Mets winning the NL East is not a slam dunk

A big part of the Mets’ success in 2015 was their 47-29 record within the National League East. It certainly helped to have two teams in clear rebuilding mode, a third suffering injuries to its two key players, and the division favorite imploding down the stretch.  However, can we assume a similar division dominance in 2016? Many bloggers and sports writers seem to think so and that the Mets, as currently constituted, will be the heavy favorites to repeat as division champions. This blogger is not as confident.

Again in 2016, the MLB schedule calls for 19 games against each division opponent for a total of 76 games. So, nearly half of our regular season games will be played against the Phillies, Braves, Marlins or Nationals. Let’s take a look at how these teams are shaping up for 2016.

The Nationals
At this time last year, every baseball pundit was crowning the Nats the inevitable National League East champs, if not the World Series winners. Sports Illustrated proclaimed it so on a now laughable front cover story and league MVP Bryce Harper famously quipped, “where do I get my ring?” before the season started. When you look back, the optimism made sense. They were coming off a 96-win season and then added Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to a top notch rotation.

Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, and Gio Gonzalez were expected to form one of the best rotations ever. Meanwhile the Nationals’ lineup was thought to be solid with Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Denard Span, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Anthony Rendon.

And then the season actually started and we were quickly reminded how pennants are not won on paper. Scherzer lived up to his billing and Harper had a terrific season, but most of the rest of the team suffered through injuries and slumps in the first half. The team was confident that they could pull ahead in the second half when Span and Rendon were back from injuries, the slumping Werth and Desmond started hitting and the struggling Fister was replaced in the rotation by Tanner Roark.

The bullpen, which had lost Rafael Soriano and Tyler Clippard in the offseason, was struggling, so the front office decided to bolster the team with a deadline trade for the proven but mercurial closer, Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon supplanted Drew Storen, who had been effective all year. Storen went on to struggle in a setup role while Papelbon went on to attack Harper in the dugout and create locker room tension. This episode epitomized a lost season that spiraled downward from there.

The Nats have made a few moves since then. So, should we expect to see the 2014 world beaters or the 2015 train wreck this year? The rotation will still be led by Scherzer, Strasburg and Gonzalez, but Fister and Zimmermann are now replaced by Tanner Roark and Joe Ross. Still a formidable fivesome, if slightly inferior. The bullpen, at the moment, still features both Papelbon and Storen, but rumor has it the Nats have been desperately trying to trade one of them and are still in the hunt for more bullpen help. Thus far, they’ve added former Mets’ erratic starter-turned-LOOGY, Ollie Perez.  The lineup will again feature Harper and a now healthy Rendon, but otherwise looks weaker. Desmond and Span have both departed and the aging Zimmerman and Werth will be back. They did add our old friend Daniel Murphy’s bat to the lineup, but also his glove to an already less than stellar defense. Barring another free agent signing or trade, they’ll be counting on the quick development of Trea Turner and Michael Taylor and the health of two aging players to keep this offense afloat.

It’s hard to feel confident about this team at the moment, however, they have a terrific rotation, a proven closer, a few good bats, some question marks and perhaps another signing or two to come. Another proven bat and a bullpen arm would make a big difference. Sound familiar?

The Marlins
The Mets held their own against the pesky Miami Marlins last year, winning 11 of their 19 meetings. The Marlins finished a disappointing 71-91 season, largely due to an early injury to their ace pitcher Jose Fernandez and a late injury to their slugger Giancarlo Stanton. Both will be back at full strength in 2016 and that is enough to make them a solid team. Stanton is one man wrecking crew projected for a 7 WAR season and Fernandez, when healthy, is every bit as good as our Matt Harvey or Jacob deGrom.

The rest of the lineup includes a mix of exciting young players like Marcel Ozuna, Adeiny Hechevaria, J.T. Realmuto and Christian Yelich, the speedy and resurgent Dee Gordon, and the solid veteran Martin Prado. Ichiro Suzuki will again serve as the valuable 4th outfielder in hopes of reaching 3,000 hits to cap off his storied career.

The Marlins pitching staff saw some turnover from mid-season and off-season trades and free agent departures. Gone are Matt Latos, Henderson Alvarez and closer Steve Cishek. The rotation will be led by Fernandez and followed by Jarred Cosart, Tom Koehler and whomever emerges from among about five prospects and journeymen. The bullpen is a work in progress.  The Marlins don’t look like playoff contenders, but with two stars and a history of giving the Mets fits, we need to take them seriously.

                                                                                         

The Braves
The Braves are something of an enigma. They’ve been in clear rebuilding mode and preparing for their new stadium in 2017, so trading off some veteran pieces certainly made sense. But then, they went and traded away Andrelton Simmons, a once in a generation shortstop who was young and under a reasonable contract, and infuriated their fan base. They did get some solid prospects and the veteran shortstop Erik Aybar in return, but the move had a lot of people, including this blogger, shaking their heads. The trade of Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks for centerfielder Ender Inciarte and top shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson and pitching prospect Gabe Speier. This may soon go down as the biggest heist since Sandy Alderson’s knuckle ball fleece of the Blue Jays.

Over the past year or so, the Braves have similarly traded away most of the veteran players on their roster. It wasn’t that long ago that they boasted the Up, Up and a Hey outfield along with all-star closer Craig Kimbrel and some pretty good players like Ervin Santana, Evan Gattis, Kris Medlan and Alex Wood, among many others. Presently, they are stuck with hasbeens Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, but they could be had for a hotdog and a small soda should any rival GM show interest. After so much turnover, it’s hard to recognize this team. But amid all the fresh faces are still right fielder Nick Markakis, catcher AJ Pierzynski, pitcher Julio Tehran and perennial Mets killer Freddie Freeman. This doesn’t look like more than a 70-win team for 2016, but don’t expect them to roll over for the Mets.

 

The Phillies
Over the past two seasons the Mets have beaten the snot out of the Phillies, going 26-11. The team that stubbornly tried to stretch out its glory years is finally accepting that it has to rebuild. Over the course of the past year and a half the team has replaced the veterans Cole Hamels, Ben Revere, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, Marlon Byrd and Antonio Bastardo with prospects in hopes of slowly building another winner from within. The lone hold-overs from the salad days are Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz, both half the players they used to be but with every bit the salary of their former selves. Former GM Ruben Amaro has been replaced by the younger and more analytical Matt Klentak as GM. Klentak will clearly have more of an eye on the future than the past.

The Phillies are loaded with young talent, much of it still in the minors, but a few have been making a name for themselves, like third baseman Mikael Franco. While an impressive list of top prospects like shortstop JP Crawford, outfielder Nick Williams and pitchers Mark Appel and Jake Thompson work their way through the system, replacement level players like Freddy Galvis and Peter Bourjous will help hold down the fort. The pitching staff currently includes the promising Jerad Eickoff, solid veterans Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton and a spring training competition to round out the back end.  The bullpen is a hodgepodge of kids and journeymen that will likely get batted around like a tetherball at Citizens Bank Park this season. The Mets should again have no trouble manhandling this rebuilding team this year.

Winning the division will again be necessary for the Mets to return to the playoffs. With the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates in the Central and the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks in the West, there will likely be four good teams fighting for the two wildcard spots. Going 47-29 in our division again, or at least close to it, would certainly put us in the right position.

In summary, can the Mets repeat their in division success in 2016?  This writer says yes, but with a bit less conviction than some of his contemporaries.