Gut Reaction: Mets 6, Braves 3 (4/22/16)

The Mets overcame two lengthy delays to defeat the hated Braves, 6-3, Friday night in Atlanta.

  • Curtis Granderson provided the power, with a grand slam homer in the second and a solo shot in the fourth. After opening the year with a 1-24 stretch, Granderson now has an .803 OPS.
  • Matt Harvey pitched just long enough and just well enough to pick up the win. He had 5 Ks in 5 IP but needed 101 pitches. Harvey’s velocity was good and he got ahead of most hitters but he couldn’t put all of them away.
  • An umpire delay before the start of the second inning hurt both starting pitchers. The home plate umpire had to leave the game and it took an exceptionally long time for one of the base umpires to get the gear on to go behind the plate. The Braves’ starter gave up four runs in the top of the inning and Harvey gave up two in the bottom of the frame.
  • In the fifth, Harvey got squeezed on two pitches that led to a leadoff walk. It looked like that run was going to come around to score but a monster throw from Yoenis Cespedes resulted in an out at the plate and allowed Harvey to finish the fifth.
  • Cespedes drove in a run with a hustle double. But he had an awkward slide and re-injured the hip that he first hurt diving into the stands. He did not return after the 56-minute rain delay.
  • Jeurys Familia came on to notch his fourth save.

9 comments for “Gut Reaction: Mets 6, Braves 3 (4/22/16)

  1. James Preller
    April 23, 2016 at 11:40 am

    Here’s a stat I just found, and people need to begin talking a hard look at this.

    Wright is now striking out at a 40% rate.

    21 Ks and 53 ABs.

    If you look at the postseason: 20 Ks and 54 ABs.

    41 Ks in his last 107 ABs.

    This is a giant red flag.

    • James Preller
      April 23, 2016 at 12:14 pm

      To be fair, current stats tend to look at K-rate compared to PA, not ABs, though I think there’s value in both approaches.

      For his career, David has generally had a K-rate around 18%, twice reaching 20%.

      This year it is at 33%, including the walks.

      One reason why he walks: He fails to put the ball in play at a high frequency. Swing and miss, swing and foul ball, and a walk with two strikes. Guy is having a very hard time squaring it up. For now, the OPS is solid and other numbers are pretty good. But to me, the K-rate is a predictive number, an indicator, and it’s just a very, very bad sign.

  2. April 23, 2016 at 2:00 pm

    Wright also has 7 XBH in 53 PA.

    He’s going to K — that’s just the new reality. We can live with the K’s if he’s still able to drive the ball when he makes contact. We’re not used to seeing Wright with a low AVG but that’s what we should expect going forward. A .250/.350/.450 line would be a good year.

    If pitchers no longer fear solid contact then the walks disappear. He can’t do the WS 1 XBH in 25 PA ratio and expect to be productive.

    • James Preller
      April 23, 2016 at 3:39 pm

      All true.

      But again, my understanding of the K stat is that it is not really a big deal in and of itself. He struck out, so what. But it is a better-than-average predictive stat. In one BP chart I read, giving readers a general sense of what a K-rate means, they started at 10% and called it great, and gradually got all the way up to a 27% rate which they said was flatly awful. Wright at 33% tells me something about where he is at now, and how far and fast this decline might be headed. Most experts, for example, believe that Travis Taijeron still strikes out too much: He’s got 14 in 53 PA, slightly above 25%.

      Meanwhile, David has played 13 games into the season; the grind hasn’t even begun. I’m worried. That said, sure, if he can put up a .250/.350/.450 slash line I’d be thrilled. And surprised.

      Brian, maybe you can help me here. I tried to look up K-rates for last season in the MLB, but I could only find it from the lowest for the top 100. I wondered if anyone in baseball struck out at a rate of 30% or more. Or maybe even in baseball history.

      • April 23, 2016 at 7:20 pm

        Three players last year qualified for the batting title and had a K% over 30 –Chris Davis, Michael Taylor and Kris Bryant. This year there are 17 players on track to qualify who have that and Wright ranks 11th.

        • Name
          April 23, 2016 at 7:33 pm

          And just like with pitchers, looking at K% in isolation doesn’t offer much. A pitcher who gets 12 k/9 is nice, but not if he’s also giving up 6 bb/9.

          For hitters, there are two ways to offset high strikeout rates: Walk a lot or provide a lot of pop. Eyeballing the 2015 list, all the high strikeout guys who had good seasons either had a BB% of 10+ or an ISO of .200+ or both

          And if you check that against what Wright is doing currently, he’s at 15.9 BB% and .208 ISO, which is why he’s succeeding right now despite the strikeouts.

  3. TexasGusCC
    April 23, 2016 at 3:01 pm

    Good points James and Brian, but did DW really need to play all three games in Philly? Who are we catering to? Many players will be run into the ground real soon and if you recall, we had an article last year – and the Pirates monitor this – where fatigue and injuries go hand in hand. Teflon Terry will point to Wright saying he can play, but this team is run as a popularity contest: very clickish.

    I don’t follow any other team to know other teams’ warts, but the Mets have a way of ignoring the obvious and making similar mistakes again and again. But, he runs a great clubhouse. Whatever.

    If Flores, de Aza, and Lagares can’t get significant time against the Braves this weekend (at least 1 1/2 games each), it just shows that our manager has not changed his stripes. The obvious is set as Cespedes is out. Let’s see what Terry comes up with.

    • April 23, 2016 at 7:29 pm

      Wright sat out a game in CLV especially so he could play all 3 in Philly, where he historically hits very well.

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