The 2015 Mets were full of holes; no fan or analyst could argue that. Obviously the team improved at the deadline, but they still didn’t quite have the team to win it all. In the postseason, many things went right for the Metropolitans in the first two rounds. However, in the World Series the bats went quiet as the pitching imploded- starters and relievers alike. The offense is a topic for another day and the starting pitching will only go up from here, but the biggest problem was that Jeurys Familia was completely overworked by the Fall Classic. This was mainly because there was an alarming lack of options to bridge the gap to Familia. There are a ton options for the Mets to consider internal and external for next season. Here they are by their potential role:
(Vic Black and Bobby Parnell have been left off for obvious reasons)
BOLD = Currently a Free Agent
Closer:
Jeurys Familia
At this point, there are no other options that can even be considered for this role in 2016. For the first two rounds of the postseason he didn’t allow a run and completed every win for the Metropolitans. The guy pitched two innings in Game 5 of the NLDS and even got an at-bat in the middle. He is a true workhorse and will likely be a staple of the team again.
Chances of making the roster: 100%
Set-up:
Picked up at the waiver deadline, Reed was an absolute God-send for this team. The Mets were having trouble solidifying the seventh inning, and searched for a cheap bullpen arm. Along came Reed to save the day. It became quite clear that he is only effective when starting an inning and then promptly finishing it. When brought in to fix a mess, he becomes as talented as Frank Francisco. He will be worth over $5 million in 2016, which might give the Mets fits. If the Mets are smart, they will bring the kid back.
Chances of returning: 60%
Another God-send for the Mets was former Nationals closer Clippard. When acquired, it was believed that Parnell, Mejia, Clippard, and Familia would round out the most formidable bullpen in the National League. This did not go according to plan, but Clippard held up his end of the bargain for his first month as a Met. After a meltdown in Miami, he was never the same which leaked over into October. He might be too expensive for the Mets to even bother with at this point, but he was certainly a good soldier for the 2015 Mets.
Chances of returning: 5%
Darren O’Day
Released by the Mets in 2010, O’Day has become one of the more respected set-up men in the majors for his submarine delivery and remarkable control. He is one of the hottest commodities on the market in terms of relief help and would be a great option to bridge the gap from Reed to Familia. His 2.08 8th inning ERA in 2015 and 2.29 career 8th inning ERA could be quite attractive to Alderson. He might be expensive, but his peripherals continue to trend in the right direction: higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate in 2015 compared to 2014. He’s not a hard thrower and has an easily repeatable delivery. Spend the money Mr. Alderson.
Chances of arriving: 35%
At one point in time, Soria and his crazy curveball were considered one of the most fearful ninth inning threats in the game. Since his return from Tommy John surgery, he has bounced around teams and roles. He has gotten two closer roles from Texas and Detroit before getting traded to be a set-up man both times. In 2014, he did not respond well to the change, but in 2015 he rallied quite well. His 2.03 ERA once arriving in Pittsburgh was superb as another bullet out of the Pirates bullpen. He was mainly placed in the seventh inning for the Pirates and succeeded, but his numbers during the eighth inning are alarming even for just seven games. If the Mets were to sign him, he would likely adjust quickly. This would not be a stupid pick-up.
Chances of arriving 25%
Of the most attractive options that the Mets see as bullpen upgrades, Tony Sipp is the youngest and the only lefty. After up and down seasons in Cleveland and Arizona, Sipp found his niche in Houston. He posted excellent numbers across the board in 2015 including his remarkable 1.02 ERA in the eighth inning. He posted great numbers against both righties and lefties in 2015 (.190/.243/.370 vs. righties and .227/.290/.309 vs. lefties). He has postseason experience after posting solid numbers in the ALDS this season. Acquiring an extra lefty who can retire both types of hitters is valuable and would be a solid, cheap pickup for the Metropolitans.
Chances of arriving: 40%
Overall, the set-up men for the Mets in 2015 seemed to be a problem when it mattered most. If the Mets can shore up the bridge to Familia, it would seem that a lack of offense could be made up for…. maybe.
Middle Relief:
After traveling much of the minor leagues as a starting pitcher, Robles made the transition to the bullpen, with much success. He seemed to be one of the more fearless pitchers to walk on the mound in 2015. With quick pitches and a 99 mph heat, Robles seemed to do the Mets well this season and would be a great option to bring back. The only problem that he faces is his inability to appear in the middle of an inning and clean up a mess-which is keeping him from set-up status.
