daniel murphy stareOver the last few months many, including myself, have tried to predict what kind of contract Daniel Murphy would land once he became a free agent.

During the regular season my predictions were for something like three years, $36 million. Then Murph became Babe Ruth (Barry Bonds?) for two playoff rounds. At that point three years, $45 million sounded more like it. Then Murphy had an abysmal World Series at the bat and in the field. So maybe he punted a few million with that back to three years, $40 to 42 million.

We saw the Mets give Murphy the Qualifying Offer of $15.8 million for one year. This was a bit risky on the part of the team because had he accepted the QO it would have been a clear overpay for this player. Of course, the team was ready to go near 4 years, $60 million for Ben Zobrist who is a better player than Murphy but perhaps not that much better.

On Christmas morning it was revealed that Murphy’s deal with the Nationals is for 3 years, $37.5 million. I think that is getting the player for a good price. Had Murphy accepted the QO and become a free agent next year in a weak free agent class he probably could have netted himself a good bit more money.

The math is that had he taken the $15.8 million then next year as a free agent he would only need to get a 2 year offer of $21.7 million in order to match what he will be getting from the Nats. Another benefit for Murphy would have been an additional year with the Mets, the team he clearly preferred to remain with.

Apparently Washington hasn’t decided where Murphy will play. Their options include second base where they would have much improved offense but significantly worse defense or third base (with Anthony Rendon moving from third to second). My guess is that since Murphy’s best position is third and Rendon is at least league average defensively at second that that is the way they will go.

Personally I have always been a Murphy fan and supporter. I wish him only good things in his non-Mets career. Hopefully though he doesn’t become one of the many Mets killers we have had to endure over the years.

24 comments on “Some quick thoughts on Daniel Murphy signing with Washington

  • TexasGusCC

    Seeing Murphy in Nationals colors 19 times a year will help our disdain for ownership stay healthy. Not that he’s the missing link, but it will remind us that some teams try to get the best players available to win and some teams merely are happy with competing and “hey, you never know”.

    Let’s give away another real good prospect next August if we’re close where all these hitters are available now and pssst Sandy, you can trade them in two years for good prospects. Morons!

    • Brian Joura

      I don’t blame anyone for Murphy going. The Mets gave him the opportunity to come back on a one-year deal and he valued the multi-year contract more. Only Murphy can decide what’s best for him and I hope three years from now he feels he made the right choice. I think the Mets acted in their best interest by not going multiple years with him.

      • Chris F

        I agree totally. Murph was not the long term answer at 2B, which was clear. The QO was the 1 year the Mets wanted to offer before they believe Herrera will be ready.

      • TexasGusCC

        Brian, I agree on Murphy. I even said its Angels or Washington. What bothers me is what I wrote in the previous article: $13MM to de Aza and colon that could have been a 4 year offer to Gordon at about $15 per year. Then, in two years flip him for two prospects. I think Gordon and Gilmartin/Verrett/Montero is better than de Aza and colon, no? That’s what I meant when I said that 19 times a year we’ll remember how cheap and small minded our owners are.

  • James Preller

    Love Murphy. The Nationals did well. Guy has fire in his belly, wants to win more than any other Met on the field — to my eyes, at least. Now he’s a National, bringing those qualities that their team so woefully lacked.

  • Fred P

    I am happy for Murphy but like it has been said before he is not the answer. What I find funny is people are under the grand illusion that the more you spend the better your team will be. How many trips to the World Series did we make under the free spending Minaya years? None. It appears the Mets have plans for CF next year and didn’t feel what’s out there is not worth disrupting those plans. Look at the Red Sox when they signed 3 big free agents. They got nothing in return. Now they are in LA sputtering. Spending buckets of money doesn’t necessarily buy you a championship. LGM !!!

  • Ralph

    Signing Murphy for 3 years made no sense. Neil Walker + Sandwich pick is a smart move. With that said we need to do more, let’s not waste young controllable starting staff. We need a right handed slugger. The name Cespedes comes to mind. Sandy work your magic.

  • Metsense

    I like Murphy , his fire, his determination and his desire. I am sincerely glad that he got a three year contract and is financially secure for the rest of his life. I appreciate his time with the Mets on some poor teams where he was a positive beacon in a dim tunnel.
    The front office was correct in moving on and made a good acquisition in Walker.

    • James Preller

      I agree almost completely, Metsense, as usual, with one concern: Murphy could seamlessly fill in at 3B. In fact, as a fan, I think they’d be better off with Murphy there than Wright. Given his ability to move around, he could have been a solid piece for the Mets. The draft picks played into this heavily, and really tipped the scales in favor of moving on. Next year, if Walker splits, they get another pick (I think). That’s 2 picks vs. 0. But as someone who has a very bad feeling about Wright, Murphy was a solid insurance policy. All that said, very tough for Alderson to deal with the Wright situation.

      • Metsense

        Walker can play third (his original position) and Hererra will become the starting second baseman if Wright should be unable to perform.

  • norme

    All of the above comments are pretty astute. The one thing that hurts most is, as TexasGus said, Murph will be playing for the Nats.
    As for insurance for DW, the Mets can move Walker to 3B and bring up Herrera
    if needed. I think many of us are pessimistic about DW’s ability to perform at a healthy level.

    How about looking to move Harvey in a multi-team deal that would land McCutchen? Oh, forget it, the Wilpons would never pay for that.

  • Peter

    Totally agree with Mr. Preller about Wright. 50/50 whether you have a productive third basman or a very expensive sentimental albatross near the top of your lineup. Wright seems like a great guy so sure hope it’s the former. BTW, this aside, I’m not too bearish on the Mets lineup as it’s currently designed.

