One of the hardest things a manager has to do is run his bullpen and there are very few skippers who do it well year in and year out. There are a number of reasons for this and one of them is the sample size issue. It’s rare for a current reliever to exceed 80 innings in a season. If a starting pitcher like Jacob deGrom has a couple of bad games, he has plenty of starts and innings to make up for it. If a reliever has a couple of bad outings, he won’t have the same number of innings to recover. A relief pitcher who has pitched well in the overwhelming number of his appearances can look bad because of this and the manager may overreact to a small sample.
One of the challenges for a manager and general manager is to determine if a relief pitcher is having a couple of bad outings or if something has significantly changed with the pitcher and you should expect a new level of performance going forward. Because we can say with 99% certainty that all relief pitchers are going to hit bumps in the road during each and every season.
The best relief season in New York Mets history was turned in by lefty Tug McGraw in 1972. That season, he pitched in 54 games, threw 106 innings, had a 1.70 ERA, limited opposing batters to a .542 OPS and according to Baseball-Reference had a 6.519 WPA. But even in that dominating season, McGraw went through a seven-game stretch where batters had an .844 OPS against him and he gave up runs in four outings.
The next best year was turned in by Armando Benitez In 2002. That season Benitez pitched in 62 games and had 67.1 IP and a 2.27 ERA to go along with a 4.523 WPA. He limited opposing batters to a .603 OPS. But he had a seven-game stretch with a 5.14 ERA and opposing batters had a .941 OPS against him.
If the two best relief seasons ever in team history included streaks of multiple games where they were knocked around like a rag doll, shouldn’t we expect that from all relievers?
Let’s look at this year’s relievers. Here’s Jeurys Familia broken down into three consecutive stints:
38 Games, 40.1 IP, 1.12 ERA, .492 OPS
8 Games, 8.1 IP, 7.56 ERA, .954 OPS
6 Games, 6 IP, 0.00 ERA, .418 OPS
Here’s Carlos Torres:
26 Games, 22 IP, 2.86 ERA, .657 OPS
6 Games, 6.2 IP, 9.45 ERA, .895 OPS
12 Games, 15 IP, 1.80 ERA, .633 OPS
Here’s Bobby Parnell:
8 Games, 7.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, .487 OPS
8 Games, 7.0 IP, 10.29 ERA, .953 OPS
4 Games, 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, .607 OPS
Here’s Alex Torres:
31 Games, 25 IP, 2.52 ERA, .668 OPS
4 Games, 3.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, .950 OPS
4 Games, 5.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, .796 OPS
The bad eight-game stretch didn’t define Familia. The bad six-game stretch didn’t define Carlos Torres. The bad eight-game stretch didn’t define Parnell. So, why does the bad four-game stretch define Alex Torres?
Mets fans have been frustrated with Alex Torres because he walks a lot of batters. Yep, there’s no getting around it, he absolutely does. So did Benitez, Jenrry Mejia and Francisco Rodriguez when they were successful. A high walk total is bad, but in and of itself it does not make it impossible to be a successful pitcher. Before coming to the Mets, Alex Torres had a lifetime 4.5 BB/9 and the organization did not feel that was enough to discourage them from acquiring him.
Yes, his walk rate was higher when he was DFAd – at 6.8 BB/9. Again, this is a horrible number; no one is arguing that. But what was contributing more to his troubles – his walk rate or the way he was being used? If you had a guy who had a reverse platoon split and who was susceptible to giving up walks, would you use him to come on in mid-inning with runners on base and a lefty due up to hit? Or use him in innings when a bunch of lefties were coming to the plate?
The Mets have such a blind spot when it comes to lefty relievers and how they should be utilized that they think a guy who is useless against righties and who came over with a 5.91 ERA, a 1.969 WHIP and a (-0.84) WPA is a good addition. And then they justified the move by saying that Tyler Clippard, a guy who had been in the Mets’ organization for a week or so, gave a good scouting report! If you turned in a screen play with this story development, it would be rejected on the grounds of ridiculousness.
Alex Torres should not have been viewed as some sacred cow, as someone who could not be replaced. All players should be viewed as being replaceable by a better option. But the rationalizations you have to swallow to convince yourself that the Mets were correct in this case are simply staggering.
And if you think the Mets were justified in judging Alex Torres by a couple of bad games in July, consider that their latest LOOGY has a 2.143 WHIP overall with the Mets and lefties have a .375 AVG and an .875 OPS against him since he’s come back to the senior circuit. But don’t judge him by four games with the Mets. Judge him by all 29 games he’s played this season and the fact that he hasn’t been both healthy and good since 2012.
No one claimed Alex Torres, so he’s back with the Mets’ organization, pitching in Triple-A. It’ll be a long road back to the majors for him, given that the org insists that because he throws with his left hand that the only way he can be an asset is if he dominates lefty batters. It may not be all bleak for him, though. According to the great Chris Walendin, if the Mets do not add him back to the 40-man roster this fall, he’ll be a minor league free agent and can bolt for greener pastures.
