Scratch LogoI’m tired of talking about the Mets’ hitting, particularly with runners in scoring position. You’re tired of reading about it. This is where we are, though. Their RISP impotence is no longer some weird quirk in the stat line that the team should just work on improving. It’s essentially a full-blown crisis. Don’t believe me? Take a gander at this Terry Collins quote, courtesy of ESPN:

“We’re going through a rough time right now. We haven’t hit with runners in scoring position. Everybody knows it. We’ve got to quit rubbing it in our faces every day…We’re not dead. We’re still in the hunt. …I’m a little tired of seeing long faces. We need to lighten it up, have some fun and get back to the way we can play the game.”

We’re well beyond just fans and the media harping on what they deem to be the team’s failures. This has seeped into the clubhouse. Based on his comments, it’s clear that Collins believes the players are letting the negativity get to them and it’s affecting their performance. That’s not something we want to hear as fans, but we also need to remember that this team is made up of players that are humans first. Humans that have been bad at hitting in general, not just with runners in scoring position, but human beings nonetheless. I say this because humans can be funny in both their successes and their failures. Sometimes we just can’t explain it.

Did you know that the Mets have the lowest batting average with runners in scoring position? Sure you did. We keep telling you. Did you know that the team is also second-to-last in the MLB in plate appearances with runners in scoring position (850)? How about the fact that they’re dead last in BABIP with runners in scoring position (.244)? The former stat is easy; they’re just not very good at getting them into scoring position in the first place. The latter is more interesting and a bit frustrating. It’s frustrating because, while BABIP takes into account the talent level of the hitter, there’s also the element of luck. Does the fact that the Mets also rank dead last in overall BABIP (.278) mean that they’re just unlucky?

Line drive rate is a good way to aid us in understanding whether or not luck plays a significant role in a low BABIP or whether the hitters just aren’t very good at getting a quality swing on the ball. Line drives, after all, lead to hits more often than grounders or fly balls. The Mets are fourth in LD% (21.5%) overall, but drop to 13th with RISP (20.8%). That’s not a huge difference, really. They’re last in the MLB in overall ground ball rate, and that doesn’t really change much with RISP. In fact, with the exception a noticeable drop in their hard hit rate with RISP, it doesn’t appear as though the team is doing much differently when there’s the potential to knock in a run. That includes pulling and pushing, ground balls versus fly balls, K%, and BB%.

Beyond luck and quality of contact, defense also plays a role when considering BABIP. This obviously fluctuates from game to game, and it’s hard to try to quantify it, but we do know one thing for sure: teams shift against the Mets a lot. This, in combination with the lack of execution throughout the lineup and extended slumps, may really be all we need to know as to why the Mets are so very bad with runners in scoring position. They’re not a good offensive team to begin with, and the small samples of RISP just highlight that fact.

Still, it sure seems as though we’ve been watching a ton of hard hit balls go right to defenders. The Mets do actually lead the MLB in overall hard hit rate. While they drop all the way to 23rd in that stat with RISP, the sample on that is too small to really make much of it. Could it really just be a matter of luck with these guys? As Mets fans, we’re all familiar with how the baseball gods feel about our team, but we’re at the point where random luck is a stretch. We’re talking about averages, though, and sometimes the highs and lows aren’t evenly dispersed. All you need to do is take a quick look back the the first and second halves of 2015 to see that.

It’s been reported that the Mets’ front office believes that the lineup will eventually right the ship and the hits will eventually fall. Based on their BABIP with and without RISP as well as some of their other peripherals, you have to think that there is at least some merit to that line of thinking. However, Sandy Alderson and his team must remember that even if their luck starts to level out a bit this is still not a good lineup. Should they go all in and attempt another splashy trade with the hope that it will coincide with the team’s luck swinging the other way? Possibly, but the path to the playoffs is much harder with an upstart Marlins team and the Nationals not as willing to step to the side. It’ll be interesting to see what the team does as we approach the deadline. Well, more interesting than most of the team’s recent plate appearances, anyway.

10 comments on “Maybe the Mets really are just unlucky

  • Eraff

    I’ve decided that their stats actually demonstrate that Their individual and Collective hitting approach is a total sellout to the HR…easy pickings for quality pitchers.

    High K’s….Low Walks….Low OBP…. Lot’s of HR, but low Total Bases. Their struggles in High Leverage situations include some bad luck—-and it also includes impact from Injuries and lack of MLB Depth…. but the real cause is the Talent Base and their Approach. This is a game of successful sequences—Unless you’re just swinging for Homers.

    This group will hit somewhat better “in the clutch”, but still poorly.

  • Jimmy P

    Obviously, the RISP stats are undeniable. But how would you go about fixing it? And are teams with great RISP stats at the top of the MLB in wins (answer: no).

