Travis d’Arnaud staked the Mets to an early lead with a three-run homer Saturday night. Since being activated from his second DL stint this year, it only seems like he’s been doing this every game. But while he has made outs in this stretch of 26 games, he’s performed even better than he did in April and he’s left Mets fans wondering how big their lead would be if he hadn’t missed nearly three months with various injuries this season.
Since returning to the lineup on July 31, d’Arnaud has a .981 OPS, with 15 of his 28 hits going for extra-bases. And he’s done this with a .314 BABIP. The Mets are 18-8 with d’Arnaud behind the plate in this stretch. Everyone is quick to credit the arrival of Yoenis Cespedes and the return of David Wright for the team’s strong play. Let’s not forget the return of the team’s starting catcher, too.
For what it’s worth, the Mets are 29-16 when d’Arnaud starts this year.
Last year d’Arnaud took over as the Met’s primary catcher. After a dreadful start, which saw a brief trip to the minors, he rebounded to post a .272/.319/.486 line over his final 276 PA. That brought up his season OPS to a .718 mark, good for a 104 OPS+. That was the first time since Paul Lo Duca in 2006 (102) that the Mets’ primary catcher reached a triple-digit mark in OPS+ and it was the best mark since Mike Piazza recorded a 138 OPS+ in 2002.
Piazza is the gold standard for catchers for the Mets, if not MLB. He had a 167 OPS+ in 1998 and a 155 mark in 2000. Currently, d’Arnaud sits with a .936 OPS, which translates to a 156 OPS+, albeit in just 45 games. It’s nowhere close to a full season and he may not even end the year as the Mets’ primary catcher. Kevin Plawecki has caught 61 games and may add a few more before the end of the year.
Plawecki is one of the top catching prospects in baseball. While he does not have d’Arnaud’s power, he looks like a hitter when he steps in the box and we’ve seen some line drives jump off his bat. But the difference in production between the top catchers has been stark. Plawecki, in his first exposure to the majors, has a .580 OPS in 229 PA.
Hopefully, d’Arnaud has answered the question of whether he can hit in the majors. But how about his defense? When he came up in 2013, d’Arnaud received praise for his pitch-framing abilities, in least in part due to his predecessor’s atrocious performance in this category, the alleged defensive guy John Buck.
But in 2014, d’Arnaud was poor in both throwing runners out and allowing wild pitches and passed balls. Always touted as a two-way catcher, it was hard to imagine how he earned such praise defensively as a minor leaguer. This year, in about one-third of a full season, d’Arnaud has upped his CS% from 19 to 27 percent. And in 44 percent of his innings from a year ago, he’s seen his wild pitches drop from 39 to 12 and his passed balls from 12 to one.
Pitch framing remains the strength of his game defensively, StatCorner has him ranked 12th among all backstops this year on a per-game basis, but he’s clearly made gains in the more traditional ways of viewing catchers defensively. And he was behind the plate for the first complete-game shutout of the year last night for the Mets.
We’re seeing the maturation of a star catcher right before our eyes. The Mets have had more than their share of strong backstops in their history but the two most famous ones – Gary Carter and Piazza – came to the team already formed. You have to go back to at least Todd Hundley for the last time we saw a catcher develop like this and that one seems tainted now. Before Hundley, it was John Stearns, roughly 40 years ago.
It’s easy to get caught up in all of the injuries that have befallen the club this year, or the latest soap opera created by Scott Boras. But let’s not forget the things that have gone right. And one of the things near the top of the list has been the play of d’Arnaud when he’s been on the field. It’s been a remarkable turnaround from what we saw in early 2014.
Well, d’Arnaud is a stud. I did a quick baseball-reference trick by switching his current numbers to a 650 PA projection, and he would produce 36 home runs and 126 RBI. Obviously he can’t do that as a catcher, but I don’t think that 30+ home runs with 95+ RBI is unreasonable next season for a healthy d’Arnaud. He could be a fixture in the lineup for the next half-decade.
I was very wrong to be so harsh on TdA early on. He has been a wonderful player to watch progress. I look forward to his contributions each game. I just hope he stays healthy. He’s a threat at the plate and looks to have improved his defense. The last step is throwing.
The NL CS% this year is 28% so he’s just about average. If that’s the weak part of his game, I’ll take it.
It’s a small sample size. Nevertheless, I’m excited about TdA and very pleased he’s in the line up.
Nice article, big fan of d’Arnaud.
And to further cement my position as an old fuddy duddy who is reluctant to embrace every new stat that comes down the pike, I can’t get into the “pitch framing” stuff at all.
Do you light your house with candles, too?
No, I’m sold on electricity. Just think that I don’t personally have any need for the quasi-quantification of “pitch framing” that is all the rage in the dark corners of sabermetrics.
Quick: Who is 8th best in the AL in pitch framing?
I can’t type “I don’t care” fast enough.
You will agree, however, that the old measures of what makes a good defensive catcher were inadequate, even misleading?
