In 14 games with the Astros, Carlos Gomez has a .196/.224/.286 line. Meanwhile, Yoenis Cespedes is chugging along with a .306 AVG and an .801 OPS. Perhaps it’s silly to declare victory after two weeks but you will be hard pressed to find a Mets fan pining for Gomez these days. In fact, most seem to be scheming to find ways to sign Cespedes to a long-term contract.
The odds are stacked against that, though. Sandy Alderson is on record as being against giving out $100 million deals and the Wilpons aren’t going to do anything to change his mind in that regard. But let’s pretend for a minute that scenario doesn’t exist, or at least that Alderson has an open mind on the subject. Could the Mets fit Cespedes in their budget for 2016 and beyond and does it make sense to do it?
After this season the following players and salaries will no longer be on the books:
$11 million – Bartolo Colon
$8 million – Daniel Murphy
$5.3 million – Dillon Gee
$3.7 million – Bobby Parnell
$2.595 million – Jenrry Mejia
$2.4 million – Jerry Blevins
1.45 million – John Mayberry
0.725 million – Buddy Carlyle
That’s $35.17 million from the Opening Day roster that’s potentially available. And that doesn’t take into account the extra money being paid now to Tyler Clippard, Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe and Cespedes himself that could be allocated towards re-signing their big mid-season acquisition. Of course, some of that money has to go to raises to others on the team. And they might want to bring in a reliever to replace Clippard, too. But it seems obvious that the money is available, at least for 2016.
Only Michael Cuddyer’s $12.5 million comes off the books the following season and the raises aren’t going to get any cheaper. The year after that is Curtis Granderson and his $15 million. So it certainly would be more difficult to afford his salary after the first year of his deal. The hope is that the Mets make the playoffs and develop the ability to allocate more towards payroll. It’s good to have hope; sometimes that’s all you’ve got.
The best bet might be for Cespedes to take a front-loaded three-year deal. That way the Mets aren’t on the hook for $20 million a year forever like they are with David Wright. And Cespedes is still young enough to get another good size free agent contract. Granderson, coming off an injury, got 4/$60 for his age 33-36 seasons. It’s reasonable to expect Cespedes to command more than that for the same age seasons.
But how do the Mets play things if they do retain Cespedes? We know Granderson will start in one corner. We think Michael Conforto is ready to start in the other. Will the Mets be willing to put both Cuddyer and Juan Lagares, who they signed last year to a multi-year deal, on the bench? If not, would you be willing to have $20 million-plus keeping Conforto in the minors?
In tiny samples with the Mets, Cespedes has an .801 OPS this year and Conforto sits with a .771 mark. The rookie has not looked out of place at all in the majors and has been considered a long-term starter in Queens since the day he was drafted. No one thought that day would be 2016, however. But things change and Conforto has a month and a half – and maybe more – to convince the front office that his time is now.
The one thing yet to be discussed is if Cespedes is worth a monster contract. Currently, he has 2,249 PA in the majors under his belt and he holds a .790 lifetime OPS. Those are very nice numbers and no doubt some team will believe he’s worth a nine-figure deal. Those are excellent numbers for a center fielder. But they’re considerably less so for a corner outfielder. The average RF in the National League has a .778 OPS. And the average right fielder is not pulling down $20 million or more.
Cespedes needs to play center for those numbers to make sense on a team watching its pennies. And with the Mets already committing to Lagares in that position, it seems to make the long shot of re-signing Cespedes into even more of an unlikely proposition. Unless the Mets are willing to trade Lagares. Alderson has really surprised us with his activity at the trade deadline. But can you imagine him making a free agent signing that would then force him to turn around and make another deal for the signing to make sense? That doesn’t sound like the modus operandi of a “semi-active GM” to me.
It seems we should treat Cespedes as the rental he was said to be when he was acquired. He’s a fun guy to watch and memories of that off-balance, one-hop throw to third base will last awhile. Hopefully he provides us with many more of those the remainder of the 2015 season.
Alderson stepped to the plate and paid a heavy price for the Cespedes rental. Luis Cessa has had a tough go of it in two starts for the Tigers in Double-A. But Michael Fulmer has been outstanding in his two appearances for Double-A Erie, having not allowed a run over 12.2 IP, while racking up 11 strikeouts.
In 17 starts in Double-A this year, Fulmer is 8-2 with a 1.64 ERA and a 1.074 WHIP. For a comparison, Steven Matz, at a year older, posted a 2.28 ERA and a 1.127 WHIP at the same level. Fulmer seems well on his way towards being a potentially fine MLB pitcher and no doubt the Tigers will look back fondly on this deal in the years to come.
