An interesting point was brought up in the comments section of a recent post here at Mets360 regarding the state of the Mets’ farm system. Specifically, there was concern that the drafting aspect of the Sandy Alderson regime’s effort to rebuild the system since it took over in 2011 has been underwhelming to say the least. Since today is the final day of the 2016 amateur draft, it felt like an apt topic to discuss. It also seems to be true.
After spending years buried in the back half of organizational farm rankings, the Mets’ efforts to replenish the farm hit a high point in 2014 and 2015. The system was generally ranked in the top ten those years, getting within the top five on some lists in 2015. The graduation of prospects like Noah Syndergaard, Travis d’Arnaud, and Michael Conforto as well as the unloading of prospects like Michael Fulmer has relegated the system near or in the back half this year.
That’s the point, though, right? You hope your minor leaguers eventually become major leaguers and help the big league club out, either directly on the team or as a trade chip. The problem here is that, in this regime’s five drafts since taking over, contributions from players they drafted vice players they traded for or inherited have been minimal.
Of all the players selected in those five drafts, only ten have made a major league appearance. Of course, we need to take into account that at the very least the 2014 and 2015 draftees weren’t expected to make an impact any time soon. Taking those out of the equation leaves three draft classes with little to show, and actually removes their most impactful draft selection of Conforto in 2014.
Fulmer (who now plays for the Tigers) and Logan Verrett are the only other players drafted by this regime to make any kind of impact at the major league level. You could include Kevin Plawecki here, since he’s technically been playing at the major league level for some time, but he’s not been very good.
We obviously need to take into account that most draft picks for all teams amount to little more than organizational filler. That’s a given. We also need to acknowledge just how raw their high school first-rounders were from 2011 to 2013, so they would need more time. A counterpoint to this would be Fulmer, who was a high schooler in 2011 when they selected him and has now made eight very successful major league starts.
With all of that said, there hasn’t been much from this regime’s drafts to come out of the farm beyond Conforto. In fact, the current system is pretty much held afloat by international free agent Amed Rosario, the hope that Dominic Smith will develop in-game power, and the quirky rule that kept Steven Matz in prospect status. Beyond that there are a whole lot of questions marks and, most importantly right now, little help on the horizon for a team that desperately needs a boost from the farm.
As a supporter of this regime since its hiring, it’s a bit disheartening to see so little coming from the draft in all the years this team has been in charge. Drafts are a crapshoot, and they’ve leveraged the farm to make some notable trades, but they have little overall to show for it. Things could certainly change now that Paul DePodesta has left town, and we still have swaths of prospects with time yet to develop. Still, the farm system is now fully made up of players acquired by this regime and right now they’re getting little from it when they need it most.
I think we need a little more context here.
Essentially, you’re focusing on the drafts from 2011-2013. So let’s see how division mates have fared in this time frame.
Nats – Anthony Rendon (6th overall pick, 2011) and no one else.
Braves – Not one player on their current roster from these drafts
Phillies – Adam Morgan (3rd round, 2011), Cody Asche (4th round, 2011), Colton Murray (13th round, 2011)
Marlins – Nick Witgreen (9th round, 2012), Brian Ellington (16th round, 2012), Jose Fernandez (1st round, 2011), Adam Conley (2nd round, 2011)
The Nats had a hit on a player drafted higher than Alderson has had a chance to get. The Phillies have gotten minimal contributions from three guys and the Braves nothing. The Marlins have received virtually nothing from 2012 and 2013 but they struck gold with Jose Fernandez.
Among five teams, there are three players drafted in this period playing key roles for the teams that drafted them. Rendon’s star isn’t as bright now as it was two years ago and Conley appears to be a solid mid-rotation guy.
Maybe the NL East is the aberration. But given that they haven’t hit paydirt in these three drafts yet — and it’s too early to write the final story — the Mets aren’t being hindered right now to a great degree among their division rivals.
Didn’t the Mets take Nimmo right before the Marlins took Jose Fernandez? Ugh!
Sure, if you want to play perfect hindsight, there’s that. Then again, Mike Trout was the 25th player taken in 2009 and I bet a lot of people would like that one back, too.
I don’t recall there being any great anguish when the Mets didn’t take Fernandez. Never heard them attached to his name, either. I look at that as a win for the Marlins more so than a loss for the Mets. Just like Conforto was a win for the Mets more than a loss for the Blue Jays.
The point is identifying a potential gem among rocks.
Minaya and crew were pretty good at it.
The article is saying SA and crew haven’t been very good.
Taking Nimmo over Fernandez is an example of “not being very good” at it.
They may have switched to a “need” (an outfielder) over a pitcher, but they claim that they always choose the best available player. So obviously, they missed big on that one.
In my opinion you’re asking for a level of foresight that’s not reasonable.
I think there are plenty of areas to criticize Alderson for in his draft record. Two that jump immediately to mind are his early focus on HS players with his top pick and for going underslot early to spend more later in the draft. I’m sure others will point out additional ones.
But I don’t think that playing gotcha with the benefit of hindsight on one particular pick is very productive.
