With their win Friday night, the Mets move to 51-44, which is five games behind the Nationals in the NL East and a half game behind in the race for the last Wild Card slot. Yet somehow we’ve heard fans mention that this isn’t shaping up to be the Mets’ year and that they should be sellers at the trade deadline. The logic there being that if the team can trade some pieces now for help in the next two years, that it will be more likely to result in playoff spot(s) than if they stood still or were buyers for this season.
It’s reminiscent of the 1997 White Sox and the “White Flag” deals the club made. That team was led by future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas, who wound up winning the batting title that year. It had a strong supporting cast on offense and solid pitching. But at the end of July, GM Ron Schueler decided that they were not going to make the playoffs and he traded four players, including three pitchers, for prospects. The club was only three games out when the deals were made and the reaction in Chicago and around MLB was, “Why?”
Relievers Keith Foulke and Bob Howry, acquired in the White Flag deals, played roles on the 2000 White Sox, who won 95 games and made the playoffs. But the ’97, ’98 and ’99 Sox all finished under .500, as Chicago wasted three years of Thomas’ prime. And the 2000 club lost the Division Series and the club did not return to the playoffs until 2005, when neither Foulke nor Howry were still on the club.
Did the White Sox make the right call? There’s no guarantee that they would have made the playoffs in 1997 if they had kept their roster intact or if they supplemented it. But the prospects they received in return for a shot at the current season led to just one playoff appearance in eight years. It just goes to show the fragile nature of clubs in playoff contention.
We get spoiled with teams like the Cardinals and Dodgers, clubs where a two-year span without making the playoffs is considered a drought. The goal is to become like those teams yet the vast majority of clubs fall short.
The 2016 Mets are two games ahead of where the Mets were after 95 games played last year. That’s both good and bad. It’s always good to be ahead of the pace of a team that won 90 games. However, recall that the 2015 Mets went 30-11 from August 1 through September 14. If this year’s team wants to finish where the 2015 club did, you’d figure they would need to be in better shape now because they’re unlikely to match a .732 winning percentage over 41 games.
The 2015 club went on that torrid pace in no small part because of deals to bring in Yoenis Cespedes, as well as two key relievers and two solid bench players. Yet the third week of July, not many people were overjoyed with the prospects of the 2015 club. Let’s pull some quotes from the Gut Reactions in this time frame:
July 20
“We didn’t even have hope.”
“I have zero faith in Nero.”
“It feels pretty hopeless.”
“All over the field, this team is incapable.”
July 22
“Look this team is not that good.”
July 23
“An utter disgrace.”
“What I see is abject failure.”
“Clearly the offense is completely impotent.”
“Consultation with my Magic 8 Ball this morning yielded the word ‘Sell.’”
Fortunately, the team didn’t sell. Instead it picked up some pieces, got guys back from the DL and ended up in the World Series. Certainly, one can argue that lightning won’t strike twice. It’s also been suggested that if the club makes Amed Rosario untouchable that there’s nothing left with which to buy. That seems like an extremely pessimistic view, especially given that we’ve already traded a minor league guy with a 5.7 BB/9 for a guy who’s been a productive member of our bench in Kelly Johnson.
The Mets have two more games left against the Marlins and three against the Cardinals in their next five. That concludes a stretch where 23 of the 26 games they played were against teams above .500 for the year. The Mets have gone 11-10 so far in this span, one that easily could have buried them given their well-documented issues.
In August and September, the Mets have a very favorable closing schedule. They have a tough 10-game road trip, with stops in Arizona, San Francisco (four games) and St. Louis. They have home and away series against the Nationals. But they have 10 home games against the bottom three teams in the NL West, three games against both the Reds and Twins, 10 games against the Phillies, six against the Braves and six more against a Marlins team that they’ve beaten six of the last eight times they’ve played.
And if it comes down to a last-minute run, the Mets play 13 of their final 16 games against teams below .500 and the three that are against a winning club are against the Marlins. No doubt some of you are thinking that the Mets don’t play well against poor clubs. That may or may not be true. But if push came to shove, would you rather play the Nationals or the Phillies with the season on the line?
Assuming they don’t go 0-5 in the conclusion to this tough stretch, the Mets are in a decent position to make the playoffs. The bottom line is that it’s hard for me to recommend being sellers when a playoff berth is within reach. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to add a piece as dynamic as Cespedes this time around. The good news is that they really don’t have to. A righty OF bat would be nice and we shouldn’t turn up our nose at a solid relief option.
To me, the big question isn’t buy or sell. Instead, the main decision Sandy Alderson should be wrestling with is if he wants to trade for a starting pitcher, which would allow him to move either Bartolo Colon or Logan Verrett to the pen. In his last three starts against teams above .500, Colon has allowed 14 ER in 16 IP.
Should Alderson be willing to part with Dominic Smith, a 21 year old former first round pick in Double-A, who in his last 40 games is slashing .331/.401/.559? He should be able to headline a deal for a Jose Quintana type. Quintana falls under the radar, due to his more celebrated teammate Chris Sale and his so-so W-L marks. But the 27 year old has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.132 WHIP pitching in the DH league and would be a strong acquisition.
The White Sox, who were leading the division as late as May 27, have fallen on hard times and are now under .500 and in fourth place in the AL West, 7.5 games outside of the final Wild Card spot. That’s a team that should be sellers, not the Mets.
Thank you, Brian.
Reading through comments lately I’ve been discouraged by the Mets fan base. I thought Sandy (and to a small degree TC) earned our trust last year.
Like you said, a RH OF bat and another reliever would go a long way for this team.
Half game out of a playoff spot and people are advocating to sell?! Think about where this team was just two years ago! What a ridiculous notion.
So much for Bastardo being a setup guy. But as much as another arm would help, it isn’t the problem.
