FreeJaunLagaresIn April of this year, the Mets signed Juan Lagares to a five-year deal with an option.  It was quite a change from a year previously when Chris Young was brought in for insurance.  The insurance route turned out to be a disaster and the “all eggs in the Lagares basket” didn’t work out exactly as planned, either.  Lagares couldn’t throw, he didn’t make the fantastic catches of the previous two seasons and the hits stopped falling in so frequently.  The Mets made getting a center fielder a priority at the deadline and it looks like they’ll do the same thing this offseason.  With that in mind, check in on our original piece to see what we thought coming into the year.  Here was our group forecast:

PA – 561
AVG – .270
OBP – .320
SLG – .370
HR – 7
RBI – 50
SB – 22

Here’s how Lagares actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.

PA – 465
Best – Koehler (475)
Worst – Hangley (692)

AVG – .259
Best – Walendin (.259)
Worst – McCarthy (.296)

OBP – .289
Best – Joura (.281)
Worst – Hangley (.342)

SLG – .358
Best – Albanesius, Koehler (.360)
Worst – Hangley, Netter (.410)

HR – 6
Best – Newman, Walendin (6)
Worst – Netter (12)

RBIs – 41
Best – Ferguson (45)
Worst – Netter (71)

SB – 7
Best – Vasile (15)
Worst – Hangley (28)

We actually did pretty well considering how much of an unexpected year it was for Lagares.  Our group forecast was off on playing time, OBP and steals and the latter was the only one we missed on an individual basis.  Our group forecast was pretty similar to Steamer and ZiPS, with only our SB projection noticeably different.

As for Lagares and 2016, at this point – who knows?  His final 2015 numbers only look this good thanks to a strong second half where he was being platooned.  In the first half of the year, Lagares had a .623 OPS, compared to the .709 mark he put up after the break.

It certainly seems to the naked eye that something is off with Lagares.  If you recall, his 2014 season ended early in September with an injured shoulder.  He did not have surgery in the offseason and he appeared to still be experiencing problems with the shoulder throughout 2015.  During the year, there were rumors of offseason surgery but now the news is that he once again will not go under the knife.

This time a year ago, the thought was that Michael Cuddyer and Lagares would hold down two of the three outfield spots in 2016.  Cuddyer has already been replaced and it will surprise few people if the Mets don’t import at least a platoon CF before the start of next season.  That’s $15 million of outfield reserves.  And while the lion’s share of that comes from Cuddyer, who will be off the books following 2016, Lagares’ contract becomes progressively more expensive.

12 comments on “Mets360 2015 projection review: Juan Lagares

  • James Preller

    I don’t know what to think anymore about his future. It’s probably the toughest call for the organization, because he think he could range from being a plus to a significant minus. An asset to a mistake. So in that sense, I think they are right to seek “Lagares Insurance” for 2016.

    He should play better than he actually does, tools-wise. Unfortunately, that’s true of hundreds of ballplayers.

    I’m not a believer, but I can’t say that I’ve totally given up hope.

    • Brian Joura

      Right now, I think his floor is platoon CF. Unfortunately, that may be his ceiling, too.

  • LG

    It was his elbow not his shoulder. The injury was probably why his throwing slipped, it doesn’t explain his drop off in range though. I don’t think it has much to do with his lousy hitting either. He has a bad approach at the plate. There were some rumors that he gained weight over the offseason, maybe that impacted his quickness. I don’t know. I hope the Mets add another OFer though, I don’t trust Lagares to be a good everyday player.

  • NormE

    I thought Lagares looked lost, hurt and overweight. I think the Mets coaching staff would benefit from a guy similar to Juan Uribe—-an older player, perhaps Hispanic, who could reach out to Juan in a way that the present staff may not have. The talent is still there, one hopes, but most of 2015 was below what Met fans were hoping for.
    If Denard Span is available at a Wilpon-palatable cost, I would pull the trigger.

    • Julian

      Someone finally said it! Denard Span would be the perfect fit (wish I could capitalize perfect). When you think about it, there is no one on the market who is similar to Lagares- except Span. Both are swing happy, defensive-minded center fielders. A one-year platoon between the two could not only boost the confidence of the kid, but propel a currently suspect offense.

