Jon Niese comes into tonight’s game with a 3.36 ERA, which ranks 22nd among qualified NL hurlers, or an SP#2 by this metric. That’s pretty much the same performance Niese has given the Mets since 2012. In his last 102 starts, Niese has a 3.47 ERA. Yet all you hear is that he’s a fifth starter or an injury risk. Since 2012, Niese ranks T39th in MLB in starts (102) and his ERA ranks 26th among those with at least 500 IP.
The pessimists talk about reduced velocity and lowered arm angles but all Niese does is go out and battle and give the team a chance to win. His strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff but Niese just continues to make adjustments and thrive. This year he has the highest ground ball percentage (54.7) of his career, which is the 15th-best mark in the majors. He’s also throwing more changeups than ever, with a 12.9% rate, a marked difference from 2012 when Niese threw the pitch just 3.8% of the time.
Niese had a rough four-game stretch in May, when he allowed 20 ER in 20 IP. But, just like he did after a similar stretch in 2014, Niese has made a remarkable turnaround. Last year, he allowed 16 ER over 25 IP but proceeded to finish the year with a 3.19 ERA over his final nine games. Right now Niese has a 2.28 ERA over his last 55.1 IP.
GRANDERSON SEARCHES FOR RESPECT – Earlier in the year, it seemed like half of the fan base was complaining about Granderson being a drag on the offense, despite all evidence to the contrary. Now, with most of the hitters mired in deep slumps, one doesn’t hear those complaints, as Granderson sits with a team-best OPS among those not on the DL. Now, the complaints have shifted as to how he’s not worth his contract. Granderson signed a four-year/$60 million deal and here in the middle of year two, he’s on pace to provide value over his deal.
According to the FanGraphs dollar values, Granderson earned $9.2 million in 2014. But here in 2015, he’s already been worth $19.9 million. That’s $29.1 million of value returned, with still one-third on the season to go. Given how dreadful his first month as a Met was, it’s remarkable that he’ll finish year two with excess value provided. But Granderson has been extremely consistent since May 1, 2014. He finished last year with a .760 OPS over the season’s final five months and has a .766 mark this year.
DUDA HOPES FOR BETTER DAYS – Lucas Duda has been so bad for so long, that it’s easy to forget how good he was the first two months of the year. For those who may not believe it, Duda finished May with a .934 OPS. But since then he has a .549 OPS in his last 182 PA. He’s hitting for neither average (.167) nor power (.102 ISO) and he has a 29.1 K%. Duda is still drawing walks at a decent clip (11.0%) but he’s watching too many strikes and swinging at too many balls. Unfortunately, this Ike Davis disease is afflicting most of the club, not just Duda.
THE JULY HITS LEADER – It’s no secret how bad the Mets’ offense has been lately. Case in point – Wilmer Flores leads the team in hits this month with 22. That’s a solid hit total, especially with a week to play. But the problem is that 18 of those hits were singles and the other four were doubles. And with only four walks, Flores has a .685 OPS during this hot stretch where he’s reached base safely in 14 of 18 games. What happens when the singles don’t fall in? It’s been 141 PA since his last homer.
DARK TIMES FOR DARK HELMET – Alex Torres has allowed runs in four of his last six appearances and is in the running for the reliever Mets fans want to see the least come in from the bullpen. Torres has been terrible in handling the first batter. In 37 games, the first batter to face Torres has a .930 OPS. Remarkably, that number is better than it was a month ago. Torres has retired the first batter in all six of his July appearances. Now it’s the guys coming up next that are doing him in. Torres has a 7.94 ERA in July and that does not include four unearned runs that he allowed to score.
Jon Niese is the most predictable pitcher in terms of stat line the Mets have. Consistently the same line year in and year out. He’s the Murphy of the rotation.
Yep. Both underrated and disrespected by the fan base despite putting up above average numbers and viewed by the majority fan base as guys that must be used as trade chips.
I really don’t understand all of the hate for Niese from around the league. Sure, injury concerns are there as he’s had his fair share. He’s been a solid if at times frustrating piece to the rotation.
