Mets360 2015 projection review: Travis d’Arnaud

Travis d'ArnaudWelcome to the start of our projection review series. We start off with catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Take a few moments to see the original piece we did. Our group projection was for the following line:

PA – 487
AVG – .265
OBP – .323
SLG – .440
HR – 18
RBI – 66
PB – 12

Here’s how d’Arnaud actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.

PA – 268
Best – Koehler (400)
Worst – Parker (550)

AVG – .268
Best – Joura (.268)
Worst – Kolton (.243)

OBP – .340
Best – Vasile (.335)
Worst – Kolton (.281)

SLG – .485
Best – Rogan (.475)
Worst – Kolton (.344)

HR – 12
Best – Slape (15)
Worst – Joura, Singer (22)

RBIs – 41
Best – Kolton (43)
Worst – Vasile (79)

PB – 1
Best – Hangley (7)
Worst – Kolton (19)

Obviously, none of us predicted a shortened season for d’Arnaud.  It’s not a surprise that no one, with the possible exception of Kolton, saw him performing so poorly overall as to lose playing time to someone else.  But given his injury history in the minors, it’s somewhat of an upset that no one pegged him for fewer than 400 PA.

With that out of the way, it’s probably best to focus on the rate stats rather than the counting ones.  And here we did pretty well on an individual basis.  We nailed his AVG, came within a few points on OBP and the worst was being 10 points off on his SLG.  With our group forecast, we came within three points on AVG but were off 17 and 45 points on OBP and SLG, respectively.

Comparing our projections to the big boys, ours came out the best.  We were slightly more optimistic across the board, so while we were 45 points off on SLG, ZiPS was 49 points off and Steamer missed by 57.  And as far as playing time estimates, we were in the middle with 487 PA, while ZiPS forecasted 399 and Steamer 503.

Also, we should note the passed balls. This time last year, some were concerned that d’Arnaud would not be able to play the position defensively. While he won praise for pitch framing, he was raked over the coals for allowing so many PB and SB. While his throwing still leaves a lot to be desired, he did a fantastic job of eliminating PB in 2015.

Looking forward to the 2016 projections, it will be curious to see our individual forecasts.  We all saw great production when d’Arnaud was in the lineup in 2015, at least during the regular season, but we also saw him miss more than half the year.  My guess is someone will forecast fewer than 400 PA and possibly more than one will be bearish when it comes to playing time.

7 comments for “Mets360 2015 projection review: Travis d’Arnaud

  1. Matthew Vandenbrand
    November 8, 2015 at 12:08 pm

    As a Braves fan it pains me to see such a talented player on the Mets roster (rotation of aces no withstanding)
    I’m almost too optimistic when it comes to D’Arnaud (blame that on a bit of Jays homerism), but for myself he’s a burgeoning star and barring injuries I see a .275/.350/.480 kind of guy….or a flat out stud behind the plate if you will. Time will tell but that’s my take.

  2. lanzarishi
    November 8, 2015 at 1:49 pm

    At the start of the year and even in the off season I really thought this was going to be a breakout year for d’Arnaud. I was so amazed at how well he hit in 2014. Then when the injuries started early in the season I just knew we were taken for another ride. Injury after injury he finally came back but boy did he stink. I lost all confidence in him and he just never rebounded. He’s got a lot to prove to get me back on his side. Now my thinking is he will probably be out two months a year due to being so injury prone that is it really worth having this guy now. I mean, did you see his ABs in the WS? He was just horrible! Why Terry Collins didn’t use Kevin Pleweki is beyond me boy. I guarantee we would have won more games if d’Arneud had been taken out of the line up.

    • November 8, 2015 at 2:53 pm

      “he finally came back but boy did he stink.”

      When he returned from the 2nd injury, he put up a .256/.340/.464 line over 191 PA.

  3. Metsense
    November 8, 2015 at 2:08 pm

    If Travis d’Arnaud could have remained healthy enough to get the 487 PA’s and maintained his 2015 production of 340/485/825 then he would have been the second best offensive catcher in MLB behind Buster Posey. That would be quite an accomplishment. The Mets have an all star catcher in their midst but only if he remains healthy.
    So far the RA Dickey trade has yielded a 1/2 year catcher (Buck), who later was part of the Herrera trade (potential 2B) . It has also brought in a stud starting pitcher (Syndergaard), a potential all star catcher (d’Arnaud) and a possible starting right fielder (Becerra). Those trades were great work on Alderson’s part.

  4. Matty Mets
    November 9, 2015 at 6:40 am

    Beyond durability the second concern with d’Arnaud is his inability to throw out base stealers. I like his bat when healthy. He makes enough contact and gets on base enough to be a #2hitter

    • Patrick Albanesius
      November 9, 2015 at 11:56 pm

      He was pretty bad during the WS trying to throw people out.

  5. Nym6986
    November 9, 2015 at 7:01 am

    Kind of shocked that Bob Geren could not make more of an impact on d’Arnaud’s throwing skills. This is again part of our weakness up the middle. I see Legares coming back from injury and Herrera at 2b solving part of that equation. Flores had a great fielding post season but if we go forward with him as the starter they have to ramp up his bat to what has been projected in the past to make up with his lack of range in the hole. No way we trade Wheeler for a SS prospect. It was a great season and something to build on for 2016.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

%d bloggers like this: