Recently Larry Smith listed three areas of concern for the 2016 Mets. They were: The injury bug, big-money Yoenis Cespedes and a leaky defense. Here’s what he said about the last one:
But the Mets seem to punt defense at every opportunity.
The concern here is that the up-the-middle defense may be so bad that it will cost the team enough games to drop a division winner into a wild card team. Or the D could cost the team a playoff spot altogether.
.
With Juan Lagares likely relegated to backup status, there’s not one starter on the team who is a glove-first player. To which I say, “Woo-Hoo!” Having watched too many guys like Doug Flynn or Bud Harrelson or Roy Staiger, who were wizards with the glove but as helpful with a bat in their hand as Shelley Duvall in “The Shining,” give me the hitter every time.
Of course just because you’re good with the bat in your hand doesn’t mean you have to be a zero with the glove. Ryne Sandberg won nine straight Gold Glove Awards while being a feared hitter. Meanwhile, the 2015 Mets utilized poor fielders at 2B and SS, replaced them both in the offseason and it’s a question mark if they’ve improved at all defensively at the middle infield slots.
Neil Walker has slightly better defensive numbers than Daniel Murphy. But how much of that was due to the shifting and defensive positioning of the Pirates compared to the Mets? And no one thinks Wilmer Flores is an MLB SS. But they replaced him with a guy who has a track record of being awful at the position. However slim the hope, Flores might have improved. With Asdrubal Cabrera, we’re left hoping for a single-season fluke.
But here’s the thing. Even with poor infield guys up the middle in 2015, the Mets won 90 games. We’ve been told over and over again how important it is for these guys to make plays and get two outs on double play balls. According to Andy McCarron the 2015 Mets finished 25th in double plays, which is simply not good. Yet three of the four teams who finished behind them finished over .500 and the one team that didn’t, the Rays, finished 80-82.
McCarron claimed to get his numbers from Baseball-Reference but I’m not sure what he used. FanGraphs shows team defensive double plays and the numbers are different. You would expect there to be a few more overall DPs than GDPs but FG has more than twice as many than the numbers McCarron uses. Be that as it may, the Mets finished tied for 21st in DPs. Seven of the eight teams that finished below the Mets were over .500 for the year, including five teams that made the playoffs.
If you want to have a lot of DPs, it’s more important to have a pitching staff give up a lot of hits, rather than defensive wizards in the field.
The individual defensive numbers of the 2016 Mets will likely not improve over the 2015 team. But is it possible that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts? However bad the Mets were individually last year, on a team basis they weren’t bad at all. Without a doubt, some of this is due to their pitching staff. But the staff should be even better in 2016, so it’s hard to see why we should dismiss or discount the pitchers contributing this way again.
Baseball Prospectus has a stat they call Defensive Efficiency (DE), which they describe as “the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team’s defense.” In 2015 the Rockies had the worst DE in the majors with a 0.682 mark and the best mark was the 0.721 mark of the Blue Jays. The Mets’ DE ranked eighth overall, with a 0.712 mark. BP also has a park adjusted DE and the Mets finished third in the majors in this ranking.
UZR, the defensive statistic we usually cite here, had the 2015 Mets ranked 14th overall with a 6.3 team rating. The White Sox brought up the rear with a (-39.5) team UZR. And before you say that was because of Lagares, recall that Lagares did not have anywhere near the defensive season last year that he did his first two years in the league. He finished with a 3.5 UZR. Meanwhile, for the sake of completion, DRS showed the Mets’ team defense to be below average.
But what about Cespedes? In his brief time with the Mets, Cespedes had a 3.8 UZR in LF and a (-3.2) in CF. Scaling that number to a full season, Cespedes had a (-14) UZR/150 in the position the Mets expect to play him the majority of the time in 2016. Surely, that’s a concern.
Actually, it’s not that big of one. FanGraphs has a positional adjustment of 10 runs between LF and CF. In a small sample in 2015, Cespedes had a much bigger difference, as he was an outstanding LF with a 22.2 UZR/150. His adjustment was 3.5X bigger. But there are a couple of things to keep in mind. First, it was a small sample. In the majors, Cespedes hasn’t typically been that good in LF as he was last year. For his career, he has a 13.9 UZR/150 in LF. And the other thing to keep in mind is that Cespedes hadn’t played CF at all before joining the Mets in 2015 and had played only 35 innings at the position in 2014.
So, if there’s a 10 run differential between LF and CF and Cespedes is a true talent 13.9 UZR/150 in LF, then we would expect him to be 3.9 in CF by that metric. Last year Lagares had a 4.1 UZR/150.
Of course this is speculation using averages and career norms. As Lagares himself showed us, there is a lot of volatility in year-to-year defensive numbers. Chances are it won’t be that neat and tidy. While it’s likely that Lagares would put up better numbers in 2016 than he did in 2015, the simple fact is what he did in 2015 is not up for debate. With a less than stellar defensive season from their Gold Glove CF, the Mets were middle of the pack in both DE and team UZR last year.
