As the hot stove simmers, GMs are kicking the tires on a free agent class stacked with top and mid-tier starting pitchers. At first blush, this might seem a bad year for the Mets’ front office to dabble in long term contracts. After all, Mr. Met might be the only mascot in baseball who can look in the mirror and honestly say, “we don’t need starting pitching.”
The bright side is that we don’t need to pony up a monster contract for an ace like many of the other contending teams are planning to do. So, while the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Orioles, Dodgers, Angels and Tigers are fighting over David Price, Zack Grienke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann the Mets can swoop in and gobble up whatever bats they want, right? If only. For those teams who miss out on one of those four aces, there are a number of other options, including former aces Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum and Mark Buerhle and some solid #2 and #3 starters, like Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, John Lackey, Yovani Gallardo, Brett Anderson, Jeff Samardzija, and others.
Teams looking for a bat will find no top tier hitter among the lot. These days, franchise cornerstone hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew McCutcheon are locked up and never sniff free agency. Instead, GM shoppers will be looking at some very good players, who won’t come cheap, like Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon and Chris Davis. Each of these players will command long-term deals of more than $20 million per season. At the next tier are some players who, because of age or limited power numbers, will command less years or annual dollars. This group includes Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Matt Wieters, Justin Morneau, Howie Kendrick and Mike Napoli. As everyone who watched the 2015 Royals and the 2013 Red Sox learned, you can win with these guys. This is the aisle where the Mets need to be shopping.
The Mets have no apparent holes in their defense as they have established, under contract players at every position except second base, where a top prospect is ready for the show. The glaring holes become apparent, however, when you look at the lineup. While free agents Murphy and Cespedes are replaceable in the field, their middle of the order bats leave a chasm that needs to be addressed.
If we make no big offseason moves, the following lineup, which features almost no speed only two big power hitters, and no .300 hitter, will not consistently score runs:
Curtis Granderson
Travis d’Arnaud
David Wright
Lucas Duda
Wilmer Flores
Michael Conforto
Juan Lagares
Dilson Herrera
The first order of business is to replace Murphy. Like Murphy, Zobrist is a strong contact hitter who can play multiple positions. Unlike Murphy, Zobrist is a very good defensive player and not a liability in the field. He’s also a switch hitter who can play the outfield. He can bat second in our lineup and rotate between positions as splits and slumps dictate. He’s a perfect fit that would strengthen this team offensively and defensively. Zobrist is on everyone’s list but if he’s the get, the Mets need to GET him. Present a high take-it-or-leave-it offer like 4-years/$74 million. Sometimes you have to overpay. If it doesn’t pan out, we can revisit bringing back Murphy. Without a versatile bat like one of these guys, it will be hard to improve our lineup without forcing a trade to open a position in the field.
Replacing Cespedes won’t be easy. He and the rest of the top tier free agents will command huge long-term contracts that could handcuff our ability to lock up our young pitchers. Cleanup hitters are scarce and prohibitively expensive. Fortunately we have one under contract who’s been masquerading as a leadoff hitter. That’s right, Curtis Granderson can take his 25-30 homeruns to the middle of the lineup where they belong so he can stop hitting solo shots. Fowler, Span and Parra can each play center field and each has batted leadoff. Austin Jackson is a cheaper option. If we signed Fowler or Span, we could push Juan Legares to get the elbow surgery he’s been putting off, trade him or let him be a part-time player for a while. Parra has the splits to platoon with Legares successfully and he’s versatile enough to play all three outfield positions and bat leadoff or further down the lineup.
We can’t begin the season with a popgun offense like we did last year. We can always make a July trade to add a rental again if needed, but meanwhile, we can give our dominant pitching staff a chance to win with a lineup like this.
Dexter Fowler or Denard Span
Ben Zobrist
Michael Conforto
Curtis Granderson
David Wright
Lucas Duda
Travis d’Arnaud
Wilmer Flores
pitcher
All things hinge on Murphy accepting/rejecting that qualifying offer.
I would love to bring in Zobrist and a leadoff hitter but I don’t want to lose another pick.
We’ll get a draft pick back for Murphy. His decision is easy. What would you rather have, 1 year of 15.8 million or 4 years of 12 million?
A couple of things, with Dilson in the wings, no way they offer Zobrist a rich contract like that. Two years maybe however, they may as well resign Murphy who won’t cost them a draft pick. Secondly, I just don’t think Grandy profiles as a middle of order hitter anymore. He adapted his approach at the plate to bat lead off, don’t mess with it. I do think if they’re building their team around the pitching, stronger defense up the middle is essential and they’re saddled with infielders (except for Tejada) who are more bat than glove.
That needs to be remedied so some of those groundballs that squeeked through
the inf in the WS turn into outs
I like the idea of zobrist at 3 years 45 million with a club option for year 4 @ 20 with a 5 million dollar buyout. I don’t see the mets signing Jackson my preference would be Para. Because with the glut of OF’ers on the market I belive one of Heyward, Cespedes, Upton or Para will come back to the pack a bit so I may revisit cEs if he falls but I think you gan get para for 4 years 40 million so assumeing Para for now you would have this Lineup.
VS RHP
Granderson
Zobrist
Wright
Duda
TAD
Conforto
Para
Floris
VS LHP
Granderson
Zobrist
Wright
Duda
TAD
Conforto
Foris
Juan
of course there are other things you have to do like being in a back up 3rd base option like KJ who also gives you a lefty off the bench and then decide if you want Tejada back or if you think there are better FA or organizational options for that 2nd bench infielder. Likewise you have to see if Jon Niece serves you better as a 5th starter or if he can bring back a good bullpen arm or bench peace. All of this is what makes the off season interesting.
