Player A: 6’1”, 205 Lbs
Player B: 6’2”, 200 Lbs
Both players were drafted in 2012, one in the first round (Gavin Cecchini) and one in the second round (Matt Reynolds), but both could have a future in the Met infield. So which player is the one to watch?
Player A: .281/.348/.393 (4 Years in Minors)
Player B: .264/.332/.373 (4 Years in Minors)
As you can see, Player A has shown the better bat overall. Both players have similar power and patience in relation to their batting averages so clearly Player A is the winner. Not so fast!
Player A: .271/.327/.394 (2015, AAA)
Player B: .331/.387/.490 (2015, AA)
We now can probably guess that Player A is Reynolds and Player B is Cecchini, but doesn’t this show the disparity between two players at two different levels? Not quite. Reynolds plays in the Pacific Coast League where the average batting line is .268/.336/.408 and Cecchini is in the Eastern League where the line is .257/.325/.373. This means that Cecchini is having a better year in a harder league for hitters. Add to this that Player A just turned 24 and Player B just turned 21 and that Player B is a natural shortstop and the answer is clear. Met fans might be calling for the wrong player’s promotion.
AAA:
Steven Matz is effective, but less sharp – Matz keeps his line sparkling and clean but he gave up 7 hits and 4 walks in his last start and that’s less good.
Matt Reynolds is heating up again – He’s got a .793 OPS over his last 10 games and that could see him promoted if Ruben Tejada or Eric Campbell hit major slumps.
AA:
Luis Cessa tosses a gem – 7.2 IP, 4 Hits, 1 Walk and 8 Strikeouts leaves little to find fault with.
Michale Conforto is quick to make an impression – .429/.543/.750 in his first eight games at this level. Michael Cuddyer and Curtis Granderson better watch their backs this offseason.
A+:
John Gant making something of his promotion – He’s only made two starts at advanced A but he’s struck out 17 with a 0.86 WHIP.
Akeel Morris is still good – He has a 0.64 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his last 10 games.
Dominic Smith is still red hot – His hitting streak was broken but his 10 game OPS is .937 and that’s pretty great.
A:
Wuilmer Becerra has a lot of power – He’s got a .513 Slugging Percentage in a league known for sapping power.
Eudor Garcia wants you to learn his name – He’s rapidly earning prospect stock for himself in 2015.
Casey Meisner has a valid question – Why wasn’t he promoted to Port St. Lucie?
“If” Eric Campbell hits a major slump?
What about just a prolonged demonstration of the fact that he can’t play?
While reading the Cecchini-Reynolds comparison, I was thinking of the old Casey Stengel quote about Ed Kranepool and Greg Goossen, with Reynolds playing the part of Goossen.
I’m not sure why some people just refuse to see the obvious but Granderson is not going nowhere this year or the next and probably not the next,barring a severe injury. They’re not going to sit a guy making $15M/yr, it just won’t happen. Conforto is going to replace Cuddyer sometime next year or in 2017 when his contract expires.
There are always levels of these discussions, ranging from what the Mets will do, to what they should do, what they might do — to even what the writer thinks he or she would do.
My feeling is that Conforto could possibly force the timetable to move, and that guys like Granderson and Cuddyer might be traded to the right partner, under the right terms.
But yes, sure, knowing this is Sandy Alderson, it’s safe to say that he’ll probably do very little and nothing dramatic. He’s in no worry. Today I read my first “2017” target date from a fan. Which strikes me as hysterical. There was a time when the folks calling for patience circled “2014” on their calendars.
Cecchini is putting together a very good year. Do you think the future Met infield could be Duda-Hererra-Cecchini- Flores ? With Wright out, it may be. It could also be solid defensively. Of course Cecchini and Hererra need to bat near .300 in the majors.
Becerra was named SAL player of the week. I am jumping on the bandwagon after seeing him play last week, He looks like a solid prospect. Imagine the rewards from the RA Dickey trade.
Becerra, Garcia and Meisner should all get promotions after the June 23rd SAL All Star game.
Conforto continues to impress with a blistering start to Double-A. The Mets seem to have a durge of offensive talent in Triple-A, but several younger players just below that level with should help in the next year or two. Unfortunately, the NY squad could use those reinforcement sooner rather than later.
Is this the same David Groveman that called for my head in the offseason when I said that Gavin Cecchini was due for a breakout season? I’ll say, things have changed.
On a serious note, Cecchini looks to be a guy that can simply hold down a position for a few years: nothing more. If Wright is out for a very long time (retirement), then the Mets will likely move Flores over to third base and attempt to shove a minor leaguer into a starting job. My fear is that someone will be rushed to majors in the next year or so- whether it be Cecchini, Reynolds, or Amed Rosario- and it will not end well.
True, I did not see Cecchini breaking out. I maintain that he did not belong on most Top Prospect lists prior to the season. At this point, he does.
Julian, you say that Cecchini “looks like” he can hold the position for a few years, “Nothing more”…. I want ask
1. Have you seen him Play?
2. What provides youw with such a strong opinion?
The guy was a top half of the 1st round pick— he has a 860 OPS as a 21 year old at AA. with a Rep as a Plus SS.
I am going to watch some Bingo Games when they swing back to Trenton and Reading—it’s a feeding frenzy for watching 3 prospects— Nimmo, Conforto and Ceccini.
I have not seen him play. I have this opinion simply through the numbers that I have studied during his minor league career. Do I know for sure that he will be a bust or a superstar? Of course not. No one does, but that’s what prospects are all about. We’ve seen no names like Lucas Duda rise to stardom and guys like Philip Humber never rise to the occasion.
Cecchini is having a good season, no one is disputing this, but his track record suggests that he is due for a regression- in addition to his crazy .350 BABIP. There is no doubt that he has bounced back from mediocrity, and he will probably deserve a promotion by the end of the season. That being said, his 41 errors over the past two seasons and lack of speed suggest that he will never be a major game changer in the big-leagues- as a starting shortstop.
Once again, this is just my opinion. This is also coming from the guy who predicted this break-out year back in December:
where do we find BABIP stats for MILB?
btw…regression to 300 BABIP still lands him at around 800 OPS
The player pages on FanGraphs list them. Here’s the link for Cecchini:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657876&position=SS
Also, the BABIP “rules” that apply in MLB don’t necessarily follow for those in the minors. I’d be concerned about the .400+ rates that Matt Reynolds put up last year in both BNG and LVG but a .350 one in the minors is not as outrageous as it would be in the majors.
Congrats to pitcher Casey Meisner, relief pitcher David Roseboom and second baseman Johnathan Johnson of the Savannah Sand Gnats for being named to the SAL all star team.