Chances of making the roster: 85%
He was not exactly a high priority from other organizations and Mets fans were not in his boat either. But this Rule V draft pick proved everyone wrong in 2015. He posted a remarkable 2.67 ERA over the course of the season and seemed to be the only constant for a team that struggled bridging the gap to the closer. Like Robles, he has trouble cleaning up a mess. Hopefully he develops in 2016 which could lead to him becoming a better pitcher.
Chances of making the roster: 75%
Morris is not the specimen of a perfect debut. Without any seasoning above A+ St. Lucie, the Mets threw him against the toughest lineup in baseball. He did not have much success. After getting demoted from the majors he was quite successful in AA Binghamton, leading many to believe that he still has a ton of potential. He could be called up in case of an emergency or injury, but he won’t crack the roster if everyone is healthy.
Chances of making the roster: 1%
Goeddel is not the best pitcher out there. He doesn’t have the best stuff, he doesn’t throw the hardest, and he’s not the most coveted on the roster. But, gosh darnit, he’s effective. After solid innings in the beginning of the season and towards the end, it seems that his value is actually higher than we originally anticipated. It would be a shame to not see him on the Opening Day roster.
Chances of making the roster: 60%
Overall, the middle relief depth looks solid internally, with a wealth of homegrown pitchers supporting the staff. With most of them getting postseason experience and tons of big outs, they can only go up from 2015.
Long Relief:
Of all the rookies to make their debut for the Mets in 2015, it seems like Verrett’s season was the most undervalued. After shutting down the Rockies for eight innings in his first big league start, he would go on to make some quality spot starts with some quality relief appearances sprinkled in. The Mets already know what life is like without him, and it seems they don’t want to see that again. It would be valuable to give him a roster spot with the possible opportunity at spot starts.
Chances of making the roster: 25%
Torres has been a good soldier for the Mets over the past three seasons, but all good things come to an end. Now that he will cost the Mets more than minimum salary, it seems that he is too expensive for the club. However, it seems like Alderson and Collins like him, so there is a small possibility that he will be tendered. As his 4.68 ERA isn’t as good as it once was with the team, it would wise to move on.
Chances of staying: 5%
This is where the fights begin. After being considered one of the Mets brightest young stud starters in the minor leagues, Montero has not pitched since April. No one really knows what happened to him. It was enough of a mystery for Collins to go down to Port St. Lucie himself and find out. If he is healthy, the Mets will certainly look for places to let him pitch. If not, he will continue to rot in the minor leagues.
Chances of making the roster: 30%
While it’s often the most underappreciated role, the Mets have had a constant source of reliability in long relief over the past three years. In the likely departure of Torres, someone must fill his place. Hopefully effectively.
LOOGY:
Blevins remains perfect in a Mets uniform. He had pitched five innings in seven appearances during April of 2015. He is currently a free agent, but not exactly a hot commodity on the market, making it likely that reunion between the two is not out of the question. After demonstrating what he did in April, it would be nice to keep him for another season.
Chances of returning: 25%
The Mets seem to be very confident about this kid for whatever reason. He hasn’t been very effective against either righties or lefties, with an alarming .964 OPS against lefties in a mere 12 plate appearances. The Mets will likely give him a chance to succeed later in the season, but he does not seem like a viable candidate for a full-time role in the pen.
Chances of making the roster: 2%
Eric O’Flaherty:
Just kidding!
For some reason, Edgin is my favorite relief pitcher on the Mets. I couldn’t possibly explain why or how. All I can say is that when Tommy John Surgery caught up to him, this writer was absolutely distraught. If he is ready for Spring Training, the Mets better consider this kid for their bullpen. He can retire both lefties and righties with effectiveness; .185/.217/.323 vs. lefties and .218/.286/.250 vs. righties in 2014. He was one of the more effective pitchers for the Mets in 2014 and there is no doubt in my mind he will continue to improve.
