You read that right. Mike Pelfrey will earn more than the entire Mets rotation in 2016. Thanks, collective bargaining! Pelfrey, the one-time solid Mets pitcher turned journeyman, inked a two-year deal worth more than $8 million per season to round out the Tigers’ rotation. Since he left the Mets after the 2012 season, he has gone 11-27 with a 4.94 ERA. Nevertheless, this coming season Detroit is going to pay their familiar fifth starter more than the Mets will pay Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler combined.
Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz and Wheeler will collectively earn about $7 million in 2016. That’s less than we’ll be paying Asdrubal Cabrera, our new shortstop. Harvey, arbitration eligible for the first time, is expected land a contract between $4.4 and $5.2 million – pretty much the going rate for a solid middle reliever. Meanwhile, the other four, all in pre-arbitration years, will each earn slightly over the league minimum, somewhere around $600,000. Coming off two excellent seasons and just entering his prime with a near minimum salary, deGrom may be the most underpaid player in baseball right now. Ditto Syndergaard if he can pick up where he left off, blazing smoke past hitters in the playoffs.
Perhaps the Mets’s big five aren’t all quite aces yet, as Mets360 readers were quick to remind this writer a few weeks ago. An ace is generally thought of as a front-of-the-rotation pitcher expected to throw 200+ innings, win 15+ games, stop losing streaks and contend for a Cy Young Award. The going rate for such a pitcher is now $30 million per year as part of a 5 to 8 year contract. Top starters Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke and David Price all have $200 million plus contracts. Johnny Cueto is next in line for such a deal. Contending teams are engaged in bidding wars to secure their own ace – a necessary piece to the playoff puzzle, but a limited commodity.
By the definition above, at least the first three Mets pitchers are on the cusp. Wheeler probably needs a season to bounce back and Matz needs a bit of seasoning, but they certainly all have the potential to become front line starters. To have five pitchers of such caliber on one team is an embarrassment of riches these days.
Through smart drafts, trades, organizational development and a little luck, the Mets are uniquely positioned as the only team in baseball with five, count ‘em five, coveted arms. And these arms are not just coveted for their ability; they are highly sought after for their value.
Imagine you own an authentic Picasso painting and you just found out a similar one sold for $50 million. Our team has at least three, maybe four or five Picasso’s quickly gaining value. The Mets are sitting on a gold mine.
We may have fallen short of a World Series win, but we are the envy of the league. For now, General Manager Sandy Alderson and his lieutenants have steadfastly insisted that none of these young guns are available in trade. Although we very nearly traded Wheeler over the summer, but that’s another story. This formidable staff will grow more so as innings limits are removed, injuries are overcome, confidence is gained and chemistry is developed with catchers Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki. Pitching alone cannot win championships, but as we learned with the Braves teams of the 90s, it can be enough to keep you in contention.
Given the market value for top starting pitchers and the unlikelihood of a Wilpon-owned team ever supporting a Yankees/Dodgers payroll, it’s obvious that we won’t be able to keep this quintet of golden arms together for long. While they cost $7 million this year, that number will rise incrementally the next few years as the pitchers reach arbitration.
It’s not easy to project out salaries given that arbitration years can be impacted by super 2 status, inflation, arbitration, buyout contracts and other factors. Looking at the salary histories of Max Scherzer and David Price for reference, top pitchers seem to go from $5/$10/$15 million in their arbitration years to $30 million in the first year of their contract. For the sake of discussion, here are some projections:
2016: $7 million (Harvey – arb 1)
2017: $17 million (Harvey – arb 2, Wheeler – arb 1)
2018: $36 million (Harvey – arb 3, Wheeler – arb 2, deGrom and Syndergaard – arb 1)
2019: $70 million (Harvey – FA, Wheeler – arb 3, deGrom and Syndergaard – arb 2, Matz – arb 1)
2020: $100 million (Harvey – FA, Wheeler – FA, deGrom and Syndergaard – arb 3, Matz – arb 2)
No team can support a $100 million rotation, and not many could support a $70 million rotation. Realistically, the Mets will have to either trade two of them, or risk losing them to free agency. Given the current rate of inflation, draft picks will be more valuable than ever, so that’s some consolation. The other consolation is that, given the demand for front line pitching, the Mets will be able to ask for a haul in return when the time comes.
In the meantime, there’s no rush. For the next two, possibly three seasons, the Mets should go to battle with a formidable and affordable rotation that will be the envy of the entire league. For now, we not only possess a sturdy foundation for sustained success, but we hold a very tall stack of chips we can cash in when the time is right.
So, knowing that our window to capitalize on what will become a billion dollar rotation, does it not make you wonder why the Mets dont ever extend right now for key player like a Ces or Upton or Frazier when that kind of deal would make them dangerous for the next few years?
