Next up in our projection review series is first baseman Lucas Duda. In 2014, Duda had a breakout year. Take a minute to review our original piece to see how we felt about him comin into the season. Our group projection was for the following line:
PA – 535
AVG – .255
OBP – .350
SLG – .470
HR – 26
RBI – 83
OPS vs LHP – .600
Here’s how Duda actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
PA – 554
Best – Rogan (540)
Worst – Kolton (369)
AVG – .244
Best – Albanesius (.249)
Worst – Kolton (.220)
OBP – .352
Best – Vasile (.352)
Worst – Kolton (.266)
SLG – .486
Best – Rogan, Slape (.490)
Worst – Kolton (.397)
HR – 27
Best – Hangley, Slape, Walendin (27)
Worst – Kolton, Parker (17)
RBIs – 73
Best – Ferguson (75)
Worst – Kolton (32)
OPS vs. LHP – .878
Best – Joura (.650)
Worst – Kolton (.297)
The majority of us felt that Duda was going to do as well or better as he did in 2014 and essentially we were right. The difference was the DL stint that not only cost him time but also came during a stretch where he was performing well. Still, many of our individual projections came in right on the money, with three of us nailing the home run total.
The only surprise was how well Duda did against lefties. None of us had him close at all to his actual production. Given that he had a .516 OPS versus southpaws in 2014, it’s not a surprise that no one predicted a mark in the .800s although perhaps one of us should have seen one in the .700s, given the likely small sample he was going to see, as expectations coming into the year was that Cuddyer would play 1B against LHP.
Comparing out group forecast against the big boys, it looks like we had a small but decisive victory. Surprisingly, we had projected fewer PA than either Steamer or ZiPS, leading to our win there, and our rate stats were the best, too. We tied ZiPS in HR and we overshot in RBIs, finishing second to Steamer in that category. If only all of our group forecasts were this good.
Looking forward to next year, it seems likely that we will continue to be bullish on Duda’s production. It will be curious to see if he develops into a power-hitting version of Daniel Murphy, one who performed in a relatively narrow range of outcomes for the Mets over a period of years.
While he managed to put up similar numbers in 2014 and 2015, the way he achieved them was totally different.
In 2014, he was a solid player every month, not having an OPS below 700 in any month. He had 2 ridiculous months in June and July which brought his overall numbers up.
In 2015, he had 4 great months with 900+ Ops ball, but he also had a dreadful June where he looked liked Omar Q and had a 576 ops, which brought his overall numbers down.
I guess the key for him in 2016 to take the next step is to figure out how to avoid having an extended ice cold stretch.
Duda like Murphy is not a smart player. When he was slumong and he slumped quite often in 2015, he never once hit a slow roller to the third base side while all the opposing infielders were on the 2nd base side of the infield. Both Duda and Granderson never bothered to hit the ball for an easy single. This was really dumb as Duda and Grandson got caught in a power hitter vortex that didn’t really work out for them. If they would have hit the ball every now and then slowly over to third base it would have moved infielders back to the third base side, and thereby opening up the right side for them as well. This was Terry Collins and Kevin Long;s fault cuz when you are in a slump the more singles you get the better you average is but these numbskulls never took a given hit and more often then not they made out instead of getting on base. This is pathetic and not good, sound team baseball.
It’s interesting. You guys did nail the numbers, which aren’t bad. But why do I feel discouraged about Lucas? Is it the aftertaste of his postseason vanishing act?
At this point, he feels like a functioning cog in the wheel, but not a prime mover. And I guess that’s not terrible. Not everyone can be an All-Star.
I was quietly hoping for more.
Could be “The Throw…”
I think it’s discouraging considering how hot his certain streaks are. Besides those streaks, I expected more from him throughout the entire season. Somehow he still ended up with over 25 homers, but I agree with you James. I expected a big breakout year from Duda that would establish him as an offensive force.
It was not a bad season, but I would like to see more consistency moving forward.
I was not pleased with Duda’s taking so many first pitch strikes that appeared to be very hittable. He seems too passive. It’s incumbent upon the Mets coaching staff to get Lucas to be more aggressive early in the count.
unfortunately, thats not the thinking the mets have.
Apparently Kolton still pines for Ike Davis… 🙂
Not so much Davis…just anybody but Duda. Hopefully only another year or two until Brown shows up and dominates baseball!
Dan if you are waiting for the UPS guy then he should be knocking on your door before two years……but I would instead be looking forward to Dominic Smith. 🙂
In 2014 Duda mashed RHP to the tune of 273/372/543 with 28 homeruns and 82 RBI. In 2015 he regressed against RHP with a 230/358/466 but he hit LHP. 2015 proved that Duda was a full time player and not a platoon player. Hopefully, in 2016, when he is 30 yoa he will continue to hit LHP and go back to being a masher against RHP and have a career year.
Duda became very passive as the season wore on. It seemed like every at bat he’d watch a fastball strike and then swing at the next pitch, often a low inside breaking ball, that he’d miss by 2 feet. Then he was in a 2 strike count. I’m not saying he has to be Alcides Escobar, but if he’d swing at the first pitch or at least the first decent pitch once in a while it would make it a little harder for opposing pitchers to figure him out. He needs to make some adjustments and be a little more aggressive, but I still believe in him.
Let’s see now, reality for Duda is that despite that infamous throw, his defense is not bad at all. The Fox sports commentators also said the same. Not easy to replace 30 bombs, which if it were not for the DL stint, Duda would have easily gotten there. Anything like .260 30 85 and a decent slash vs lefties, with good, not gold glove defense (work on throws Lucas !) and I would hope the Mets keep him for another 2-3 years until D. Smith is ready.
The hope is that D. Smith can be another Keith ! Contact high avg guy with great defense. INF of the future 2017-2018 – 1b Smith, 2b Herrera, ss Rosario , 3b – Flores , (Capt has maybe 2 good years left) c – d’Arnaud, Of – Conforto, Nimmo, and some big Bopper in Rf gotten via trade or FA.
Staff should still be in tact, with exception of Harvey who will be traded before he hits Free Agency. That “haul of return” for Harvey will be key for org. into the future. No reason to trade him in now or 2016 offseason, 2017 ? yeah, or Mets lose him to Yanks for NADA.