Meanwhile, why does no one care about criticizing Robles?
Since the All star break, he’s already played a big part in two close losses (7/17 and 7/30) and the almost melt down against Miami on 8/5
Robles has had some dark days, but also some very clean innings, particularly against the Nats in a pretty scary situation. Im no big fan, and in fact, I think the pen is only slightly better than offense in confidence. When the pen shows up, I start shaking. I dont have confidence in any person out there.
I think Alex Torres is a good pitcher who was misused which in turn led to some poor results. He never found a role, or success.
When you look at those stats, it’s clear to me that he wasn’t judged on a poor 4-game stretch. Even his good stretches weren’t very good. For whatever reasons, and wherever the fault might be, he was largely unproductive on the hill for the 2015 NY Mets.
It was time to move on, because that’s the best way to build bullpens in the modern era. Avoid big contracts and don’t get stuck on failing players; there’s always some hard thrower in AAA who merits a shot.
The sad part to me is that I think Torres arrived largely as advertised. A LHP with established reverse splits, a guy with control issues, a guy who is hard to hit. His BA-against numbers are very good. This is the pitcher they traded for, and yet when he arrived it was as if they thought they’d be getting some other player. Weird.
The Mets wanted a LOOGY. They deeply believe in that concept. I hate the expression, so forgive me, but it is what it is. Thus, O’Flaherty gets a shot and Torres gets demoted.
Management feels they absolutely need somebody to get out Bryce Harper. I think Clippard can do it, but they also wanted a more traditional LOOGY on hand. My feelings on that are mixed.
I was happy with Blevins, a real pro, but I thought he could do a bit more than just get out southpaw sluggers. Clearly, O’Flaherty should never, ever, ever pitch to a RH batter in any kind of critical situation.
The average NL reliever has a 3.53 ERA and a .687 OPS against. He was better than average over a 3-month period
My observation on O’Flaherty so far is that he’s very good at backing up third base.
He’s apparently so misunderstood that 30 MLB front offices decided to pass on him. Surely, it must be more than 4 bad outings? I couldnt be happier hes gone. Oh no Oh F is nothing we need in NY either.
O’Flaherty was very good in 2011-2014, four solid seasons in a row, until he fell apart across 20 innings in Oakland. The Mets got him for next to nothing. Worth a shot, I think, unless there’s something physically wrong with him. Career holds LH batters below 600 OPS, around a .210 BA.
Really, you’re going to count 2013 and 2014 as good years – when he hardly pitched at all and his FIP was over 4 both seasons?
You know who else holds LHB to a .536 OPS and a .196 AVG? Scott Rice and we all know he’s terrible.
Just looking over July, Torres provided the following as best as I can determine:
IP = 9.1
Appearances = 8
Results = Mets lose all 8
ER = 5
ERA = 4.95
BB = 8
K = 6
K/BB = 0.75
WHIP = 1.65
All things considered as we march towards a pennant race, we see a guy whose results are getting worse all season. None of those numbers looks good to me. Watching him pitch was equally painful.
While you advocate for a different pattern of using the player, the manager and FO play him in the manner they see fit, not how anyone else does. Is it possible that he could be better being used differently? I think that is quite likely. That is not what happens however. The Mets have the plan they have whether we like that or not. More than once weve been mystified by this FO. As I said in the chatter when we went round and round on this: the Mets have a vision for player use based on tasks, not building a team around the strengths each player is best at. Is that crazy? I think so. Back to Torres, placed in the positions he was put in, his results were getting worse. Im happy he’s gone, but Im not happy that O’F is in. Id dump him as well. (I would however throw out his first appearance, which was ridiculous to play him given he had left Seattle at 4 am and had to pitch for a new team that night. Collins was a dope for throwing him in there.)
Let’s be clear that the reason the Mets lost all of the games he appeared in July was not because of Torres. His very first game, he entered in the 9th inning when they were down 3. He was one of the bottom guys in the pen and was being used in low leverage games, as he should have been.
He had eight appearances in the month and allowed ER in three games and UER in one additional outing. Familia and Parnell also allowed runs in four July outings. It’s not like Torres’ performance was so much worse than everyone else. If anyone would have fit that bill for July – it would have been Parnell.
I don’t think we’re far apart on the situation here. To me, our main difference is that you think that we have to accept however the Mets choose to run the team. My take is we can understand that but we never have to accept it.
For sure I did not mean to imply he lost all 8 games single handedly.
As I mentioned and as your article notes: I believe there is equal reason for concern with Parnell, C Torres, Familia, and (for Name) Robles. I think the pen is a reason for deep concern.
