Bear with me for a moment, but let’s imagine the Mets are not in a deep freefall with no end in sight. Let’s assume they didn’t cough up an 11-0 streak and could hit their way out of a paper bag. Pretend the New York Mets are legitimate playoff contenders this season.
Better isn’t it? Unfortunately, we’ve still got a quandary on our hands. The Mets have way too much starting pitching, even with Rafael Montero rehabbing, Zack Wheeler recovering from Tommy John surgery, Steven Matz obliterating Las Vegas and a surprisingly ineffective Dillon Gee demoted to Triple-A.
Both Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom are proving to be young dynamos, with Noah Syndergaard quietly proving to be more boom than bust. Bartolo Colon not only drinks daily from the Fountain of Youth, but apparently he found the Fountain of Hitting too. Jonathon Niese has been the weakest link of the five, but even he’s rattled of four consecutive quality starts without a win.
Ownership and management promised Mets fans a rebuilt club that would continually sell tickets for October games. The tradeoff for no revenge for 2006-2008 was excellent pitching and a home-grown team that would make the NL East quake. The pitching finally arrived, but now comes the tricky part – saying good-bye. Baseball teams improve themselves by dealing from a strength to shore up a weakness.
The Mets must trade a starting pitcher away for a position player.
News outlets began picking up a story Tuesday about the Chicago Cubs seriously investigating major league pitching options. They’re rumored to be inquiring everywhere, but the Mets were specifically listed. There’s also writing on the wall the Cubbies were considering dealing Javier Baez to New York before breaking a ring finger on June 7 and earning a trip to the DL for up to eight weeks.
Does Baez do anything for the Mets? Is he worth a package fronted by Niese? The short answer is probably.
Here’s a quick scouting report for ninth overall pick in the 2011 draft. Baez is incredibly aggressive at the plate with high strikeouts, plus-plus power and a healthy batting average anywhere not Wrigley Field. His average speed translates to low double-digit stolen bases and questionable range at shortstop; a solid arm means a transition to third base is likely in his career. He was excelling at Triple-A Iowa after a miserable showing through 52 games with Chicago last year.
Javier has reportedly somewhat fallen out of favor in Chicago, which could be a boon to whomever acquires his services. Throughout his career, Baez has shown a strong batting average, great power and decent speed at almost every level of the minors. A .188/.244/.400 slash through 23 games at High-A in 2013 turned into a .274/.338/.535 slash through 76 games in 2014. And considering Iowa has the strongest offensive Park Factor at 101 through the Cubs farm system – 100 is neutral, these numbers are legitimate and it’d be more of an anomaly for him not to break out in the bigs. Throw in the fact he’s under team control through 2017 and wouldn’t be free agent eligible until 2021, and Baez becomes even more attractive.
Meanwhile, the Mets would hand a mid-rotation starter a plane ticket to another city after seven years with the organization that drafted him in the seventh round in 2005. Niese owns a 3.89 ERA, 1.365 WHIP and averages just 170 innings a season the last five years. Simply put, he’s a decent option for a no. 3 or 4 starter with the occasional gem. Signing a five-year/$25 million deal before the 2012 campaign, Niese’s contract also includes a $10 million and $11 million team option in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Earning a tick over 2 Wins Above Replacement the previous five years, the southpaw is still something of a value with a win costing $6 million each last season.
Mets management – remember, we’re still imagining they’re mildly competent – is unlikely to replace defensively-challenged shortstop Wilmer Flores with another, so Baez would likely slide over to the hot corner. That could work well with All-Star David Wright inactive until pigs fly, but veteran Daniel Murphy has earned first crack at the starting job when he returns very soon from the DL as rookie sensation Dilson Herrera tries to prove his worth at second base.
