Entering this season, we all envisioned Michael Conforto as a fixture in the lineup and a budding star who would take the baton from David Wright as our franchise hitter. As a top prospect out of Oregon State University, Conforto was a sweet swinging outfielder with a legendary work ethic. In 2014 the Mets seemed to strike gold when the consensus best hitter in the draft fell into their laps with the 10th pick of the first round.
A 21-year-old Conforto played 42 games for the low-A Brooklyn Cyclones and slashed .331/.403./.448. This got the organization excited about his potential and plugged him in at high-A St. Lucie to start the 2015 season. The lefty didn’t disappoint, slashing .297/.372/.482 in 46 games before a promotion to AA Binghamton, where he built on his success. In 45 games at Binghamton, Conforto slashed .312/.396/.503. This seemed to position him for another promotion to AAA Las Vegas, only the struggling big league club came calling and brought him straight up to the show.
The big promotion was a bold move by the organization, but Conforto looked like he was ready for the big leagues, slashing .270/.335/.506 over 56 games with the Mets. It’s not hard to see why the Mets’ front office and Manager Terry Collins felt comfortable putting the left fielder’s name in ink onto the season lineup. Conforto started off 2016 with a bang, having a terrific first month of the season that led to comparisons with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. But then, around May 1 his production seemed to fall off a cliff. Big league pitchers noticed a hole in Conforto’s swing and they began capitalizing on it, busting him inside with pitches he couldn’t handle. After a few months of struggling and seeing his batting average plummet, the Mets sent Conforto down to AAA to work things out.
Conforto seemed to find his swing, but still struggled when he was brought back up to the Mets in July and was demoted again. Now, he’s tearing the cover off the ball in Las Vegas, but is this for real? We need to be very sure about Conforto because he’s starting to look a bit like Greg Jefferies. For those of you too young too recall, Jefferies was a blue chip prospect with a well-documented work ethic (who could forget swinging a bat in a swimming pool?). The Mets called him up in September of 1988 at just 20 years old and, in the last month of the season, Jefferies hit .321 with sixteen extra base hits. Over the next few seasons Jefferies averaged .270 with 12 homers. Not terrible, but certainly not MVP-worthy and definitely not enough to compensate for bad defense and the fact that his teammates seemed to really not like playing with him. The Mets tried shuttling Jefferies between second, third and the outfield but he was terrible at each position. They shifted around and traded away other players to accommodate the mercurial hitter which really messed up team chemistry. The following year they traded him to Kansas City. After one more okay year there, he was traded again to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards shifted Jefferies to first base and he finally realized his hitting potential, hitting a career best .342 in 1993. Jefferies went on to have a solid if somewhat short career, hitting over .300 several more times for the Cardinals and Phillies, but his tenure with the Mets was checkered to say the least.
By all accounts, Conforto is a good guy and not a clubhouse problem. And his left field defense, while not gold glove caliber, isn’t a problem. However, given the log jam of left-handed hitting outfielders we currently have and the uncertainty around Yoenis Cespedes (the injury, the pending free agency, the aversion to playing center field), we may have to find Conforto a new position. But is it really worth it? Does it make sense to treat him like Jefferies and shift everyone else around so he can stay in left field? Do we shift him to centerfield or “get him a first baseman’s glove,” as Keith Hernandez has suggested? Or do we consider trading him?
It’s hard for Mets management to choose the right path until we answer two questions. What is Cespedes’ deal for next season? And can this kid become a really good big league hitter?
Conforto reminds of Greg Jefferies when he came up in 88. There were very high expectations for him and he never really panned out for the Mets.I still have high hopes for Conforto. Jefferies was very arrogant.
I really hope he’s not Jefferies part 2. He needs to keep getting MLB at-bats at this point. With the outfield log jam, maybe learning 1B should be his priority in Vegas because we know he can hit there.
Much depends upon Cespedes, whether he returns or not. All things being equal, I see Bruce as a better candidate for 1B than Conforto. But that still puts the Mets in the annual position of weakening the defense.
