Trout.
Name, I looked at the last 2+ years WAR on Fangraphs. Lagares was ranked 23rd in 1030 plate appearances, so I used that as a gauge and looked at the names around that spot. I really think that you don’t see how special Lagares is. Garry Maddux batted 7th for the Phillies for years, and I hated him because we couldn’t get a hit when the Mets played him. You are under appreciating Lagares, and will regret that if you just give him away. Like my argument last week in the Flores article, these players aren’t the reason the team is floundering, so address the weakness of LF, 2B, C, and 3B, and suddenly Lagares won’t be as bitter a pill.
And, if what Collins says about his power and Long about his potential comes to fruition, you will really be happy.
I think Bryant is certainly something you would talk about.
My point more than anything is working deals from depth. JD Mart for Lagares possibly addresses one issue, and then certainly leaves a big hole in the outfield, for which neither corner is providing decent defense or offense at needed levels. apparently letting balls land everywhere would be an acceptable return. It’s not for me.
I suggest we trade Matt Harvey. Few teams could unload an ace and survive, but we have depth and could ultimately absorb the loss and still have an incredible Rotation. His value is clearly at the ace status, and he is under control for several years. He would return a huge haul. Matt Harvey’s days as a Met are getting fewer by the second. He will never extend nor will we be able to get him as a FA. He is not beholden to the Mets in any way. Losing him for a draft pick is ridiculous. Look he’s already had TJ, and given how hard he throws, the second one ain’t far off.
Time to call Jed and Theo. what they get: Matt Harvey, Raphael Montero, dilson Herrera. What we get: Addison Russell, Starlin Castro, and Kyle Schwarber. Both sides may get some other smaller pieces to round out their systems.
A reporter once asked Bobby Bowden how important emotion was to winning football games. He said — My wife is the most emotional person I know and she can’t play football worth a darn.
he should have watched the 86 World Series!
Chris F, hold that thought, put it in your back pocket, and let’s revisit it in two years. It will be an interesting debate, but premature for now.
I think it’s fairly obvious that the Mets need to upgrade the offense and I have no problems with them making a move of this nature. I actually find it a rather creative approach. A playoff spot will ultimately be determined by whether or not the Mets can find that O, and any moves outside of trading Matz, I believe have to be considered. Martinez completely reworked his swing two years ago in the off-season and the results were very evident last year and I believe sustainable moving forward. The Mets can survive with Granderson in centerfield for the duration of 2015. The other option would be to search out a pending free agent and look to a rest-of-season rental. Will JUp become available as the Padres slide out of the race? The Giants have proven successfully that strong SP can win once in the playoffs. The Mets have to find a way to get into that post-season tournament and with Harvey and deGrom anchoring that rotation, the sky is the limit. Any moves, short of selling that young SP are worth exploring.
The other thing is this: The Tigers dont need a center fielder. They got Anthony Gose who is doing fine, and, like JD Mart, is getting the Detroit bounce by being lined up with a modern day Murderers Row. Dombrowski wouldnt even be interested in having that conversation.
From TFA
“Now, since this is a thought exercise, there’s no concern given here to if Detroit would do it.”
I guess we could sum everything up as: We should trade Lagares for a generic better hitter because hes one of our better players.
I picked Martinez because both he and Lagares had the exact same fWAR last year but they did it in entirely different ways. You’re too emotional about Lagares. You need to remove him from the equation. Pretend we’re talking about two other teams but with the same general guidelines.
Team A has an all-world defensive player who is not performing as well in a small sample on either side of the ball in 2015. And the team’s offense is really struggling. Is it worth it to trade the all-world fielder for a much stronger hitter and a poorer fielder?
If we assume the players are capable of exactly reproducing what they did a year ago – the answer should be that it wouldn’t make a difference. A run produced on offense should be no better than a run saved on defense. If they’re exactly the same (as they were last year) a trade should be nothing more than running in place.
Of course, no two players always reproduce what they did a season ago. And there’s plenty of room on either side of the proposed trade to put opinions.
Finally, there’s a huge difference between “Should the Mets entertain offers for Juan Lagares?” and “The Mets should trade Juan Lagares.” And since I’ve written a bunch of times on what the team should do without a question mark, you know that if I was convinced that it’s what the Mets should do that I would have written this completely different.
Like I said initially. Every player on the team, except DW (because of contractual and 10/5 rights), should always be listened to as a possible trade. Lagares clearly has considerable value, and so certainly would be viewed as a trade candidate. I got no issues with that.
However, ask whether the pitching staff likes Lagares in center field. We dont need to because we have comment after comment about how he allows them to make pitches with confidence knowing hes a piece of fly paper out there. I believe his range has been considered “interplanetary”. Sure hes had a couple misses, but these would be misses by miles for many defenders. I dont suppose players are lego blocks, capable of being inserted like baseball card numbers into teams without having collateral effects on the team, including things that look great. The whole is worth much more than the sum of its parts.
I didn’t even have to read this article to disagree with it.
That’s how bad decisions get made. While I don’t want to trade Lagares, it’s at least worth considering the gears involved in the machine.
This team is not trading Harvey right now, for anyone, under any circumstances. He is about the only thing they have selling any tickets (did you see the sea of empty seats against St. Louis all week?). He is a tremendous bargain for an ownership group living year-to-year and trying to stay ahead of their creditors.
A few years from now, who knows? But who cares, we might be wiped out by an Asteriod by then, or win a World Series. Matt Harvey is a great fun part of being a Mets fan right now.
Just enjoy him.
At the current pace, the Mets will draw approx. 2.4M this season which would constitute a second straight year of increased attendance. Now, if the Mets are in contention most of the season, that pace could very well accelerate. It’s all about winning, period
So… what idiot wouldn’t make this trade now? Lagares wouldn’t even get the conversation going for Martinez