By most measures, Noah Syndergaard’s 2016 has been an improvement over his 2015 debut. He has a lower ERA, a FIP that’s more than a full run lower, his ERA+ is markedly better, and his strikeout rate is up a tad. In short, he’s taken the steps forward that we all hoped he would take and has built on the success of his rookie season.
He hasn’t quite been the same pitcher during the second half, though, particularly since his July 8th start against the Nationals. In case you don’t remember, that was the game he was pulled from early due to “arm fatigue.” Including that start, his last five outings have seen him struggle with high pitch counts and an inability to get deep into games. His 112-pitch, six-inning outing last night was the latest example. It’s not that there weren’t games in the first half in which his pitch count was high and he labored through less than seven innings, it’s just that he hadn’t gone through a stretch quite like this one.
It’s not like he’s been doing himself any favors, either. He walked 15 batters over his first 17 games of the season and 12 over his last five. While the walks certainly don’t help, a high number of foul balls only exacerbates things for him and he had plenty against him last night. He’s also giving up more hits this season in general, which falls in line with a noticeably higher BABIP (.282 in 2015 vs .352 in 2016). That could be luck, the defense behind him, or a combination of both. It could also just be that he’s simply been less effective when trying to put hitters away.
What’s the cause of his issues, though? Has fatigue robbed him of his velocity? Check out the table below, broken down by month for 2016, from Brooks Baseball.
We can see that the velocity is still there, so that hasn’t been an issue. While there was a slight downtick in velocity across all of his pitches in July, it doesn’t appear to be enough to explain an issue with putting hitters away. The next table, also from Brooks Baseball, breaks down his usage of each pitch.
We can see here that there was a increased reliance on his four seamer in July. That increase came at the cost of the use of all of his other pitches, most notably his sinker and change. He simply may have been just trying to blow it by hitters. That would certainly allow hitters to stay on top of it.
Of course that trend doesn’t hold for his lone August start, where he used his sinker and change more than usual yet still had trouble going deep into the game. What this may simply tell us is that hitters are adjusting to Syndergaard and he’s now having a bit of trouble adjusting back. With hitters getting used to him, he may need to rely a bit less on pure stuff and focus on “pitching” a bit more. It’s a learning experience that he’ll hopefully come out on the other side of a better pitcher.
Obviously fatigue and workload may play a hand in it as well, especially on the mental side. He’s currently at 129.1 innings, roughly 20 shy of his total of 150 in 2015 (not including the playoffs) with potentially around ten starts left. If he’s feeling the burn now, it may only get worse from here. He’ll need to be more efficient to keep himself as fresh as possible for a playoff push while at the same time going deep enough to keep the Mets’ bullpen from burning out. It’s a tall order, particularly for a young pitcher, but a task that Syndergaard simply needs to accomplish.
I’m not sure what to make of what Syndergaard’s going through right now. Could be the league has adjusted and now he needs to adjust back or it could be the bone chips. Or it could be that he’s just going through a tough group of opponents. In his last seven starts, he’s faced the Cubs twice, the Nats twice, the Cardinals, the Rockies and the Tigers.
Yeah, it’s just all kind of odd. If he didn’t have his stuff it’d be easier to understand. Maybe this is just baseball being baseball and we’ll forget this as the season goes on. Or yeah, maybe the bone chips are playing a role.
In the broacast last night, Hernandez made a few observations. He could not locate his slider so he began to effectively use his curve instead. Unfortunately the damage was already done. Keith also lamented that he did not pitch inside so the Tigers would be leaning over the plate getting a good view of the outside pitch. Rob, your articles always try to shed light on the more sabermetric reasons of Met issues and are astute and very appreciated.
Thanks, Metsense! Appreciate the kind words.
He’s shown a lot of heart, gutting through some tough starts. I’d like to see him bust that fastball inside more often. The ump in his last start wouldn’t give him the outside corner and he really couldn’t adjust. The outside corner is for Tom Glavine, not Thor.