Lack of upgrades coming back to bite the Mets

Well, Mets fans, we are again at a familiar All-Star break juncture. We’ve arrived at the crossroads of “the team has sort of been okay” and “will Sandy Alderson do anything to help the team at the deadline?” We’ve been here many times over the last half decade with this team. If we stick to history, though, the answer to the acquisition question points to a resounding “no.”

In fact, during his tenure the only transaction that Alderson has made to “improve” the major league team anywhere near the trade deadline was trading Collin McHugh for Eric Young Jr. in June 2013. Of course, when critiquing the lack of deadline activity (beyond salary dumps and trades for prospects) you have to consider the team’s position in two respects.

First, the team was clearly in a cost-cutting-sort-of-rebuilding mode when Alderson was brought in to right the ship. Early on he was not going to take on huge salary commitments and the farm didn’t have the chips to bring back major, cost-controlled talent. The debate about whether the team should have just gone full rebuild, as well as how borderline dishonest the team has been on where it stands in this regard, is beyond the scope of this article. Suffice it to say, the first years of Alderson’s tenure were not going to be competitive.

Second, the team’s performance up to the break and projected performance after the break need to be considered. Specifically, the team’s record heading into the break and projected performance after it were certainly taken into account when considering bringing in and shipping out talent (right?). The table below illustrates the Mets’ records before and after the break since 2011, Alderson’s first year at the helm.

As the table above shows, this is the first season since 2012 that the team has been above .500 at the break. Again, in 2011 and 2012 the team was shedding salary and didn’t have the bullets to improve the roster. Alderson’s front office was focused on bringing down salary commitments while the Wilpons were scrambling to maintain ownership of the team. Even in 2013, despite flirting with the possibility of signing a big free agent like Michael Bourn, the team didn’t add any significant pieces to the major league team either before the season or at the deadline.

Even if you could explain away 2011-2013, what about 2014? The team was only five games under .500 at the break, with soon-to-be gold-glover Juan Lagares exciting fans and soon-to-be Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom firmly into his debut. True, the team was seven and a half games back in the NL East and six games back in the Wild Card on July 31st. It’s not like the team was going to get much better after the break anyway, right? Well, the team went 34-33 during the second half. It was the first time since 2008 that they had a record above .500 after the break. Oh what could have been.

Beyond all of that, there now appears to be a cumulative effect that is coming back to bite them. Sure, there were no major bats available last year that the team could have realistically traded for at the time. But instead of marginal improvements to the roster over the last few seasons, Alderson did absolutely nothing. Now he’s left with fans clamoring for one big move. Unfortunately, with the state of the offense and injuries, even one big move still may not be enough to get the team over the hump.

Had the roster been improved incrementally over the last few seasons with even just very strong role players and bench pieces, a Ben Zobrist-type of acquisition this season could have meant much more to the team’s post season chances than it would now. Alderson has been notoriously gun-shy about trading his pitching depth for offensive help and has now backed this team into a corner.

Maybe Alderson will surprise us all with a series of amazingly smart moves before the deadline this year. That would be nice. Don’t bet your money on that horse, though.