The Mets find themselves in the same position as the Giants did back in 2011 when they traded Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran. The Giants rolled the dice and it came up craps, as they did not make the playoffs and Beltran left as a free agent with no compensation. It will be easier to handle the loss of Fulmer if Cespedes helps lead the Mets to the playoffs.
Personally, my belief is that the Mets overpaid for Cespedes and that two months of him was not worth Fulmer. But at the same time, it was nice to see Alderson not being worried about winning the deal. His focus was on the playoffs and it’s fun to be discussing the playoffs rather than some mythical point in the future.
To me, it was a much, much bigger mistake signing Cuddyer and forfeiting a first-round pick than it was trading Fulmer for a rental. The latter is a cost of doing business; the former was the equivalent of shooting yourself in the foot. At least for the remainder of the season, Cespedes means we’ll see less Cuddyer and that’s worth something, too.
Cespedes fits in NY. He fits with the Mets. With Harvey, he provides the kind of high profile high wattage personality that’s been lacking from a position player. Hes got the swag this team needs. He’s a perfect bridge to the Latino community like we haven’t had since Reyes left. He will bring gate consistently that will help offset the contract. And most importantly, he’s a damn fine baseball player. I’d offer him 5/110 and see if he bites.
We do have a lot rolling off the books this coming year, then with Cuddyer and in 2 years with Granny (who is earning his contract IMO). With Wright an unknown quantity, Cespedes could be the offensive anchor of this team for through the “pitching era” years we have coming (next 4 or 5).
Don’t forget the arb salaries coming due, some won’t be cheap, like Duda and Harvey!
When Cespedes is gunning out a runner at third or hitting a home run in the right center, he sure looks like he fits. When he nonchalant’s a putout in left field, dropping the ball, only to be saved by the recent ruling on such plays, less so.
I see Cespedes and I think Puig, for better and worse. I like the power; I do not at all like that his On Base Percentage has tanked with exposure to the League(s). With the Mets carrying guys such as Flores and Lagares, having another guy burning through the available outs is less than ideal. To be fair, Cespedes doesn’t carry the disengaged act to the lengths seen from Yasiel Puig, not in my viewing at least; but he did have something of that rep in his time with Boston.
Fact is I don’t know yet whether or not I want him back. I probably will know, come October 1.
I agree. Not yet convinced. Decent, for sure, but worth 9 figures? Not me. If he was so great, why’s he been on 4 teams in 2 years? To me, 4 years at $15 million would be it. He’s certainly better than Granderson, but he’ll be 30, and even if we sign him it creates issues. Trade Lagares? Last year he was second on the team in BA. This year, for guys with over 300 AB’s with the Mets, he’s second once again. And if Cespedes numbers crush Carlos Gomez since the trade deadline, how about this comparison:
Since 8/1
Cespedes 65 AB’s, .292/.313/.462/.775
Lagares 27 AB’s .370/.393/.667/.1.060
And not just vs LH’ers. He PH homered vs a RH’er and had another double. The guy they should trade off season is Granderson. Eat half his contract. He’s 2 for his last 23 and he can’t hit a 95mph fastball, a great curve nor lefties. He only hits sliders, hangers and changeups. In the post season, he won’t hit, as the pitchers are too good. I suppose in September, when the rosters expand, like last year, he’ll crank up the numbers. He’s hitting .220 in August, and .087 in his last 7 games, the 2 for 23. And for the season, he’s 15 for 100 vs lefties, with 5 BB’s and 39 K’s. .150/.196. Pitiful. He’s the guy to move. Then sign Cespedes. Otherwise, I’m for sticking with Lagares, Conforto, and Grandy/Cuddy platoon, with Nimmo as backup.
I too like the Cespedes fit and he may be the player to get us through our initial “pitching years”. I think a 5/100-110 is fair and would be offset by increased revenue.
Brian you also make a compelling arguement and a correct one. I just think Cespedes fits nice and belongs here. The Mets already paid the price with Cessa and Fullmer. I would also look to move Granderson (sell high) this winter and play an outfield of Conforto/Lagares/Cespedes. Cuddyer would be our 4th OF.
If Wright comes back and has a Wright type September then Cespedes may not be needed after all. If he doesn’t, then a right handed bat will be needed and Cespedes may be the cheapest option.
I can see a scenario where the Mets bring back Cespedes. I cannot imagine one where he’s the cheapest option.
I would hate losing Granderson, but I understand how that makes sense. I would much rather give Cuddyer away for a bag of balls, so long as we aren’t on the hook for more than half his contract. Lagares’ contract is not significant enough to force his playing time, so he can be the primary backup if necessary. I like a Conforto/Cespedes/Granderson outfield with Lagares for defense a lot. How about 3/$70 million?