Signing Ben Zobrist would improve the Mets. He could be the starting shortstop and spell Wright at third on a regular basis. He hasn’t played SS since 2014 and has a career -6 Rdrs/yr. Second base is his best position but Dilson Herrera is a player that BR projects to be a .734 OPS player in 2016. Zobrist ,fyi, is projected to achieve a .759 OPS. Zobrist would indeed give the Mets an offensive first SS that they thought they had in Flores but Flores with his .703 OPS disappointed the Mets. MLBTR projects a 3/51 contract but because of all the interest in him he will probably demand a 4/68. Zobrist does not have a qualifying offer attached which increases his appeal.
The Mets have options this winter and Zobrist is one of them.
I agree he is a perfect fit. Unfortunately Sandy seems intent on going with Herrera at second.
If Zobrist could play 100 games at SS in 2016, I’d be all in favor of signing him. I don’t know if he can play there that regularly. I very much want to see Herrera get the chance to play the majority of games at 2B. He’s hit everywhere with the Mets in the minors and I expect he’ll hit with the Mets in the majors if they give him a chance. And while there’s little chance they would install him at leadoff right away, he could easily assume that position by the end of the year.
I hope we don’t ever trot out a lineup where Flores bats ahead of Conforto.
Shame we couldnt get Andrelton Simmons. He’s a game changer. As much as I’m not thrilled with Flores/Tejada, for now we’re getting more production out of SS than 2/3 of the league and for a reasonable cost. No sense overpaying for Desmond, Castro, Andrus, et al.
I think to get the braves to trade Simons in division the price would have been too high for a number 8 hitter notwithstanding his great D I would not have traded any of the top five SP’s for him.
Tejada is a non-tender candidate.
I’ve been in the “if you can’t beat ’em, sign ’em” camp — the old Yankee model.
So I’ve been calling for the Mets to sign Zobrist and Alex Gordon and call it a day.
I’m down. Can Gordon play CF anymore?
That’s the question.
Im in on Zobrist. My moves this year would be Zobrist, Parra, and O’Day or Soria.
I do not want to see Herrera at 2B. We cannot spoil the richness of the newx few years of superior pitching with a development project in the middle infield. I store him in Vegas, and let him tear the cover off the ball for the whole year, and let him mature into being a big leaguer.
My wild card move is for Todd Frazier. Our situation at 3B is a disaster and the Reds are in sell mode. I move Dom Smith to get him. I give DW a big mitt and platoon him with Duda.
Prospects are fine, but Parades are better.
They’re not trading Frazier for Dom Smith. Guaranteed they want a SP. The more I think about it the more I think they’ll hold onto Murph for several reasons; one, infield versatility, two,good inf bat and three, his playoff performance. If Zobrist wants more than 2 years, no way.
Rather than hoping for the best, Mets front office needs to plan for the worst. They have to assume Cuddyer will be useless, Wright will miss a bunch of games and not be the player he was, Herrera won’t be immediately good and Wheeler won’t return in June at 100%. Upgrading at SS allows Flores to be a utility player who can be insurance behind wright and herrera.
Matt I just don’t see Comforto in the 3 slot. Too much pressure. How about having Granderson bat 3rd, Wright clean up and Duda 5th? With TDA and Comforto following up? Stretches the line up. We need Alderson to move (dump) Cuddyer ASAP. We’ll see.
I’m betting on hot stove parts and pieces, with the “big powder” moves coming if and when they need them…… for instance, addressing 3b and Wright.
Johnson seems like a good re sign in that parts and pieces mold. Span…Parra?
Zobrist at 4 and 74….. amazing… no thanks. ….most especially if you’re thinking of h8m as a SS.
Correction: Jessica Alba would look great in a Mets uniform. Zobrist would look great only to his wife. A player like this is insurance for the Mets. Against DW not playing a full season or Herrera not being ready this year or ever. But there are many other options to provide this type of insurance which are likley less expensive in the short team and depending on how many years Zobrist gets definitely in the long term. At his age I wouldn’t want to go more than 2 years. NL teams donthave the luxury of hiding their roster mistakes in the DH slot.
We tried Grandy batting 4th and look what happened. He was never a middle of the order hitter in his past we tried it one year and he failed… I don’t think we should try it again. He’s a top of the order hitter who needs to be able to be patient and take walks if that’s what the pitcher gives him. When he can do that he thrives… i’d love Span at the top and then batting grandy 2nd (for RHP) but he’s not a traditional power hitter.
I bat Conforto 3rd and maximize what the Mets get out of his bat, which could be huge. Guy needs to be in the middle of the New Mets.
Trade Duda for Arms/Prospects…. sign Murph, Parra/Span, Kelly J
Murph @ 1st….. Herrera at 2nd
Cuddy is RH OF Bat…some 1b…. Flores and Tejada do SS…. lot’s of flex to fill for D Wright. Plenty of OF Flex, D, Speed.
Team is Faster and better defensively
Keep powder dry for in-season Tweeks
This assumes that Cespee is Gone
Wow. Isn’t it nice to have money. Have all of you folks forgotten these are the Mets? The only reasons they signed Cuddyer was it was two years, and he fit the needs perfectly. But again, it was Two years.