Excellent write up! We have a two or three year window to win. Why do the Mets continue to play in the secondary market? Go get one of the big free agent outfielders. Heyward, Ces, Upton. We saw the difference that it made during the second half last season. If we cannot afford it now, we will never be able to afford them. Besides, they will make the money back in ticket sales and other related revenue.
Perhaps Sandy’s MO is to go the rental route again in July and just make sure we don’t have any glaring holes going into the season. But as I’ve said, the field may not have holes, but the lineup does. Unless Conforto quickly develops into a star, this lineup will not feature a big bat.
Unfortunately what we need is tough to find – a big bat who can play CF. On the open market, the only player who fits that description is Cespedes, and unless his market drops significantly that ship has sailed. I still think Heyward, despite his lack of power, can slot in behind Grandy and help the offense with his contact and baserunning, while preventing runs with his defense.
I laugh and giggle every time and I see or hear Wheeler mentioned as an ace already or a potential ace.Wake up and smell the roses, he’s nothing more than a back of the rotation filler
check out the animated gifs in this article and tell me if you still feel the same way about Wheeler. He has electric stuff.
http://www.faketeams.com/2015/11/12/9718436/coming-off-of-elbow-surgery-the-mets-think-that-zack-wheeler-may-be?_ga=1.171878624.1544413635.1447421888
Well sure. He for sure has some awesome pitches, and taken out of context, he would have a 0.00 ERA. Unfortunately, he has a fastball that tails up and out of the zone to lefty’s. His control has been pretty poor, and we know that becuase he averaged a tick under 6 ip per outing. Thats not ace stuff. Admittedly, he has been pitching broken. So, while Name and I have been the hardest on Wheeler around these parts, Im giving him one more length of rope to see if the surgery helped. Im forcing myself to be optimistic.
Good for you! I’m legitimately pleased to hear that you’re going to try to be optimistic.
part of the holiday spirit Brian.
Seriously, I followed his last starts in LV pretty carefully (my in-laws have Rainiers season tix), and before his call up he was all over the place. I think between the bone spurs and UCL that his best days may be in front of him. At least I hope they are. And all the recent medical work indicates he was below full strength.
Besides that, hes a nice guy. So while I bust his chops, he is a Met and will get my support.
I could probably compile just as many gifs of him throwing meatballs down the pipe that get destroyed by the batter
271 Ks in 285.1 innings pitched with a 3.50 ERA in his first two seasons with a bad elbow. He’s 25 years old, throws high 90s and has 4 legit pitches.
He cant throw 6 innings per game. Thats not more than mid rotation quality. He has poor control. He consistently had 18 pitch innings. He placed a ton of stress on the pen.
Kershaw is 27 and won 3 CY awards. Thats what an ace looks like.
Those numbers are not even close to ace-like. And no, having good stuff doesn’t make qualify you for ace status either. Just ask AJ Burnett.
Cubs outdo the Mets again and sign Heyward.
Mike, I don’t follow. The Mets weren’t offering a 35 year old second baseman more than the Cubs did. In fact, when Zobrist signed, he said that the Nationals and Giants offered more money than the Cubs but he wanted to play with Maddon. Never mentioned the Mets. We were killing them for even being interested, and I like Walker better.
As for Jason Heyward, they weren’t going to pay $188MM for a nice player, but not a superstar and I cant blame them. Heyward has been labeled as “talented” for quite a few years now when people are explaining his lack of breakout numbers. It may come, but it also may not.
Thank you TexasGus. I’ve been having this argument with BK for weeks. Heyward is a sabermetric darling and a solid player. He is not a lineup changer or drawing card. He’s a terrific outfielder who gets on base, not an MVP RBI machine. Contracts like that should go to great players, not good players.
This just in – Cuddyer is retiring! If we save his entire salart we need to bring back Cespy or atleast get Fowler or Span.
No Fowler, possibly Span, want Cespedes.
I cant believe what I’m hearing. Would love to hear his reason for passing up $12.5MM.
Have to think there was a negotiated buyout. Nobody leaves that much money on the table. Carton just pointed out that one year of savings does not make room for a six year contract. Nevertheless, they need to spend money to improve this lineup.
Flores better take grounders at first in spring training. He played there a bit in the minors and were gonna need a backup to Duda.
I have a different thought: What about a certain third baseman playing about 30 games at first against tough lefties or maybe good hitting righty catcher?
Your chart puts into perspective the daunting salaries that the Mets will have in the future. It is unreasonable to think that they could afford this rotation. The plan should be to offer extensions and if they are not accepted then trade the pitcher before their arb 3 year. The Mets were very good at trading veterans for prospects and they made it to the World Series with that plan.
In the meantime, with the surprising retirement of Cuddyer, the Mets are in position to add that big bat in Cespedes in order to increase the probability of making the playoffs each year. If they spend the money now they should increase revenue with their expected success on the field and possibly afford some of this rotation in the future. Nice article Matt.