The week leading up to the 2015 trade deadline will forever be part of Mets folklore. While it will certainly be highlighted by the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes and Wilmer Flores’ heroics, it was kicked off by the team promoting top prospect Michael Conforto. It seemed at the time that a promotion for the young left fielder would only come with the Mets kicking and screaming, but the team softened their stance as their ridiculous “medicate then wait and see” regiment for Michael Cuddyer moved towards its unsurprising conclusion. When it became apparent that Cuddyer would not be returning to the lineup and with the offense in full tailspin, the team pulled the trigger on July 23rd.
So how has he fared in the big leagues so far? First and foremost, he’s played a whopping nine games with 36 plate appearances, so ridiculously small sample sizes apply. Still, we can take a quick look at how he’s acclimated to this point. Perhaps unsurprisingly, in his limited time he’s already provided more value than some players that have spent much more time with the team. His 0.2 fWAR is already on par with the likes of Kevin Plawecki and Kirk Nieuwenhuis and ahead of Eric Campbell (-0.2) and Michael Cuddyer (0.0).
Keep in mind that WAR is a counting stat, though, and there’s plenty of time for Conforto to fall flat and regress in value. Of course he has plenty of time to improve on it as well, even with the potential for reduced playing time with the addition of Cespedes and eventual return of Cuddyer.
On that topic, reports indicated and manager Terry Collins had seemed to confirm that Cespedes will play in center field with Conforto in left when facing right-handed pitching. This would mean, barring abject failure of either his bat or Cespedes’ ability to keep playing in center, Conforto would be the de facto starting left fielder for most of the rest of the season. However, there appears to be chatter that he may yet be optioned upon Cuddyer’s return with the team facing several lefties in the coming weeks. On to the (limited) numbers!
Conforto’s triple slash currently sits at .233/.333./.433 with one homerun, three doubles, and eight RBI. That’s a very solid overall debut for a 22-year-old jumping straight to the majors from AA. However, within those numbers lie some inconsistent performances. After going 0-3 in his debut, he went 4-4 with two doubles in the Mets’ 15-2 offensive extravaganza. Unfortunately, he followed that up by going hitless in his next 12 at-bats over four games. He struck out five times in that span and walked twice. Since his four-hit game on July 25th, and including his vital RBI double in the ninth inning of last night’s win against the Rays, he’s slashed .130/.250./304 over his last seven games.
Beyond the normal rate statistics we see a player that has, so far, been as advertised in terms of approach at the plate. His 4.33 pitches per plate appearance, should he continue it over the course of a season, would place him near the top of the league. Obviously this could simply be the byproduct of major league pitchers attempting to make him chase pitches out of the zone. In fact, and according to FanGraphs, Conforto has only seen roughly 37% of pitches inside the strike zone. That’s on level with Jay Bruce, Bryce Harper, and Lucas Duda. This isn’t a case of pitchers being afraid, of course, but rather attempts to get the young player to swing at junk.
Conforto has shown a knack for not taking the bait, as he’s only swung at roughly 20% of pitches outside the zone. That would put him near the top of the league as well. They’ll start challenging him more if he continues to show such discipline, which is when we’ll really start to get a good idea of what he can do with good pitches to hit. Even so, his 11.1 BB% is great and his 22.2 K%, while just a bit higher than you’d like to see, is still right around league average. Impressively, this is all being done with a below-average BABIP of .273, which is not quite in line with what he had in just under the equivalent of a full minor league season across three levels from 2014-2015.
We’re still at the very early stages and, with such small samples, a 4-4 day can offset a couple of poor performances by itself. His performance and approach thus far are positive signs for a team in need of a young, controllable offensive piece, though. Reports indicate that the team is seriously considering moving Cuddyer to more of a bench role upon his return, the recent chatter about left-handers notwithstanding. This would be a welcome surprise and provide Conforto with more opportunity to prove he belongs, but he’ll need to continue to improve to show that he is ready for this level.
He was saved from being optioned to AAA by a Nieuwenhuis trip to the disabled list but will need to show more consistent results if he wants to remain on the roster through August. If not, he should certainly be back when rosters expand in September. At the very least he’s not been entirely overmatched in his brief time in the show, which is a very encouraging sign for 2015 and beyond.
This appears to be one of those actually frequent instances when what is good for the team may not be good for a young player’s development. I would like to see Conforto get 200 or more Plate Appearances over the rest of the season. There are dues to be paid in breaking in a youngster, and I’m all for getting it over quickly. Doesn’t sound like it is going to happen.
That’s the minor concern; a greater one is how being platooned will affect Conforto’s development. Michael doesn’t have a pronounced drop-off against the lefthanders — yet. I would hate to see him develop one because he didn’t face lefty’s in the major league contests.
But hell, I’d probably do the same thing if it was up to me. There is a Division title on the line here.
The kid has a long way to go. That being said, exposing him to a winning culture this early in his career could go a long way to keep it up as the years go by. I would keep him as a glorified platoon hitter the rest of the year. Then, keep him in a loose platoon next year with Michael Cuddyer. Overall, Cuddyer shouldn’t play much next year- opening a spot for Conforto in the long term.
Small sample size, Cuddyer 0-7 in the minors. Cuddyer should get some more rehab games to find his stroke and timing.
Conforto is a better player than Campbell. Conforto is the future and Campbell is not. Conforto will learn more about pennant drive pressure (even if he is on the bench) than a few more AAA at bats. Experiencing this atmosphere is a unique opportunity for him. Conforto should stay up until Wright is ready and then the issue should be revisited.
Cespedes ability to play CF has also cost Kirk a roster spot when he comes off the DL.
Interestingly, Keith and Ron were talking a bit about this during last night’s game. Their take on how pitchers were approaching him was in contrast to mine here. They said that big league pitchers were actually pitching to him like a veteran (rather than trying to get an inexperienced rookie to chase). Still, he’s going to need to learn how to adjust on the fly. Going to be quite a challenge for him.
I like what I see from Conforto. Definitely going to be a solid player once he gets more at-bats and makes adjustments. If he were to be in the lineup once Cuddyer gets back, then I see no reason to demote him, but if Cuddyer gets most of the starts in left, then it makes sense to send Conforto down to Las Vegas.
Considering he has had some great games, the talent is there, and hopefully he can turn into an outfielder who can hit 20 or more homers while providing a high average.
Unless he’s going to play everyday, I’d send Conforto down for now. He’ll be up Sept 1 regardless. Campbell is only useful as a 25th player who can fill in everywhere. Now with Kelly Johnson around I’m not sure he has a role on thia team.