No one was singing Minaya’s praises for his draft record when he was let go. And then with additional time his drafts started looking better. I think it’s reasonable to assume that five years from now we won’t look at Alderson’s drafts the same way that we do today. The story is not close to being complete.
I think the main issue here isn’t necessarily hitting pay dirt on high-profile players. All teams fail at that more often than not. The problem is that the players listed in the article are the only ones to provide any kind of value to the major league team. The team’s current issue isn’t really the need for key pieces (though I guess that’s arguable), it’s that there’s nobody anywhere in the system that is a) ready to contribute or b) good enough to provide value at the major league level as replacements when they face injuries such as they have the last two seasons.
Instead of solid bench/role players we’ve had to watch Ty Kelly and Matt Reynolds. They’ve had to import Loney and Kelly Johnson (again!) because of a lack of quality depth being generated in the system. This is a major issue even more so for the Mets since some of their key pieces are perpetually injured.
I agree about putting things into context. How do other teams compare with their draft picks? How many first rounders have played in the majors and have a positive WAR?
2011 13th pick Nimmo 9 made it 3 have not
2011 44th pick Fullmer 12 made it 31 have not
2012 12th pick Cecchini 6 made it 5 have not
2012 35th pick Plawecki 10 made it 24 have not
2013 11th pick Smith 2 made it 8 have not
2014 10th pick Conforto 3 made it 6 have not
Most teams first round draft choices are not contributing on the major level. Nimmo is the slowest to develop but Fullmer more than made up for it in the 2011 draft. The Mets had three draft choices that are starting at the major league level. Alderson seems to be doing better than most other GM’s.
The focus on college players this year strikes me as curious.
It was an issue that used to bother us at “2 Guys,” back when we blogged. But in the reverse.
We have to recall that Sandy Alderson inherited an interesting mix of talent at the ML level when he arrived. Reyes, Dickey, Beltran, Wright, Murphy, Davis/Duda, Pagan — plus, of course, the young arms in the system.
Not a great team, but not entirely a lost cause.
Interestingly, they focus the draft on HS projects. Guys who, if they worked out, might be ready in 4-5 years. We used to think, “Hey, what about now? Why are they punting right now?”
One answer was that they weren’t actually trying to win. They intended to bottom out and receive good draft position. Which led to the next question, which was: Why not trade aggressively now? If the idea is to crater, then let’s do it right. The Cubs, the Astros, went out, lost a ton of games, and got great draft positions for several years.
In Sandy, what I think I saw, was a touch of arrogance. He and DePo felt — and this is my interpretation only — that they were smart enough to make some fringy signings, play the waiver wire, and still compete in NYC, while at the same time drafting for 4-5 years down the line. They didn’t fully realize the misery that would be seasons 2011-2014, and didn’t fully realize that they weren’t as smart as they thought they were.
Imagine if the drafted college players back then? Guys who could have contributed in 1-2 years. Maybe this team would have been a lot better, a lot faster.
For the record, I have no real insight into the specific players drafted this year, or even the merits of the current strategy. Today, there’s few (if any) live arms in the system. No help at AAA or AA in the pen. This draft seems to address that, with pitchers who can be fast-tracked. But was this a good draft or a bad draft? Only time will tell.
I do think that DePodesta was something of a fraud. A lot of hype, but where’s the beef?
I was just fine with drafting for upside and taking young guys that wouldn’t be ready for years, and I think a lot of Mets fans felt the same way. Even though they never admitted it or fully committed to it, 2011-2014 were rebuilding years without the top 5 picks. The halfhearted approach hurt the team in the long run IMO.
The irony of the lack of depth is that this team has become what it was trying to move away from under Alderson: stars and scrubs. Unfortunately, the stars aren’t quite as good as under the Minaya regime and the scrubs may be even worse.
I think there is something very interesting in your assessment Jimmy. SA and Co. still continue to believe their magic 8 ball reveals things about lower level talent that everyone else misses. Nimmo is the classic there. The flip side is Conforto, who had very high visibility and a predicted short fuse to the Bigs.This year feels the same. Listening to the reviews of the draft, the Mets were never even mentioned out loud. Watching the reviews of Dunn and Kay there were more about thier “stories” than their skill.
I don’t think this is a fair criticism of any first-round pick except Nimmo.
Cecchini was a polished HS player who was well known because of his older brother.
Smith came from California and with the reputation for being a plus defender and an above-average hitter
Conforto you already mentioned
Dunn played in one of the highest profile conferences and was slated to go #9 in BA’s last mock before the draft
Dunn’s got a great story but to imply that he doesn’t have the skills to go with it isn’t right. He throws four pitches, has hit 99 and has made great strides cutting his walk rate to 2.47 this year — can’t imagine anything else you’d want from a skill perspective.
I think it’s fair to criticize the Dunn pick because he has such a short track record as a starter. But he’s not a lower level talent without evident skills.
There was recognized talent above him. Look I dont know the people at all. In the past week I followed the big reviews by Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette and Grant Paulson. I watched the draft and I have listened to the postmortem. What is clear is that no one is giving much props to this years selections. And Im sure SA couldnt care less…Im just relaying what Ive heard.
On the flip side I dont think SA and company are so smart that they have out drafted anyone based on talent recognition.