      • Name

        Another scenario that makes zero sense for the player…

        If Span were to take a 1 year contract to rebuild his value, why would he ever choose a club where he isn’t promised everyday ABs and platooned?

        Not to pick on your personally (everybody does it), but when you think of scenarios, you have to think about it from the Point of View for the team and the player.

  • Name

    It amazes me how many GMs are looking to sign players after career years. And this looks to be the case of a guy slacking off after conning a GM to sign him long term.

    The biggest culprit is looking at his steals, a component that shouldn’t ever really “slump” (or not as much as other parts). The minimum someone called for in the projection piece was 15, and nearly everyone had 20+. Instead, he stole a paltry 7 bases, and none after August. To me, that just indicates laziness and an unwillingness to play hard.

    He got his money, and frankly, he doesn’t give a crap anymore.

  • Chris F

    I’m not prepared to say he took his money and ran.

    I’m hoping whatever medical advice he keeps getting that says he doesn’t need surgery is better than it looks.

  • Matty Mets

    I had very high hopes for him as reflected in my lofty projections. Wishful thinking, but I was hoping he’d blossom into a leadoff hitter. I think we have to give him another shot. Maybe signing a platoon/4th OF is the answer.

  • TexasGusCC

    I see Name’s point, but I will try a different angle, that Lagares was legitamently hurt. We know for sure he was hurt because the team wouldn’t let him cut loose last spring and teams were running on him in the early part with no problem but he also seemed to not be working too hard on improving. Maybe the injury affected his preparation and mindset for the season as we saw less defensive excellence than we became accustomed to. This may be seen if he plays winter ball…

    If Lagares can regain his defensive form, even as a #7 or #8 hitter he will do. As it was pointed out by Brian (I believe) not too long ago, Lagares had derived most of his WAR from his defense, so offense was never his calling card. At this point, you could bring in Parra, trade for Blackmon or another available lefty CF, or if Cuddyer is healthy (maybe looking for a contract can get his interest) move Granny to CF because I don’t know that he will be any worse than Cespedes was anyway – and the options get even worse after that.

    The lineup will mostly depend on the health of players like Wright and d’Arnaud and the advancement of Herrera and Flores, anyway.

  • TexasGusCC

    Had to copy this from MMO, as kidc11 posted this for an article discussing the addition of Denard Span. His point of Lagares having a better World Series than Cespedes doesn’t take into consideration that the Mets aren’t even in the World Series if Cespedes isn’t a main cog, but it’s a highly entertaining post:

    It’s incredible how many think Lagares is no good. I guess hitting .348 in the post season, leading the team in SB’s with 2, with hits against 100 mph righties like Herrera and Jansen doesn’t count. I guess being second on the team in BA in ’14, this year through 8/1, this year after 8/1, and leading the team in BA in the post season doesn’t count. Do fans realize that the 4 teams Cespedes hit 14 hr’s against and batted .291, Lagares was 18 for 46, or .391 with 3 hr’s? It’s like fans are believing TC’s BS. Yo, pay attention. We don’t need a CF’er. We need a 3rd baseman, 1st baseman, bullpen help and a SS(a real one). And hopefully TDA will throw out some runners. Look at what might have been in the WS had Lagares started:
    Game 1- he catches the first pitch and we win. As it happened, he scored go ahead run after coming in for defense, singling, stealing 2b, and scoring on Flores’ shot down the line(ruled an error)which Familia blew.
    Game 4- Matz pitching beautifully, til Cespedes doesn’t get popup, then boots it for 2 bases. Lagares catches that ball and we win that game.
    Game 5- Cespedes bangs ball off knee, and knucklehead TC leaves him in with 2 strikes. He pops to SS with bases loaded and none out, doing zilch for the game. If TC pinch hits for him with Lagares, maybe Lagares hits a fly ball, a base hit, anything. If so, we win that game.
    When people think we need a CF’er, not sure they know baseball. TC blew the WS by his lineups. Kelly Johnson over Lagares? Please.

  • Charlie Hangley

    Man, did I totally whiff on Lagares or what???

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