It was a weird year for Lucas Duda in 2015. Everyone wondered if he could duplicate the power he showed in 2014 and there were also concerns about his ability to hit lefties. So, Duda went out and again put up strong power numbers with a team-leading 27 homers. And he also hit lefties to the tune of a .285/.333/.545 mark. So, everyone considers Duda and the 1B position to be set, right?
No, numerous fans still have their beefs. It seems people just aren’t happy unless they’re complaining about Duda over some thing or other. At various points we’ve heard how he’s too passive, how he’s not a good fielder, he only homers when the bases are empty and how he can’t hit southpaws. Now the complaint is he’s too streaky. Just makes you wonder what people will complain about with him next.
While the people who are never happy are holding caucuses right now to determine what to complain about next, some people are floating an old idea – that he needs to be platooned. And their answer is to use either Wilmer Flores or one of the team’s catchers at the spot. Anyone who thinks Duda is streaky shouldn’t be bringing up Flores’ name. And the idea that the club should bench Duda to find playing time for Kevin Plawecki and his .576 OPS seems less than ideal.
Anyway, here are our individual forecasts for Duda:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | FB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Barbieri | 516 | .232 | .339 | .425 | 21 | 64 | 44.5 |
| Scott Ferguson | 575 | .250 | .350 | .495 | 30 | 95 | 50.0 |
| Charlie Hangley | 473 | .236 | .343 | .480 | 22 | 81 | 45.3 |
| Brian Joura | 590 | .245 | .355 | .495 | 32 | 96 | 50.3 |
| Mike Kohler | 550 | .245 | .345 | .450 | 28 | 70 | 48.5 |
| Matt Netter | 550 | .264 | .351 | .490 | 33 | 101 | 49.0 |
| Jim O’Malley | 606 | .255 | .353 | .500 | 32 | 95 | 51.0 |
| Larry Smith | 460 | .249 | .350 | .470 | 23 | 71 | 49.9 |
| Chris Walendin | 600 | .258 | .355 | .500 | 29 | 81 | 49.9 |
Only two people have Duda cracking 600 PA. Last year he had 534 in 135 games, as he spent time on the DL. Charlie Hangley and Larry Smith both see him failing to reach 500 PA. However, what we all want to see from Duda are homers. Last year Duda established a career-high with a 50.6 fly ball rate. The more flies you hit, the more homers are a possibility. In 2012, Duda hit grounders around 35 percent of the time and flies about 42 percent. Last year it was 27 and 51, respectively. Joe Bariberi thinks he’ll fall off to a 44.5 rate and Charlie at just over 45. The rest of us think he’ll be in the neighborhood of where he was last year.
Here’s how we think he’ll do overall in 2016:
It seems most of us would be happy to see 28 HR and a .241 ISO from Duda this year. Now let’s see if this is wildly optimistic. Here’s what the main projection systems see from Duda in 2016:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 537 | .245 | .344 | .466 | 25 | 69 |
| Mets360 | 547 | .249 | .350 | .490 | 28 | 84 |
| Steamer | 546 | .238 | .340 | .435 | 23 | 70 |
| ZiPs | 542 | .249 | .349 | .490 | 28 | 86 |
Ours is almost an exact replica of the ZiPS forecast, so we may be optimistic but we’re not alone. Meanwhile, Steamer and Marcel are more bearish in the area of slugging. All four forecasts are generally close in five of the six categories. But Steamer sees a .435 SLG compared to the .490 mark of us and ZiPS. That’s a pretty substantial difference. Let’s see if Duda can continue his fly ball and home run hitting ways in 2016.
I’m not hearing “platoon” regarding Duda. He will probably play 145-150 games if healthy. Flores AB’s versus Lefty’s carriied a 955 OPS in 100 ab’s versus Duda’s 878 in 121…. so Flores becomes a very good “rest Day” option for 10-20 games at 1b—and that puts a dangerous LH pinch hitter on the bench in those games.
Count me in the beefs camp. On a team poised to make their first serious full run at a title in a decade, we’re going with a first baseman who hits three home runs in a game and strikes out twice a night for the next week? I thought I was a little crazy projecting such high HR totals and low slugging numbers, but I’m glad to see two of the models agree with my line of thought.
The “streaky” complaint is the one that always makes me roll my eyes. It’s such a common complaint, yet it’s basically true of every player in baseball. It’s just the basic reality of mathematics. Averages are based on 1,000 ABs. Any time you dice up a small subset of that you are going to find a so-called “streaky player.” In addition, it’s also the nature of the game itself, the razor-thin margins between success and failure and the role of “luck” in baseball’s outcomes.
Murphy was a streaky hitter — he’d get hot, he’d get cold — and yet every year he’d put up nearly identical numbers. And for all Duda’s hot and cold streaks, the prediction here at 360 is that he’ll essentially duplicate last year’s numbers. He’s actually been a pretty consistent player, though I guess all of us wish he could raise it up just one level higher, because the potential to do so is obviously there.
Off-Topic: I think the new, confident, at-ease-with-himself version of Terry Collins — a temporary media darling — is going to be tough for me to take.
I can deal with him as a manager. But listening to him talk? I’m going to need to avoid that. I don’t really want to glimpse into the abyss of that mind.