Cespedes doesn’t have to match what Lagares did in 2013 or 2014. Instead, he merely needs to be within shouting range of what Lagares did last year for the Mets to repeat their defensive rankings from a year ago. The Mets won 90 games with their 2015 defensive numbers. We expect both the offense and pitching to be better than a year ago, so as long as the defense doesn’t crater from what the team received in 2015, regardless of which defensive system you prefer, it’s hard to imagine it being something that could sink the season.
Great analysis, Brian. I’m not overly concerned with defense heading into the season. It’s clearly not a strong point, but as you point out just a middle of the pack defense will be just fine. Obviously defensive miscues in the WS magnified the concerns heading into the season, and the team appears to have actually taken a step back in this regard, but I think the concern might be a bit overblown at this point.
If you can bear the task Brian, I encourage you to re-watch the world series we could have won were it not for the appalling up-the-middle defense (TdA unable to throw out a single runner, Cespedes who lost game 1 on the first batter with Escobar inside the park HR, then there was Murph, and lets not forget the magic of the Wright/Duda embarrassment on the Hosmer taking of home.
I love the runs and all, but getting to the post season hinged almost exclusively on an abnormal offensive production by Cespedes in Aug/Sept and whoever took over Murph’s bat in the playoffs.
Dont worry, defense doesnt matter a lick!
You are the first one to say, even if it was in jest, that defense doesn’t matter a lick. What I said was that the defense that the Mets had during the regular season was fine and that it will be similar in 2016.
Tell you what – I’ll live with the defense that the Mets had in the World Series if you give me their normal offense, instead of one where 75% of them were at or below replacement level. Don’t tell me with a straight face that KC’s pitching was that much better than what the Mets faced in the NLDS and the NLCS. The Mets’ bats went into a slump and the entire team had a .552 OPS. Hey, it happens. They over-performed in the NLCS and under-performed in the World Series.
For whatever reason, the Mets’ offense, pitching, fielding and managing were all worse in the World Series. To put the Mets’ loss solely on the defense is not an accurate reflection of what happened. The .552 OPS and the 4.21 ERA were too much to overcome, even if they had eight Gold Glovers in the field.
Forget process and metrics for the moment. The Mets had enough runs scored in the games, and sure, we could have won with more. But the point is we had enough. Defense, even average defense, would have won the world series. But we stunk. at bright shining moments, when differences could have been made, our up the middle defense was atrocious, and yes, cost the world series.
If we have the same defense, and only a modest improvement at the plate, I can see why many prognosticators have sided with the Nats, again, and more that one have call the Marlins a sleeper team with post-season potential. Buster Olney says the Mets wont be in the post season. I dont believe in any predictions, except that plenty of baseball folk recognize the idea the Mets have some sort of mortal lock on the post season is insanity personified.
I’m sorry – when in three of the five games the Mets combined to score six runs – you should never feel that’s not enough to win a five-game series.
The Nationals were allegedly a lock to make the playoffs in 2015 and we all saw how that turned out. I’m not going to get too worked up about what national writers think. My concern is if the Mets put together a team that should challenge for 90+ wins. I think they did that. It’s not the team I would have assembled but it’s a team I feel good about for a 162-game season.
I’m with you. WIth a bad defense, you can’t win the WS. You didn’t mention the muffed pop fly by Cespedes with Matz on the mound. Crusing til then, Matz came apart. I didn’t realize Cabrera was so bad defensively. I actually think Tejada is ok. He’s got a good glove and a strong arm. Not good in the hole, but great up the middle. I hate all these sabermetrics. One good measure for 1st basemen, is assists divided by CG’s. Think about how a 1st basemen gets assists. 3 of the best ever, Keith Hernandez, Helton and Mark Grace, for their careers, 84% plus, assists/CG’s. In ’86, Keith got assists in 92% of his complete games played. Duda? 66%. Horrendous. Look at deGrom’s WS game. In the 3rd and 4th, KC got runners on 1st and 2nd in both innings with none out. In both innings, the next batter grounded to Duda, and he waddled to 1b to get 1 out. deGrom struggled in both innings, and in the 4th, KC scored 2 runs. If Keith was at 1b, both balls would have been DP’s. Our defense is poor.
There’s another area we’ve worsened. Striking out. Walker K’d 72 more times than Murph, Cabrera K’d more than 100 times, way more than both Flores and Tejada, and with Lagares on the bench, Cespedes K’s more than him. KC won by having good pitching, solid defense, team speed and low K’s. Their K rate was the lowest in baseball for 2 years running and their bb’s, lowest and 2nd lowest. So how did we try to improve the team in the off season? We did the opposite of what KC has. I think Larry Smith is right. The Nats are winning the division. Revere, Murph, Harper, Zimmerman and Rendon is potent. And they can hit 95 mph fastballs.
Cespy will be better this year in CF. More innings, more time in spring, more reps.
An athlete like that will only get better with reps. In the late innings, Lagares will probably be in CF, Cespedes moved to LF, and depending on how the lineup turns, perhaps Conforto could be moved to RF, unless Grandy is coming up in the order. Whatever the best match up is, TC will take it.