    I come back to batting average. The Mets are last in batting average. If I were trying to make this offense better in all categories, I’d focus on getting better overall hitters. The RISP numbers are such an outlier that I believe they’d come closer to the norm — that is, within 10 points of a team’s standard BA — over the test of time. Still, there may be a character issue here. And also, a philosophical one with “approach,” as Eraff has stated.

    I see RISP has a secondary stat that does not truly get to the heart of the problem. People say that it’s the problem with the team, as if they are putting their finger on it, but I think they’ve got it backwards. Again: You wouldn’t try to solve it by seeking guys with this years best RISP numbers. At least I don’t think you would. I’d look for hitters, period.

    Btw, yes, I did the math, looking at every team’s RISP numbers in comparison to their overall BA numbers and noting the differentials. Also, there are stats out there about most runners left in scoring position per team, per percentage. Part of the problem with the Mets is that the failure is across the board — OBP, speed, opportunity — that the RISP issue becomes more acute.

    • Chris F

      That is exactly right IMO. RISP BA stands out because now its all we hear about, but itself is only part of the picture. There is no one stop shopping metric. Looking at constellation of offensive numbers, the Mets are at/near bottom everywhere… and RISP is a consequence of that. There are good teams with low RISP (Giants are 0.008 above Braves), and bad with solid RISP BA (e.g., Cincinnati). Looking over RISP splits, beyond the shockingly bad BA, there is the fact we have 100 fewer ABs than the league average. Even batting .200 thats 20+ more runs we would have, surely a number (5 or more perhaps) would be game winners. We are witnessing systemic offensive failure.

      My concern with labeling this as “unlucky” makes it a coin flipping problem. It is not that. You have teams aggressively figuring out Mets hitters and exploiting their weaknesses from pitch offerings to defensive placements. The Mets are predictable because the weaponry they bring to battle is 1 dimensional. There is no luck in that at all. One other thing, the Mets offense stunk last year until the reinforcements came, and then on a semi-historic flip in offense went on an anomalous prodigious output. The more realistic thing is that this team is just not that good, and the offensive approach is not meeting expectations.

  • Chris F

    Maybe the Mets are just not as good as advertised. At this point, that is obviously true.

    • Name

      Or maybe the line between “good” and “great” is razor thin.

      Let’s say we were playing a game to double your money and you had a 52% chance of winning. Now let’s say i increased the percentage to 58%. Would you be jumping to play with those increased odds? Probably not. Most people would categorize both 52% and 58% as both basically still coin flips

      But those are the same percentages we deal with in baseball. 52% is 84 wins, which is solid but probably not enough for the playoffs. But if you win 58%, you’re considered a great team because you’ve won 93 games.
      A 2 week lucky or unlucky week stretch can make the difference between good and great.

      • Metsense

        Name, that is one of the best analogies that I have heard. I always believed that if you approached every 16 games (10% of the schedule) and played to a 9-7 record (that is one more won than .500) then your team would end up with 90 wins and usually make the playoffs.

      • Chris F

        Anyone that would categorize 58% as coin flipping knows little about math, even worse, that Baseball is a game of chance like a dice roll. In an election, 58% is a landslide. As you say, 10 games is the difference, but those 10 games are very difficult to win, and they have to be won at a time when other teams, better teams, are winning at a greater percentage, and so you have the proverbial going backwards despite winning. Right now the Mets have a <30% chance to see the post season, and fading rapidly.

        For the Mets to win 90 games now, the likely entry fee for a wild card, they have to peel off a 61.7 winning percentage over an extended period, which would be a pace no team in baseball currently has. They did this last season, when they improved at a time when everyone else int he division went the other way. Rather than thinking ~10% some negligible amount, it indicates that 10% is a significant difference. Like Im happy to have a 3% house mortgage and would be mortified if it were 10%.

  • Eraff

    TD, Nimmo, Plus a prospect for Lucroy????

    You never fix your Offense by adding a Catcher…He’s not Mike Piazza.

    My conclusion is that the FO has soured on d’Arnaud…worse, the Pitchers hate him too–my guess. Even Worse…they’ve concluded that Plaw is not a Prospect.

    I’d rather they fix their problems with a RH OF Bat…and some attention to their IF mix going forward.

  • Eraff

    Regardless of Whether it’s justified or Not, Collins is in danger of losing his Job. If they can’t drastically change the cast, then they need to hope that a Skipper change will jolt the team.

    It’s evident that Sandy’s Management Team has an offensive model/player profile that is out of touch with present reality.

  • Matty Mets

    Great post. Too many career 275 hitters hitting .240 and .250. That plus the injuries…

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