Chris Mitchell on Dilson Herrera

Herrera doesn’t look the part of a future All-Star. He’s listed at just 5-foot-10 (which means he’s probably even shorter than that), and by most accounts, doesn’t have the defensive chops to play shortstop. He also lacks the loud physical tools of a Bryant or Correa. Heading into the season, erstwhile lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel rated all of Herrera’s tools very close to average. Herrera’s hit tool received the best FV with 55 on the 20-80 scale, while he projected his game power and arm to remain below-average (45). Guys with merely average tools don’t generally populate prospect lists.

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With last year’s showing, Herrera proved he’s too good for the Triple-A level. All indications are that he’s ready for the show. Steamer and ZiPS both peg him for a 98 wRC+ this year, while the ever optimistic fans call for a 116 mark. League-average offense from a second baseman? That’s pretty darn valuable. However, the Mets don’t seem particularly eager to give their potentially valuable second baseman a shot.

Source: Chris Mitchell, FanGraphs

Hey, it could have been worse. They could have signed Ben Zobrist to a four-year deal.

11 comments for “Chris Mitchell on Dilson Herrera

  1. March 1, 2016 at 5:29 pm

    Interesting article. It’s true that they seem to have buried him, at least for 2016. Maybe they feel he needs more time. I’m good with a year of Walker and some more seasoning in AAA for Herrera. 2017 should see the departure of Walker and Tejada, which would leave room for him to compete with the likes of Flores, maybe Cabrera if he’s displaced at SS by someone like Cecchini. 2017 might be a very interesting year for the Mets in terms of MI need.

  2. Eraff
    March 1, 2016 at 5:30 pm

    967 Ops at AA as a 20YO….. 893 at AAA at 21 YO…. he has a shot at being a 10 year starter…maybe a few allstar games.

  3. James Preller
    March 2, 2016 at 7:21 am

    I think team is in better shape going into 2016 with Walker over Herrera.

    Isn’t that the point?

    The one-year deal makes this is a non-issue.

    Given’s Wright’s back, and the nature of injuries in general, there’s a good chance we’ll see Herrera before the season is out.

  4. LongTimeFan1
    March 2, 2016 at 7:41 am

    I have my doubts about Herrera,

    I think the Mets do too, especially defensively.

    And despite the offensive output in AA and AAA, he looks like deer in the headlights at major league level, lacking the approach of a major league hitter, and the nuances of the game.

    Could be youth and poor Mets decision-making, prematurely rushing him to the majors well before ready, and up the food chain without really developing the mental side and overall tools of a big leaguer.. I don’t think he’s mentally ready.

  5. Metsense
    March 2, 2016 at 8:39 am

    Trading for Walker should not be a reflection on Herrera’s ability. Walker was obtained so that the Mets might be able to get another draft pick in 2017 when they offer him a qualifying offer. Niese would not be able to do that. It was essentially a two for 1 trade.
    Herrera is still young. This reminds me of the banner day banner “Is Ed Kranepool over the hill?” Dilson is not washed up !

    • March 2, 2016 at 9:35 am

      Walker has an established level of offense and is not at the point where we would worry about him falling off a cliff. As long as money wasn’t a big concern, there’s no big issue with him specifically for 2016.

      But I hope the possibility of draft pick compensation wasn’t a major reason for acquiring him. If you were a middle infielder and someone offered you the QO – wouldn’t you have to think long and hard about taking it? Both Howie Kendrick and Ian Desmond ended up signing for less money than what they turned down with the QO. If the Nationals hadn’t been spurned by every other FA they chased, would they have given Murphy the contract they did? And the AAV of Murphy’s deal is less than the QO. And as Mets fans, we all remember the Stephen Drew fiasco from a couple of years back.

      The Mets gambled and won with Murphy and the QO, helped at least a little bit by his outstanding NLDS and NLCS. Assuming Walker has a typical Walker season, and doesn’t go crazy during the playoffs, I would consider it a gamble to extend him the QO, if you weren’t completely comfortable with him returning. Again, with money seemingly not a huge issue right now, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if it played out that way. But hopefully the overall plan is more solid than that.

      Edit – changed “signing” to “acquiring”

      • DED
        March 2, 2016 at 10:25 am

        Personally I think the whole idea of a Qualifying Offer borders on the ridiculous, particularly it’s one-size-fits-all aspect. But assuming you’re going to go with that concept, having the official offer in excess of $15 million is just a bit excessive.

        Ian Desmond should have watched footage of that first series between the Nats and the Mets last year, and realized that the GM’s were going to see it too. Then, he should have realized that a portion of his “compensation” would come in the form of a draft pick to his old team; he wouldn’t get to spend that part.

        He would be a Nat today and better paid if he had.

        • March 2, 2016 at 10:34 am

          I think there’s little doubt the QO will be re-worked in the next CBA.

          With Desmond, I wonder if the die was cast when he turned down the nine-figure extension. It just seemed after that the Nationals acquired Trea Turner and moved on. From afar, it seemed that neither party wanted to continue the relationship. The Nats confidently extended the QO because they knew Desmond wanted to be elsewhere.

  6. Eraff
    March 2, 2016 at 12:47 pm

    The Mets stocked the roster with an eye on absorbing the possible loss of Wright…among other reasons.

    They may seem slightly overstocked….but you’re never really overstocked with good ball players…..and Herrerra isn’d very much harmed with a slight delay to his own plans.

    The report that Herrera has “average skills” makes me wonder if this is whisper down the lane scouting…. having seen him play, he is very evidently talented. He certainly is not yet a finished major leaguer!!!…after all…he’s had brief cameos at a very young age.

    He looks talented…he is! He’s been productive as a very young player at a very high level…. dismissing him and his possibilities is a big mistake, and a leap at an uninformed judgement.

    • Chris F
      March 2, 2016 at 4:55 pm

      unfortunately, none of the people that we got can play 3B…except Campbell. And I got news for you, if he has 300 ABs this year, this team is cooked.

  7. Eraff
    March 2, 2016 at 7:28 pm

    Flores…. Walker…Cabrera…. Tejada….. all capable of spotting ab’s and playing 3rd. If Wright goes down, Flores probably Merrits 1st shot—as is, Wright will (hopefully) play 110-120 games—and I would tremble to bet on it.

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