The Mets have scored 14 runs over their last two games in wins against one of the best teams in baseball. It wasn’t some cool blip on an otherwise solid year. It was a complete (and welcome) change of character for an offense that scored just nine runs in the five games leading up to that outburst. That change of character was in the amount of runs they scored and not in how they scored them, of course.
The team pounded out five home runs in their 10-run barrage last night against the Cubs. As we all know, things quickly get ugly for the other team when the Mets are knocking them out of the park. The runs dry up when the team can’t put the ball over the wall, though.
Little has changed in the offensive profile of this team that I outlined in my article last week. The Mets have scored fewer runs than all MLB teams except the Braves and Phillies. They’re in the top ten in homers, top fifteen in walks, and top ten in strikeouts. They’re still dead last in total hits, second-to-last in singles, second-to-last in doubles, and 26th in triples.
What I didn’t mention in my piece last week was that the Mets are also second-to-last in BABIP at .277. A low BABIP could suggest simple bad luck that will eventually even out, and maybe we could expect the Mets’ BABIP to rise to somewhere near a typical league-average of around .300 as the season progresses. A little average luck would surely be a boon to this ailing offense, right?
It’s not as simple as that, however. The Mets’ line drive rate is at 21.7%, fifth in the MLB. Their ground ball rate is dead last at 39.9%. Their fly ball rate is third in the league at 38.4%. These batted ball rates start to give us a better understanding of what may be going wrong with the Mets’ offense so far this season. Generally, line drives are more likely to be hits than grounders while grounders are more likely to be hits than fly balls.
Line drives lead to hits more often than other types of batted balls, but the Mets’ average on liners is 18th in the league at .692. This could be an issue of luck, but probably is also related to something we’ll discuss shortly. The other type of batted ball that tends to lead to a higher BABIP and more hits is the ground ball. The Mets don’t hit these very often, as stated, but they also have an average on them that sits dead last in baseball at .205. Again, this screams simple bad luck, especially when you consider that the Mets are tied for first in baseball in hard hit rate at 34.6%.
What the heck is going on here? One word: shifting. At least, it’s potentially a major cause of the Mets’ offensive woes this season. Specifically, the Mets’ inability to hit against the shift could be a major reason they’ve been unsuccessful in everything but homers. Does it seem like teams shift a ton on the Mets? It should, because they do. The Mets are third in baseball in plate appearances (829) against any kind of shift. Against the shift they’re 28th in the league in average (.281), 25th in wRC+ (72), and 27th in BABIP (.278).
It shouldn’t surprise you that the two players on the Mets that have seen the most shifts, by far, are Curtis Granderson (178) and Michael Conforto (129). It also shouldn’t surprise you that they’ve both failed miserably against it with a wRC+ below 70. Lucas Duda has faced the next highest at 94 plate appearances, which is incredible considering he’s played in so fewer games. His wRC+ on the shift is a shockingly bad 39. On the bright side, Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker, and James Loney have done better against the shift, though none of them have a wRC+ at or above average against it.
For their part, the Mets don’t seem to be changing their approach against it at all. The results don’t seem to indicate it, anyway. Let’s take a quick look at the team’s batted ball profile this year in general and against the shift.
| Overall | Shift | |
|---|---|---|
| LD% | 21.7% | 21.9% |
| GB% | 39.9% | 42.4% |
| FB% | 38.4% | 35.8% |
| Pull% | 41.6% | 40.2% |
| Cent% | 34.7% | 34.4% |
| Oppo% | 23.7% | 25.5% |
They actually put the ball on the ground more when batting against the shift while, based on the directional percentages, not hitting the ball the other way.
The use of shifts has grown dramatically in baseball over the years, much to the chagrin of Keith Hernandez. The book is still out on its actual impact on hitting overall, but the evidence so far suggests it’s having at least some effect. Based on what we know and what we can see, it seems that teams are using it to great effect against the Mets. This team is going to need to work at hitting against it if they hope to stay competitive. Otherwise, we’re apt to keep watching their left-handed hitters continue grounding out to the right side and directly into it.
Baseball is actually a Game of Sequences, more than Averages.
Conforto is a great example— your 2nd year left fielder was at a 730 OPS, with some pop. That could look good and offer promise…except that he hit zilch over 100 or so recent ab’s. Compounded with “other slumps by other players”, and a AAAA assortment throughout the batting order and bench…. it adds up to Sequences that are far worse than even the frustrating Averages.
It’s hard to put together a “crooked number rally” with such a short line of hitters. A single, a Double, a walk….followed by 3 weak ab’s adds up to a decent OPS, and Zero Runs!!!