As far as how you slice and dice the data, anyone could come up with some performance stretch to prove a point. We could go round and round on that forever Im sure. As far as relievers go, to me what I want is consistency (see Royals). I think that inconsistency in relievers is a hallmark of worry. So sure, all of the folks in the pen have had great runs, but Ive seen enough terrifying blowups that I dont know what is gonna happen when pitcher X gets the call.
I agree we are not far off intellectually. I think the difference is lost in semantics in the end. Accept? Understand? In either case the practicality of what I see is that none of us have any decision making power and so are unable to effect change.
Royals relievers and consistency this year:
Greg Holland had a 6.48 ERA in a 9-game stretch
Kelvin Herrera gave up runs in four games in June (OK, June 7-July 1)
Ryan Madson has a 12.27 ERA in his last six games
This is completely normal for relievers to have stretches where they’re not dominant and blowing people away. It’s tough to watch but for everyone that you can point out like Wade Davis who doesn’t do this, I can point out 50 who do.
I don’t think it’s rational to be leery of Familia at this point in time. He was great for 3 months, had a brief rough patch and is great once again. How many scoreless appearances in a row does he have to put up until you have faith in him again? I say again because I’m assuming in June you had complete confidence in him.
Hmm. i just noticed this.
Colon. Huge bust
Young. Also bust.
Recker. Servicable at best.
O’Flahrety…
What do they all have in common? They were all on the A’s the previous season before coming to the Mets.
Sorry Alderson, but stop trying to get Billy Beane’s sloppy seconds. His trash is not your treasure.
Cespedes?
But I agree, Im done with him dealing with his old friend.
Forgot about him, but in his short sample size he’s not done too much for the Mets either. Still has ~50 games left to buck the trend though.
Mets got him from the Tigers.
Cowgill too. Probably a couple more. We blogged on that a couple of years back over at “2 Guys.” Mostly they grabbed guys they knew from Toronto, San Diego, and Oakland. On one level, makes sense: Hire the guys you know best. On the other, it never struck me that they were looking under every rock for talent. Just mostly rolling (and losing) with what they inherited. It felt lazy, frankly.
Judging by the way Alderson talks to the media and the fans, he’s probably not a like-able guy among the GMs.
It makes sense that only clubs which the front office has significant ties would be willing to deal with him
And on a semi-related note to Cowgill, i just noticed Jefry Marte made it up to the show with the Tigers. Doing a nice Miggy impression so far too.
I rather see the Mighty Kazoo come in than Oh No O’Flaherty,that’s for sure.
I’m surprised you are defending Torres, Brian. Since 2013 his BB%, FIP and WHIP have all gone up dramatically, and his fWar has tanked. I agree he wasn’t God awful for a good part of the year, but he certainly wasn’t getting any better.
O’Flarethy at least has a much better track record of success. I’d rather have the guy who’s shown he has done it before, rather than a guy who is showing you just how bad he might be getting.
In 2013, his BB% was 1.77 and now it’s 2.06 — not enough of a difference to be concerned about.
In 2013, his FIP was 4.30 and now it’s 2.98 — this is a nice improvement
In 2013, his WHIP was 1.11 and now it’s 1.21 — I don’t believe this deserves any concern
In 2013, his fWAR was 0.2 and now it’s 0.6 — a slight improvement
He’s got a 1.80 ERA in his last 15 games and despite a .351 BABIP in this span, opponents have just a .633 OPS against him. He’s consistently throwing harder and the results have been good. I feel very confident now when he comes into the game.
Why did 30 FOs walk on Torres?
I did not make up the numbers in my post above. His recent work is not good, and pretty smart folks dont want him at all. Hard to believe a competent reliever would just get passed by.
Much better relievers than Torres have been passed upon.
Take for example, Vin Mazaro. Had an excellent 2013 with the Pirates, posting a 2.81 ERA in 73.2 IP.
But In 2014, the Pirates successfully passed him through waivers not once but twice.
There are probably a ton more examples you can find if you do a little digging.
Sorry Pat, I had a brain fart and was looking at Carlos Torres.
As for Alex Torres, his numbers were great two years ago. And that’s why you don’t let three or four bad outings cloud your judgment.
He wasn’t at a 2013 pace but he was a better than average reliever for half the year.
It’s an unbelievable waste to throw that away for a freaking LOOGY – all because Torres did what just about every reliever does – had a stretch of a handful of bad games.
One interesting stat is his IS% (inherited runners scored). Of the 25 runners he’s inherited, he’s allowed 5 to score (20%). That’s actually pretty good considering what some relievers have put up this season.
However, those 5 runs are almost half of the total 12 ER he’s given up this season. Or, if you prefer, 30% of his total 16 total runs. More interestingly, all 5 inherited runs came in 4 games, 2 wins and 2 losses (including a blown save).
I mean, he’s not been fantastic in these situations, but he’s hasn’t been awful. Maybe they just really didn’t like the walks?