Granderson’s stats require scrutiny. He can’t hit a 95 mph fastball, a good curve, nor lefties. 15 for 100 vs LH’ers this years tells that one. But look at his 8th inning numbers. He’s hitting under .200. So, late, when it’s crucial, relievers eat him up. This happens to many in the 9th inning, but not the 8th, when teams second best pitcher is in. He’s just not reliable. The O’s don’t have a great staff, so he may do okay, but vs the Bucs, Rays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Cards, teams we’ll end up playing, he’s a zero. Vs Wacha, Martinez, Arrieta, Lester, Greinke, Kershaw, Liriano, Burnett, Cole and Morton he’s hitting 50-221, or .226. I forgot the Giants, but look at Murph and Lagares against these same pitchers:
Murph 28-112 or .250
Lagares 14-56 or .250.
And most of Granderson’s outs are K’s, with no chance for an rbi, or moving the runners. And look at all his ground balls into the shift, easy outs. IMO, he’s the one to move. He’ll hit 7 hr’s in September like last year vs expanded rosters, but I don’t expect anything from him this post season.
Cespedes has obviously made the Mets more competitive, and should they win the division, I doubt anyone mourns the loss of Fulmer.
But what if the Mets go to the wire and don’t win? Consider the Mets paid attendance during a mid-week game last week — 37,000 — and ask how often that’s happened in August over the last five years. The team is bringing in significant revenue via winning, and that should translate to a bigger pocketbook over the off-season.
So even if they don’t carry the division, Alderson’s acquisitions may prove valuable in the long run.
“May” being the operative word in that last statement.
I think they’ll carry the division, but TC’s aversion to small ball will doom them. Cevilli is 0-35 in catching base stealers, yet we attempted 1 SB vs the Bucs. Lagares led off the 1st with a single. He’s 7-10 this year and was 13-17 last year. So, 20-27 not bad. If he steals second, Grandy lined to RF. Could he have tagged up? Maybe, maybe not. But if so, he scores on Cespedes grounder to Ramirez. On Saturday, we had 4 chances through 11 innings with men on 1st and 1 out or less. We could have won in regulation with a successful hit n run or a stolen base. We just don’t do it. If we’re facing the Rockies, Marlins, Phils. we score runs. Vs the Rays and Bucs, we don’t. We need to learn how to score on less than 3 hit innings. Though that’s what TC used to complain about. He actually stated, “we just can’t seem to get 3 hits in an inning”. Absurd that he thinks that’s necessary. Joe Maddon certainly doesn’t wait for that. The Cubs don’t hit so great, yet they win.
I believe Cespedes is worth around 5/100 mil. Is there any way the Wilpons can ensure he can make at least 5 mil a year in NY through commercial endorsements? He’d be a natural for the Cuban and other Hispanic products in the Tri-State area. Then the Mets might be able to get him at a cost of around 15 mil. Winning baseball is what’s needed to keep Citi Field at or near capacity. The pitching will keep us in just about every game, but some offense is needed to win.
I’d rather lock up Harvey. Harvey worth more than Cespedes, as is deGrom. It’s easy to pick up hitters at the break. Look at a player like John Jaso. He’s hitting .345 in 89 AB’s since off DL. Is Cespedes even an all star? Let’s see how he ends up. He’s a .270 lifetime hitter. And why 4 teams in 2 years? Looks like others didn’t like him that much. He hit 6 hr’s in 201 AB’s for the Red Sox. Is that worth $100 million? NFW, not to me.
What is ops ?????????????????????
On Base + Slugging Percentage. While it’s less than ideal to add numbers that are produced with different denominators, it’s a quick and dirty way to judge offensive performance.
Since on-base percentage is more important, a better number is probably OBP*1.8 + SLG but then the number loses some of its simplicity.
I think OPS stinks. Gives too much weight to walks. SLG is good. I think OPS also ignores K’s. So, if a guy walks a lot, let’s say 60 times, but K’s 150 times, the BB’s make his OPS higher, yet mask serious weakness. In 2012, Granderson had an 800+ OPS with 43 hr’s, but he had 195 K’s. To me, K’s are the worst outs and players need to be penalized for them. I’d rather see OPS -K’s/AB’s. I like to see the ball in play. So, in 2012, let’s say Granderson had 600 AB’s, 195k/600, would result in something like a rate of .575-.595, or OPS-K’s/AB’s. The KC Royals both K the least and walk the least. I like that. Gives huge opportunities for hit n run when you don’t K.
OPS is just a quick, down-and-dirty shorthand. No more, no less.
What is ops ?????????????????????