Chances of making the roster: 40% (If healthy)
This section was only included to irk the owner of mets360.com: Brian Joura. He is not a fan of the LOOGY, and Mr. Joura has swayed toward his side over the past few years- especially after watching what O’Flaherty did. Edgin and Blevins have the makeup to be effective middle relief pitchers or even set-up men because of their ability to retire both righties and lefties. Guys like Alvarez and O’Flaherty simply waste space on rosters with their limited ability. There’s nothing wrong with having a guy on a roster who can retire lefties well (and it’s not bad for them to be lefty), but to limit them to one out per game is almost pointless.
Overall, the Mets bullpen seems to be in much better shape with the help of a move or two. This franchise has built their bullpen in the correct way -converting former burned-out starters to relief pitchers. It seems to have worked in the Mets favor as Familia, Robles, Gilmartin, Goeddel, Verrett, and Montero all could be cornerstones of a great future bullpen. Finally, the Mets are only a move away from formulating a great conclusion to a game. This is how it should round out:
CL: Familia
SU: Reed
SU: O’Day/Sipp/Soria
MR: Goddel
MR: Robles
MR: Gilmartin/Edgin/Blevins
LR: Verrett
Brian’s gonna love this. I’m an Edgin fan too and look forward to getting him back. I totally agree that adding one proven setup man is all this pen needs. Don’t forget there will be no innings limits this year so i think will see fewer 6 inning starts.
What? No Scott Rice?
Without EO around, who is Brian Joura going to pick on?
Hey, play fair! Shoulda told us that Josh Edgin was your favorite before I invested all that time reading.
Kidding.
Paying nearly 6 million to Reed would be a dumb move. Heck, i don’t think i’d even give him 6 million over 2 years. Guy’s career ERA+ is 102, which means he’s been a league average pitcher, and a below average reliever. I wouldn’t spend more than 1.5 mil for a guy like him
You could probably pick up Steve Cishek for not much, and he’s been way better than Reed in his career.
I dont know why Mets fans like him so much. September was a pretty meaningless month for the Mets, and most of his appearances in the postseason were in garbage time.
The Met bullpen should be a strong point. Familia is a good closer with a 1.00 WHIP and a 9.92 K/9 rate. It appears that Reed will be tendered based on the 15.1 innings he pitched as a Met at a cost of around a $5.7m salary. Alderson doesn’t throw money around so he must see something in Reed. Robles with his 1.02 WHIP and 10.17 K/9 rate or Goeddel who has a 0.99 WHIP and 9.18 K/9 rate should compete for the 7th inning spot. Eric has a very good HR/9 rate of 0..27 where as Hansel has a horrible 1.33 rate. A year of experience should make them better pitchers. Gilmartin is a middle of the pack middle reliever and should return. Gilmartin had the second best NL HR/9 of 0.17. Logan Verrett should be stretched out at AAA where he can spot start in the rotation and be injury insurance. Montero, because he has not adapted to relief work, should also be a AAA filler. Carlos Torres could hang on as a LR innings eater but he is a weak link that could be replaced. When Josh Edgin is healthy he could compete for the seventh inning spot but not a LOOGY.
Among the other players listed in the article , some will fill the rest of the bullpen.Tony Sipp is a LHP free agent who could be a cheaper alternative to Reed with an MLBTR contract of 3/12. Maybe Sandy will get giddy and get him in addition to Reed and make a strong bullpen stronger.
I think the bullpen as it currently stands is a weakness. Familia is fabulous, and then there’s nobody except some serviceable bodies. No shutdown arms at a time when that is at an absolute premium, particularly in this new postseason world the Mets find themselves in. Robles might develop. Reed is okay as a 7th inning guy. If Edgin is good next season, it will be his first. I’m not counting on it. Yes, you can cobble a pen together out of spare parts cost-effectively, and there are significant issues with the year-to-year reliability of relievers, but to be a champion in today’s baseball requires a very solid bullpen. The Mets don’t have one. It’s a problem.
BTW, I thought the Red Sox did very well to grab Kimbrel and push their closer to the 8th inning.
Reed was ok, not great. For $6 million, think Mets can do better. I would consider spending that money in part on O’Day, Blevins and keep developing the other guys like Robles, Gilmartin, Goedell, Edgin.
The real $$$ has to be found and spent to replace the runs and overall offense that Mets will be losing in Murph and Cespedes…ouch…just thinking about it in November hurts, not to imagine March if nothing has been done by then !!!