Speaking of dollar value, and even though he’s having a bit of a down year in terms of fWAR, he’s already been worth $6.5 million. Just a half million short of his actual 2015 salary. Point is, if Niese was a free agent after this season it’s very likely he’d get a multi-year deal in the realm of $10-12 mil per.
I feel like all of the negative talk is from other front offices trying to devalue him for trade purposes. He’s certainly not on par with some of the available pitchers, but he definitely has a ton of value in a vacuum.
Yet after 2 years of dangling for trades he’s still a Met. Clearly he has little trade value. He’s fine for what he is: a back end of the rotation guy who eats innings. Shoulders and pitchers don’t mix well regardless of what he has done recently. Every inning we squeeze out that’s good is fantastic.
Clearly, you didn’t bother reading the article.
From the first paragarph:
“Jon Niese comes into tonight’s game with a 3.36 ERA, which ranks 22nd among qualified NL hurlers, or an SP#2 by this metric. That’s pretty much the same performance Niese has given the Mets since 2012. In his last 102 starts, Niese has a 3.47 ERA. Yet all you hear is that he’s a fifth starter or an injury risk. Since 2012, Niese ranks T39th in MLB in starts (102) and his ERA ranks 26th among those with at least 500 IP”
TC’s comment about Conforto was ” sometimes young players energize the team”.A younger manager might also energize the team.Just sayin’.
I agree with Sandy (mark that down) that if Niese is undervalued by other teams then don’t trade him. The Mets have 5 young studs on the roster but was it a freudian slip that Alderson said he is not trading any of his four young arms. Four studs and Niese works . When the debate was Ike or Duda, I thought Ike had more trade value and should have been traded. I have similar thinking here. Trade one of the five and get truer value. Of course, this is an option in 2016 and not 2015. They pay Colon $10M without complaint yet Niese is locked up at that price for many future years and is the better pitcher. Sandy did a good job with that contract.
All one can ask for is that a player earns his paycheck. In 2014 Granderson did not but in 2015 he is making up the difference. Now if they would only move him down in the order.
Duda also needs to sit a few games. He is not helping the team at this point.
To my chagrin and to Name’s disdain, Flores is the Met’s hit leader. He may be seeing bench time with the two new additions.
Alex Torres should be the next demotion. BTW he is not a LOOGY Terry.
It’s going to be very interesting to see how Collins makes out the lineup going forward. Conforto’s got to play, so that essentially pushes Kelly Johnson to the infield. Did the Mets acquire both of these guys to sit on the bench while Wright’s out? If not, who sits? Do they prefer Murphy over Flores at 2B? Do they prefer Tejada over Flores at SS? Will Kelly Johnson get time at 1B? Will Uribe play anywhere besides 3B?
Just a ton of questions. We should be happy we’ve got a savant in the dugout to handle it.
I think they still need one more move, a RH outfield bat. Parra or, wow, Gomez.
My sense is that Atlanta really wanted to move Johnson, who has been complaining about his reduced role all season. He doesn’t really do much for the Mets either. I’d love to see them include him as a piece in the next deal.
My best guess would be that Uribe plays a lot at 3B. In particular, he crushes LHP. Murphy can sub there. I’d leave Tejada alone at SS, with Flores getting some limited time as backup. And I’d go with Murphy at 2B, giving time for Flores here and there.
Competitive pressure. See who responds.
Flores back at SS would be a step in the wrong direction, IMO.
The outfield is now all LH hitters except for Lagares (and Campbell, if you want to put a lousy guy out there), and Juan might need TJ surgery. Watching Lagares play this season, I sure hope he’s injured! I really feel like Gomez solves that riddle, though Parra could help. My thinking is that Cuddyer’s knee isn’t going to magically get better, but you never know. To me, the area they can improve is CF. If Lagares truly needs surgery, this would be the time for it.
My wish was for Conforto to be up sooner, so the organization would have a better idea of what they’ve got in him short-term.
But to your point, yes, TC will be scratching his head before every game trying to figure it out.
In short: I hope Sandy continues the makeover. Tons of chips still on the table.
JP that is my take also. I don’t think TC is going to handle this too well. The last three moves are better for a Valentine/Johnson type manager.