That will be the key this year. Very strategic moves with a very diversified lineup. A full year of Cespedes, Conforto, 125+ games of the Captain, more games from C Travis d’Arnaud, Matz and Wheeler every 5 days (after July) and these Mets can win 96 games. 96-66. Nice ring to it. Write it down.
The Nats will be a pest most of the year, but falter after the break, still finish 5-6 games out of the NL East.
Players over 30 don’t get better defensively. Wishful thinking, He’ll blow games, then complain he’d rather play LF. I think it was a terrible signing. Look how he spent the offseason compared to Lagares. Lagares played in the Dominican winter league, then worked out with Reyes in Freeport, and came into camp 20 lb’s lighter. And Cespedes? He bought horses, 5-6 cars, and a $7,000 pig, played golf and smoked cigarettes. And you think he’ll play CF better? NFW. And as he hit .220 his last 32 games with 2 hr’s, not sure why so many are so excited. And if you look at his post season, 12 for 54 with 17 K’s, even that is misleading. As he was 6 for 10 in the games started by Alex Wood and Kyle Hendricks, two rag arms. So, he was 6 for 44 in the other 12 games. I wouldn’t get too excited about Cespedes.. He can’t hit a 95 mph fastball.
They are complete enough to compete for another WS appearance. If they recognize and make the ordinary plays, they will be solid defensively—not spectacular.
The world series is very often about making or not making plays— great players have been on both sides of that. The Ball and a Decision are always bigger for a shaky player in a tight spot—Daniel Murphy. Bill Buckener is on the “Almost Hall Of Fame Team”— He fielded every grounder like that since he was 10—but not “That One”!
You are correct that this a better defensive team than last years that played a good but unspectular Lagares. Lagares got a wake up call and has shown up to spring training in shape. That should allow the outfield to be average in the early part of the game and become sensational with two gold glove caliber outfielders in left and center later in the game. Your previous analysis of Cabrera is alarming but he makes the routine play as good as Tejada. Walker is better defensively than Murphy. TDA had a rough post season but his regular season was adequate. The defense is better than last years 90 win team and the team is a better offensively and on the mound.
Off-Topic (mostly): I needed somewhere to go with these thoughts, so figured the comment thread at 360 was the best place.
I am highly suspicious of the fact that David Wright has not yet run the bases. I understand the official reasons, and there’s some logic to the idea that they are “not rushing it,” but still. I wonder if he’s in worse shape than they had hoped. After all, the WS ended in early November. Spring Training does have meaning, after all. Going slow is one thing, but he is not playing at all. I find it all ominous.
I don’t believe the Mets will tell us the truth on this topic, nor do I particularly blame them. A trade would indicate something, certainly. OTOH, they may be thinking that Flores is the guy at 3B. Or the guy who gets the first shot. I’ve puzzled over the $3 million deal for Tejada, except for the fact that if David can’t play, then keeping Tejada around makes some sense.
The other move could be, down the road, Walker to 3B and Herrera up, but that feels mid-season (if at all). Cabrera shifting to 3B also seems possible.
Anyway, my basic point: I don’t believe what they are telling us about Wright. Lying about injuries is a time-honored practice. I believe what I am seeing. The guy can’t get on the field. He’s been in FLA since January and he’s still trying to touch his toes. I have had a very dark take on his health since we first heard news of this injury. I feel he’s greatly diminished. My guess has been that he’ll play under 100 games at average-fair-poor quality. And now, watching from afar, I wonder if I’ve been too optimistic.
Oh, and to connect with the defense theme: DW’s defense is horribly diminished too. With Flores there, it could get scary. I think defense matters, a lot. Though I think the Mets are good enough to overcome it . . . to a degree. It’s a clear weakness, IMO. I can’t put lipstick on it.
indeed. and word out is it will be another week before he enters a game. We’ve heard the routine, which begins with whether he can crawl out of bed each day. So how we ended up with so many middle infeilders but no one to play third is a total mystery to me.
While we speak of punting defense for offense, let me remind everyone that the Mets last year were 35-44 from the period of 4/23-7/24. That isn’t a small sample, but almost 50% (79 games) of their schedule in one consecutive run of games. We all remember the reason, and I understand that defense is important, but most nights you lose because you cannot score enough not because you gave away runs – most nights. As Brian notes, the defensive efficiency quotient isn’t that big a difference here.
That .443 winning pct that I have referred to above would have been one of the 10 worst in the league. Now we can say they were depleted – and they were – but having a .662 winning percentage when they had some semblance of a MLB offense must not be overlooked.
The main difference being that defense is a lot easier to predict and be good at, presuming you have people that can play. There are far more solid defenders that cant hit well, than incredible hitters that cant field. THats why the Cubs are happy with Schwarber and feel his offense will offset the defense…despite the fact he has no aptitude to catch a ball. He is a pure killer hitter.
It wont’t be a great defense and it will cost us a few games, but a) I don’t think it will be horrible and b) it may be better than last year. Conforto is an upgrade over Cuddyer and i think the DP combo will be better just by virtue of experience.
Tex— that low point in the 2015 Mets Season can best be summed up:
“Although they couldnt Hit, They Couldn’t Field Either!!!”