Barring another trip to the minors for Baez, New York could shuffle players around to create an infield with the Cub import at third and Flores at short. Both young Latinos seemingly have a lot of growing to do, but Met fans could suffer through serious growing pains along the way. Baez’ questionable range is better masked at third, but New Yorkers have long been spoiled by the glovework of Wright. The Mets should also sandwich Flores’ poor range with plus fielders at second and third, not more of the same. Neither young player has the patience to take many walks, while Flores hits into a lot of double plays and Baez whiffs, both killing rallies.
Evaluating the trade purely from a one-on-one perspective would be a gain for New York. The promise is there for a Major League bat at a time when offense is at a premium and young pitching is replacing veterans in Queens. From an organizational point of view, Baez would best be served by gaining at-bats in Double-A Binghamton since Vegas favors hitters so until he forces his way back up. Once he’s on the 25-man roster, the Mets will have to make a decision with Wright, Murphy, Flores and Herrera.
When Baez was healthy I would have called the rumor crazy. With Baez hurt I can see a deal happening and would not be shocked to see both Niese and Gee included.
My question is, “Could that be enough?”
My gut still says the Cubs want more and I don’t see what the Mets could give.
I’m gonna throw this out there right up front, I’m not necessarily suggesting Niese for Baez straight up. I am suggesting the Cubs may be super low on Baez and Niese could be the centerpiece of a package to get him.
Carry on.
Color me interested.
It’s funny, I noticed that the Cubs moved Baez to 3B when they sent him to the minors and instantly began to wonder if something was in the works.
Five days in, he got hurt, so that kind of shelved that.
Baez is an intriguing talent that could go either way. That power! Those strikeouts!
If the Cubs want more give them Gee.
If I were the Cubs, I’d be thinking Montero, Fulmer, etc.
He would be the last guy I’d want from the Cubs he is a strikeout machine still I do the deal because I desperately want Niese gone to bring up Matz.Hell yes I include Gee.I would send him to the minors and build up his trade value for another deal down the road thinking he is a better trading piece than Niese.
I just don’t see why a poor defensive player, high strikeout rate would be an improvement over what we have now. No on Baez.
I don’t know what has happened with Cuddeyer. We knew that he was only an average fielder but he has become a real problem with his low average, low power and propensity to hit into double plays. Maybe a platoon would improve production from LF.
Top of my head, I recall that Baez hit something like 37 HRs in the minors a year or two ago.
I realize he’s looked horrific in short spurts for the Cubs. Poster boy for the guy who will swing at anything.
Speaking of “hunting strikes,” that was our own Lucas Duda going down without ever taking the bat off his shoulder in the 8th last night, Mets down by a run. He took a 2-0 fastball down the pipe. Then took two almost-impossible pitches to hit on the outside corner.
I guess he’s still hunting for a pitch he likes that he can drive.
Isn’t that the philosophy? Wait for a meatball?
I say do it just so: (1) Niese can be set free, (2) we can salary dump the ~10M$ hes owed, (3) his roster spot can be had by Matz who is out of any reason to be in AAA, and (4) maybe Baez can be taught to hit for more than power (hes cost controlled for the foreseeable future, so the deal is an easy one to take).
Some constructive feedback: I’d suggest avoiding phrases like “young Latinos” unless this characterization is somehow important to the story…
Have to do this. Anytime you are adding talent you must, because it’s what everyone is after. Hence the Braves’ deal this past weekend. Niese is a serviceable arm, and the Cubs need one. Go for it.
Definitely have to do this, although I think the Mets are going to add a prospect or two in order to get Baez.
I would hold out for an established bat. Niese has pitched well enough to be a strong 5th starter on any team. We just can’t hit. Send Niese and Gee to the Padres for Justin Upton and find him some time in the outfield platooning with cuddeyer. Same two and some minor leaguers to Cincy for Frasure. We need a real bat to save this season not a prospect.
Niese and montero for this kid? If the year was 2014 than sign me up.. but unfortunately a trade like this just doesn’t make sense now b/c Baez can’t help the Mets this year.