The Mets are way too reliant on home runs. They need to balance out that offense.
T5here is nobody on the Mets having a career year. They are not hitting with runners in scoring position. The catcher is underachieving and the second baseman is in a slump. They are only 1/2 game out of a playoff spot!
The remaining schedule is favorable and there are 67 games left. Duda and Wheeler are on the horizon. Maybe someone has a strong second half. Maybe they start hitting with RISP. There is no reason to sell.
“A righty OF bat would be nice and we shouldn’t turn up our nose at a solid relief option” is a solid starting point.The sugestion of obtaining a front line pitcher should be a strong consideration. After all, you never have enough pitching.
Give Flores a shot. What does the guy have to do to get PT? Collins doesn’t have a clue
Flores vs RHP has a .666 OPS in 120+ AB. In 54 AB he his mashing LHP with a 1.0+ OPS. Collins is playing him correctly. Flores has improved offensively and has a much better eye for the strike zone. Nice job but still a platoon player.
Sell Sell Sell
We cannot look at the Mets in isolation as if some record we have projects to the plyaoffs. Right now, the trends on the rotation are all in retreat, except deGrom and Noah. How will we fill if Matz’ bone spur does real damage? We have to look at the likelihood of who we need to climb over to be in this. I dont think this team has the moxie to overtake the Dodgers or the Cardinals. Id be happy to be wrong, and hope I am. We are looking at 84ish wins. Remember Noah, he with the dead arm from exhaustion? Whats makes us think the season going longer will help him improve? Matz pitched 141 innings last year, and 140 the year before. He’s not going to go to 200 innings. Colon is in retreat. Verrett is nothing but a 5/6 guy. So I cant see the grind through Sept being particuarly great. We have no reason to believe the black plague of hitting will change, since its been ages, and we have no personnel changes coming.
Is it worth potentially blowing out Matz and Syndergaard for the hope of a game 163? Anyway, maybe a miracle is in the works, I just hope we dont destroy the future for a mirage.
Silly.
Imperfect teams make the playoffs, get hot, make memories.
Bone spurs are painful when that chip floats into the wrong space, otherwise: not so bad. Pitchers work through all sorts of discomforts. It’s how the game is played.
Waving a white flag at this point would be pathetic, a disgrace.
We did that last year, which is different than this year.
I believe you are wrong. I would love to see a much better prepared team for 2017, when we still will have to fend off the Marlins, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants…not just throw salt over the shoulder, spin twice, and pray for all the miracles to align.
Chris, I understand your point about the reality of the situation. But, when you give up you accept losing. You will lose an opportunity because next year Cespedes may well decide to go play with a team that’s more committed. While the Mets are a medical mess, who’s to say the Nationals won’t have any pitfalls at all? Why give up?
In the playoffs, deGrom, Thor and Matz is a good start. If the Loney acquisition can light a fire under Duda, that would be great. Also, Walker is overdue to break out. And wouldn’t it be great if the Nationals tanked at the end and the Mets overcame them like some other end-season miracles? The Nats would then get blown up!
My point is that there are enough positive variables to make it worth going after. It’s just like stocks: You don’t lose money until you sell. Keeping the hope is better than just accumulating prospects, besides Collins will bench them.
The difference in my mind is objectivity of seeing things and subjectivity of fandom. I love this team and want them to go do something serious, like trade talent for a real third baseman or lead-off hitter or a catcher. Hell, Id love it if we were in on making Betances our 7th inning guy. Then you have my attention, but going after some 1.5 WHIP reliever or innings eater like another Verrett is not solving this teams issues. So the fan in me never stops dreaming, but the objective reality person says the odds are against magic happening. No one mentions that Matz will never be allowed to 200 IP. 60 over last season would be a gross mishandling of him. Syndergaards previous high is 150 IP. I dont run them into the ground for a dream.
The buy or sell decision is an interesting one but I would hope that Alderson would be opportunistic. If there is a decent bat or arm available for a reasonable price then he should buy. If OTOH someone is willing to seemingly overpay for Neil Walker, Wilmer Flores, or James Loney then he should do that. The overall talent level of the team needs to be lifted and the club has to go from a pitching/HR team into one that can play better fundamental ball, be younger, and more athletic.
Why not buy and sell? The Dodgers did this two years ago and many teams retool during the year. At this point, the Mets have Conforto and Granderson but only one can play. With Granny going on 36, who’s the future? Trade Granny for an arm. Several teams can use a hitter and will give a pitcher. Those teams include Cleveland and their stable of pitchers. Granny is home runs and not much else: no average, meh defense (his ratings are down for the first time ever and his circular route cost the Mets two runs tonight when the score was 3-2) and plenty of Ks. We were all shocked by last year’s production, so let’s not act like he’s found the fountain of youth.
Further, if Niese can be had for nothing, I’d take a shot. All his numbers are in line with previous numbers except the home runs. We got Loney for nothing; Reyes for nothing; let’s go to the well one more time. Might Pittsburgh want Bastardo back for Jon Niese?
Last year, Met fans mocked the name Jean Segura and possible Mets interest. But, he’s doing a fine job in Arizona. The Mets need to get good MLB players and stop looking to hit home runs on some of these deals.
Its a great time of year….what do we do? What do the Nats do? I don’t think anyone will want Bastardo at this point. Maybe trade Walker but then we lose a draft pick which is part of the longterm strategy. Trade Granderson? I don’t know if that works because of the impact on team chemistry. The talk about obtaining Lucroy has died down, but I still like that move.
If we knew for sure Cespedes was coming back next year we’d have an outfielder to spare.
We may not have any hot propsects to dangle but we have some decent players to spare. Outside of the five stud pitchers, Familia, Conforto, Lagares and Rosario there’s not a guy I wouldnt move for the right deal.