Following a tumultuous first half of winning and losing streaks, injuries and debuts, pitching highs and batting lows, a suspension, a career-threatening condition and a flurry of trade rumors, four days of rest for all but All-Star pitcher Jacob deGrom was a welcome respite for this Mets team. And now it’s time to come out of their restful break like a slumbering bear woken by an air horn. The start of the second half presents a huge test for this team with 10 straight days of games against the three National League division leaders. Buckle your seat belts.
Scene 1 – St. Louis
Over the past decade and a half, the St. Louis Cardinals (56-33) have established themselves as the best-run team in Major League Baseball. Since 2000 they’ve made the playoffs 11 of out of 14 seasons, with four pennants and two World Series titles. Most teams, after losing a franchise player and future Hall-of-Famer like Albert Pujols, go into rebuilding mode. The Cardinals used the payroll savings to bolster their roster with smart free agent signings and have locked up many of their homegrown stars to long-term deals to keep them in contention for years to come. The fact that they have the best record in baseball in spite of the recent death of their top prospect, a season ending injury to their ace pitcher Adam Wainwright and serious injury to key batter Matt Adams speaks volumes about the depth and resolve of this ball club. With quality starting (Lance Lynn, John Lackey, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha all have sub-3 ERAs), relieving (Trevor Rosenthal has 26 saves and lefty setup man Kevin Siegrist has been unhittable), hitting (Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter both have .800+ OPS) and defense (perennial Gold Glove catcher Yadier Molina), this is a team to be reckoned with. The series opener will feature Noah Syndergaard vs. Lynn. The Saturday game will be a battle of veteran arms with Bartolo Colon and Lackey taking the hill. The series concludes Sunday with Jon Niese vs. either Martinez or Wacha.
Scene 2 – Washington
The heavy division favorite Nationals (48-39) got off to a rough start in April, but have been playing good ball the last few months. Slugger Bryce Harper (1.168 OPS) is having an MVP season and free agency jackpot winner Max Scherzer (.78 WHIP) is having a Cy Young season. Those two, along with starter Jordan Zimmerman (3.22 ERA), closer Drew Storen (27/29 saves) and third baseman Yunel Escobar (.321 BA) have really carried the team in spite of injuries to key players like Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon and Denard Span, and pitchers Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals find themselves atop the National East also in spite of a horrific first half by shortstop Ian Desmod (.211 BA, 20 errors). The scary part is that this team is just about to hit its stride as its now playing with a near-complete roster for the first time all season. It will be extremely challenging for the Mets to overtake the Nationals for the division, but head-to-head wins will go a long way – starting with six games between them in late July.
Scene 3 – New York (vs. Los Angeles)
With baseball’s best one-two punch in Clayton Kershaw (1.02 WHIP) and Zack Greinke (.84 WHIP), it’s no surprise that the Los Angeles Dodgers (51-39) find themselves in first place in the NL West at the All-Star break. The rest of the rotation has held its own in spite of injuries to Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy. Closer Kenly Jansen has been dominant. The offense has plenty of depth and has been led by first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (18 HR, 55 RBI), rookie center fielder Joc Pederson (20 HR), and ex-Met third baseman Justin Turner (.915 OPS). The Dodgers, impressively, have seven players with a .340+ OBP. In contrast, the Mets have just two. The Dodgers have dealt with their share of adversity this season too, with the pitching injuries and the Yasiel Puig soap opera. The Dodgers also have some stiff competition in their division from the seemingly always good San Francisco Giants. Despite it all, the Dodgers will be a real test for the Mets, even on their home turf.
Following this brutal 10-game stretch the Mets will have a day to catch their breath on Monday, July 27 before continuing their home stand against the Padres and Nationals. That may be a day off for the players, but the front office is likely to be busy fielding phone calls about trade deadline moves. How the team fares in those critical first 10 games out of the box will help determine how aggressive or passive we are in shaping the roster for the final playoff push.
If the Mets can survive this opening challenge, the schedule really eases up the rest of the way. Their second-half opponents’ .476 combined winning percentage is the third-lowest mark in baseball, behind only the Marlins and Padres. Let’s go Mets!
We’ll miss Scherzer and Fister in D.C. which works to our advantage. Would be absolutely beyond amazing to go 7-3 and prepare for a sweep of the Phils.
If the Mets can go 5-5 the next 10 games I would consider it a success. The important Nat series coming up with the Mets three best pitchers scheduled has to be a 2 of 3 other wise it will be difficult to make up the ground. That leaves 1/3 vs the Cards and a home split 2 of 4 from the Dodgers.
I am very dissappointed in Sandy for not bringing in a bat before these ten games. I can’t bear the thought of losing 1-0 games to the Nats again. Even if the
Mets slip again, they should still be buyers because as you pointed out, the Mets are playing the third easiest schedule the remainder of the way and could still factor into the play in game. It would be too frustrating if nothing is done and the fans are forced to wait until 20??.
It’s all about the pitching matchups, since the offense is near league-worst. Niese v. Martinez or Wacha does not work in our favor, which puts more pressure on Syndergaard to get a win.
Whoops… Right, today is Saturday. Losing track of time. OK, Syndergaard lost. Not good. Next up Bartolo. Hold off the sweep. Because I have no confidence in Niese against Martinez or Wacha.