  • Matty Mets

    Wish he picked another team, and will miss him but it was the right move at this time to let him walk. If we didn’t have Wright locked up at third I’d feel differently, but 3 years of Murph at the keystone forcing us to trade Herrera didn’t make sense. I question other moves and non-moves, but not this one. Just was hoping to see Murph a little further from home.

  • ed m

    Who is playing 3rd when Wright gets hurt? Who is playing 1st when Duda dips to .180. A horrible job by the Mets to lose Murph.

  • Meticated

    What a roller coaster ride…April en fuego…who woulda thunk…then the typical crash and burn…offense was offensive…head under the covers couldn’t even bear to watch…Anderson sleight of hand, a little misdirection, and a la ca zamm… a legitimate visible miracle is born…we go on a tear…tear it up…spit them out one after another…Cespedes is positively glowing radioactively….then hibernation… lo and behold, the Murph morphs into the reincarnation of the Mighty King Kong…next thing, Cespedes has kryptonite up his sleeve…the parakeet dies…come October, I’m to be found in St. Louis unexpectedly, the lone Mets fan in a sports bar and off to Los Angeles with the Dodger’s president’s son at the Sabbath table breaking challah bread…and next scene, we as a team figuratively run out of gas somewhere in the desert outside Alberquerque. Ticket punched. Fork stuck in it. Now, as usual we find ourselves back to shopping at the 99 cent stores, and expecting the dollar brand detergent, from who knows where, which we fully know doesn’t clean like the regular expensive brands, to clean up our stank by July. Man, I’m glad I live in Sydney….

  • Dan

    The greatest thing Cuddier did was demonstrate to DW that when it’s time to go, it’s so long, no tears. I predict Captain America hangs it up after next year when he realizes the burden he’s putting on the team Maybe end of 2017, but I don’t see his body holding up that long. That said, I hope that assessment is totally off. LGM!!

  • NYM6986

    The reality is we will miss Murphy’s bat but not his glove. His miscues in the series just confirmed that we needed a defensive upgrade wherever he played. From the routine plays to turning the DP to his running the bases hurt our team as much as the doubles machine and lack of strikeouts helped. Want to feel better when we play the Nats? Hit the ball to Murphy. Had he accepted the one year qualifying offer he would’ve certainly been welcomed back to the team and served in that role as a sub for third-base and first base. But a 15 plus million sub is something no team wants. Good luck Murphy. Just not too much when we play against you.

  • LGMNOW

    In reading everyone’s comments a thought struck me. Why not move DW to he Mets FO s a PR man pay him good money to do it and retire his number and stick him in the Mets HOF. That frees a roster spot and gives Alderson more flexibility than he has otherwise on the team payroll parameters defined by Wilpon’s short sighted ownership decisions from he past. DW is better on sound bites than any other Met including Piazza who was great. Get it done and get ready to make what ever moves should have been made that were blocked because od DW’s burden of a contract. He could be on the SNY pay roll instead of the team pay roll and Wilpon’s financial parameters would shift. Who would like to comment on this? Tell me I am wrong or tell I am right or partially right or wrong. Tell me anything you like but of you do think out of the box. That’s what the Mets FO needs to have the flexibility to do in order to change he perceived context of the Mets in NYC and as one of 30 MLB teams profited daily on the MLB channel. Lets Go Mets!

    • Larry Smith

      I like your out of the box thinking but now I have to tell you that you are wrong.
      If Wright still has the potential to play in all likelihood he will want to play because his contract is huge and now he is coming to the years when he makes the most money. In each of the next three seasons he will make $20 million and then in 2019 he will make $15 million and in 2012 it will be $12 million. This is not like a Cuddyer one time miracle retirement.
      You say that they should pay him well to move to the front office. How about $5 million per year in order for him to retire right now? So they would owe him $25 million total instead of the $87 million currently due him. But then you expect the owners to turn around and use the $62 million saved on team payroll increases. This is where you just don’t get the Wilpons. They had a big infusion of dollars because the team went deep into the playoffs. They have said in the past that when the fans came and new revenues came in that they would increase payroll. Did they? No. Not a bit. Looks like they will be in the area of $105 to $110 million again this year.
      If Wright retires and moves to the front office and the team saved $62 million you can bet almost all of that goes into the Wilpons “pay our humongous debt” fund.

    • Jack Strawb

      Why not move David Wright to 1B? The Mets aren’t going to pay Duda’s salary after this season, and there’s less wear and tear on Wright.

  • Jack Strawb

    It’s worth noting that signing Murphy at 3/37.5m would have meant not getting the #17 pick in next year’s draft, which MLBTradeRumors values at around 10m.

    So, it would have cost the Mets around 16m per year for 3 years to keep Murphy, yet Murphy has been worth only around 1.5 wins a year for the past four years. Furthermore, Murphy turns 31 right around opening day. Players with his skills are often out of the majors within a couple of years.

    I hate to see him go, but it was the correct decision. Hated the Walker pickup, though, given that it cost a cheap, league average starter under reasonable control for the next three years, while Herrera looks ready to start at 2B. Herrera is exactly the sort of play a club with cheap ownership has to be putting out there every day.

    The Walker deal was a shame. Nice player, though.

  • Eraff

    Walker…..Herrera….Flores….. This is all dw insurance

    • NormE

      Exactly!

  • Conrad

    Love the Murph, hopefully he won’t come back and bite us. Taking thoughts and the written word from someone else. I believe the Murph would have been the utility player the Mets need

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