My Eye Test and the K rates tell me that this is about 3 things:
-Uncompetitive, not ready for MLB bats
-Contact Rate
-Situation approach…lack of…lack of 2 strike approach
Not to pick on Conforto—he will be back
I had to force myself to read your entire post. That is because your first line contained something I have said so many times, it was so very gratifying to see someone else state it. It is actually rather profound, to the extent that something having to do with a spectator sport can be profound.
Sequences; scoring happens, or rather has to happen within the context of three out units. A “balanced” lineup is not nearly as important as having most of your offensive weapons bunched, so that they can benefit from each other’s contribution. And so forth.
DED, I’m going to take your second paragraph, blow it up to 24″ X 36″, frame it, and send it to Collins for his office wall.
Wait, Gus. You mean the second baseman isn’t supposed to bat second???? 🙂
“Sequencing” appears to be an emerging topic with regard to baseball. It’ll be interesting to see the writing that comes up about it.
Does that seem like a lot of PAs for Granderson and Conforto on the shift?
Craziness: Granderson has 20 PAs this year without a shift. 20! Conforto has 17!
It would not be an issue if both Granderson and Conforto learned how to bunt. They are being given an easy hit and should take it. How long do you think it would take other teams before they stop using the shift if they started going 4 for 4?
It’s too late for Curtis to reinvent himself into a more complete hitter. But for Conforto, there’s still hope. I believed when he came up that he was more capable of using the whole field, maybe that was a mirage, because he regressed into becoming an easily-defensible pull hitter. I don’t think the bunt is the answer. But learning how to go the other way is part of the solution.
I will always remember Ralph Kiner’s complaint about Jay Payton: “He only has one swing.”
Hopefully today’s shifts will force young players into becoming better, smarter, more complete hitters.
The “Only One Swing” thing is pretty much universal in MLB… It’s a philosophy based on a hitter maximizing impact versus any recognition of situation. Nobody employs a contact approach, whether it’s 2 strikes or the game situation dictates “Contact” versus “Driving the Ball”.
It’s an argument that is interesting on Paper…when we discuss more sophiticated “averages”….. Situation and Sequence of events are unrecognized throughout the presently adopted offensive approach. Btw…it makes “shifts” very effective!!!
Loney might be learning more than one swing. Nimmo needs to. Murphy did.
Interesting, to me, that those are examples of contact “go-with-the-pitch” guys who later add the “pull for power” approach.
It may be harder to teach the power guy to go the other way, emphasizing contact.
2-0….looking for a Pitch to “Drive” has always been tied to a good approach. The modern way is to look to Drive an 0-2 Pitch as well. Junk, In my opinion.
Rob, one major characteristic of most homeruns is there a pulled. Therefore, since the Mets believe so strongly in the homerun they are susceptible to everything being pulled. Hence, expecting the ball to be pulled is a greater expectation for the Mets then any other team. So with homeruns being difficult to hit, that’s why the shifts work so well against the Mets.
Again, just abandon the swing from the heels mentality, look to make solid contact, homeruns will be there but the base hits will be so markedly increased.
Conforto has great power to left field. The youngster must keep his approach and teams won’t be able to shift him. When he catches Collinsitis, he keeps swinging from his heels and failing
^ +1
Additionally, HR (even with Ks) = $$$$$
singles = Night manager, Dairy Queen
++1
Awesome Chris!
Perfect analysis!
Right you are, Gus. In fact, the FiveThirtyEight article I linked to in the article specifically states: “Shifted hitters tend overwhelmingly to be left-handed power bats…”
The Mets have been trying to build their team (outside of pitching) on left-handed (mostly) bats. So I guess we shouldn’t be so surprised with this situation. Still, they’re going to need to figure out a way to beat the shift or they’re just going to keep running into this problem. I’m not sure if it’s the approach they’re teaching or the fact that the hitters themselves simply do not have the ability to do it, but I’m thinking it’s a little of both.
Bring up Backman after the All-Star game.
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2016/07/has-kevin-long-unlocked-james-loneys-power.html/
Interesting stuff, like always, Rob.
Some things that you didn’t specifically say that I think are worth mentioning:
The difference between the AVG on grounders and flies is nowhere near the difference between grounders and line drives. According to Baseball-Reference, here are the NL rates this year:
FB – .172
GB – .240
LD – .652
The Mets are only hitting .216 on GB but they have, by far, the fewest GB of anyone in the league. Even if they didn’t, 24 points below average is not a huge issue.
Where are you getting the shift data from?
Thanks, Brian!
FanGraphs has the shift data as a split option here
It’s a new addition as of April this year it looks like.
Thanks for the link!
One more:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mets-hitters-couldnt-be-less-clutch/
Great analysis. Imagine if there were shifts when Brian Schneider was here? I swear that guy grounded to the second baseman 9 out of 10 at bats.