All the argument I require is all the good to very good games that Mike Piazza, famous as a bad catcher, was able to coax out of some very marginal pitchers.
A couple of articles that you might enjoy:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16199
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20596
Off topic, but my pet peeve is with bbip (batted balls in play) Supposedly, if a player has a .240 batting average but a .330 bbip, he will most likely start hitting for a higher average. My problem is nobody can tell me when. Next week, next month, in another 150 at bats? Seems pretty useless to me.
I assume you’re talking about BABIP — Batting Average on Balls in Play.
If that’s what you’re referencing, you have it wrong. If all we know is that a player has a .330 BABIP and a .240 AVG, we would expect his future AVG to decline, not to go up. As a whole, the league averages around .300 on BABIP (The NL has a .302 mark this year). So, if a player currently has a .330 mark in the category, we would expect his mark (and his AVG) to decline in the future towards the .300 average.
Of course, what’s normal for the group is different from what’s normal for the individual. David Wright has a lifetime .339 BABIP while Wilmer Flores has a lifetime .269 mark.
And why are you making demands of this stat (problem is no one can tell me when…) that you wouldn’t make of another stat. Curtis Granderson has 23 HR — when is he going to hit another?
My main concern is that mean (average) as a number simply does not express reality. It should be expressed with one or two standard deviations so we know how “meaningful” the mean is. If it’s +/- 0.015 that’s a lot different than 0.002 and very much Ganges what the resultant BA may do. I’d be happy to find that out if you could direct me to the babip and BA data for all players in a single column.
There are countless articles online where this has already been done. I believe that it’s incorporated into the advanced xBABIP formulas out there.
Travis has been terrific. Long term, I’d like to see him get some work in at the corner if positions. He is such a good hitter. The Mets should minimize his exposure to the freak injury.
Dominic Smith appears to be our first baseman of the future, but hits from the left side. DW’s long term status is uncertain, although the early returns are favorable.
I’m a strong believer in fielding rotations. I’d like to see a mild rotation between TDA and KP behind the plate, TDA and DS at 1st base, and DW & TDA at 3rd base. Everyone gets rest, and everyone stay fresh.
By analogy, our outfield has a mild rotation that appears to be working for all players concerned. A little off-topic, but we absolutely need to retain Cespedes.
Interesting thought on fielding rotations, as long as d’Arnaud continues to be primarily a catcher. That’s his greatest asset to the club, that he provides that offense from that typically defensive position. It’s what makes him a star.
Agree on Cespedes.
For me, the jury is still very much out on Kevin Plawecki. He might be Vance Wilson. I have not seen enough from him to turn me into a believer.
The question becomes, what to do wit Plawecki? I do believe he will find himself as a major league hitter, given sufficient at bats. Will he get those AB’s if d’Arnaud somehow stays healthy in 2016?
He does have trade value, of course. In a couple of years the question may no longer matter, if Ali Sanchez keeps up his march into relevancy. For the immediate future I think the Mets have to hang onto Plaw.
To me, it would depend on the market. If a team was really excited about Plawecki and made a strong offer, I’d move him. Otherwise, I’d hold.
I thought KP should have been one of the main pieces for a Tulo trade but it was hard to trade him when he was our starter for half the year.
There’s worse things than having a backup catcher who would be a starter for half the teams in the league. But in my opinion it’s a mistake if we try to find ways to fit him in the lineup. TDA should be playing 135 or so games a year and they should be as a C and maybe a few times as a DH.
As of right now, KP hasn’t hit in the majors and he hasn’t hit in Triple-A, either. Both of those together are only about one year’s worth of PA for a C but at this point, the jury is still out if he’ll hit at this level. The idea of benching a corner player to get KP’s bat in the lineup doesn’t make sense right now.
At the beginning of the season my thought was: bring up Plawecki, put him behind the plate three times every two weeks, say; plus have him on hand to play first base against the tougher lefty’s, plus a bit of DH in the American League parks, plus pinch hitting. I figured he would see 300 Plate Appearances that way, plenty for a rookie season.
Well, Plaw didn’t settle in as a hitter, plus d’Arnaud got hurt, twice, plus Duda discovered how to hit lefthanders. Plawecki’s path through 2015 was totally different than what I had in mind.
I do believe Plawecki will hit, though not for the power of Travis d’Arnaud. I don’t know if he will develop with limited play.
TDA looks like an all star catcher and a middle of the order bat. He needs to stay healthy. I have seen Plawecki play in thr minors and he can hit but not like TDA. Plawecki’s 2015 is similar to TDA’s early 2014. Plawecki, when he begins to hit, will be considered a good catcher but not as good as TDA. Plawecki should start 2016 in Las Vegas and by the second half of the season do well enough to be promoted. TDA by that time will be on the all star team.
As long as they hang on to Plawecki for insurance I like this kid a lot. Though I liked him a lot more before the bases loaded double play.