Getting the Conforto decision right is much like getting the Murphy decision right last season. You know the player best. You make an evaluation. And you hope you are right.
Personally, I still like this kid a lot. I’d rather see the organization invest ABs in him — and vs. LHP — than in Kelly and Ruggiano. I think the last call up and quick send-down was a mistake: the wrong message, and a sorry result of the Bruce acquisition.
Agreed, entirely. I never would have traded for Bruce, myself.
If one can find any comfort in a similar case: Willie McCovey won the rookie of the year award in 1959, on the strength of a phenomenal half season (I looked it up; actually he played only 52 games). Come mid-1960, he found himself taking At Bats in Tacoma. McCovey, it’s worth noting, is another player who was platooned in the early innings of his career.
It turned McCovey wasn’t a .350 hitter, but he was good enough to be a regular, eventually an elite player, a future Hall of Famer. Conforto isn’t McCovey, but he is a hitter. My idea is: stick him in left field against all pitching for the remainder of this season, let him find himself, and reconcile ourselves with the fact that we have a very good player covering that position going forward.
Then on to the next problem.
Matt,
I think you hit it on the head when you tied Cespedes into the equation.
It might not be a popular thought, but maybe the Mets are wrong in building around both Cespedes and Bruce. They, especially Cespedes, tie up a lot of money. Is there enough talent surrounding these two corner outfielders to make the team more of a pretender rather than a contender?
If the answer is no, as I suspect, perhaps they would be better off investing more playing time in Conforto, and preparing the way for Dom Smith, Amed Rosario, Matt Oberste, Gavin Cecchini, Brandon Nimmo and others. The present line-up features too many players on the wrong side of thirty.
If the Mets were down on Conforto, I think he would have been moved at the trading deadline. I don’t think it’s the end of the world if he ends up in CF in 2017.
I have to disagree there. While Conforto is an acceptable LFer he probably could be OK in RF too. After all we’ve put up with Granderson’s spaghetti arm there for three years and Conforto has a better arm than Curtis. But putting him in CF is the outfield equivalent of playing Wilmer Flores at SS. I believe you can punt on defense a bit in the corners but up the middle you need guys who can go get the ball. Conforto is not that guy.
I know my opinion here is unpopular, but at least some news reporters have picked up the scent: Cespedes, when things are not going well, is not a positive in the clubhouse. When Sandy Alderson bristled under having to go through Cespedes’ “people” to talk to his own employee, it is an issue. He will play when he says, and where he says and he will golf when he says, too.
Terry Collins rant on golf was too much “need to persuade” that left me thinking, in the very least, he has no control over Cespedes.
I like Conforto in left. I hope he is recalled soon and does what we see he can. His glove was a pleasant surprise.
I like Bruce in right. He is only 29 and hopefully will turn hot again.
I think that this team began its setting in Spring Training circus and without David Wright, we do not have a strong leadership presence on the field. He is not coming back. His life and health demand retirement.
Granderson’s age is catching up to him. I think he is a positive in the club house for the kids, but his production is not enough. It is time.
I don’t want band-aid short term solutions. We don’t need .188 De Aza taking up space and the future is not with 36 year olds. Alderson’s 6 million reasons to play him are used up.
I don’t think Wilmer Flores prospers from sporadic play and we seem to have too many to shift to first base.
Our rebuild needs rebuild.
again.
I keep waiting for Twitter to announce Terry Collins has been sacked. I’d like a manager who will stand up not only for his players, like Collins, but to his players, when necessary; unlike Collins.
We need some changes.
Peter, I actually agree with most of what you said. I am very torn on Cespedes. On the one hand, you need that dynamic middle of the order bat to make your offense go. When he’s on, he’s a catalyst. There are only so many guys like that in MLB and most are not available. I know he’s a head case and has his share of injuries and dramas and he’s expensive and forces guys out of position. What it really comes down to is this team can’t keep him and Conforto. I believe if Yo goes, then our outfield is Conforto, Lagares/Nimmo, and either Bruce or Granderson – one has to get traded. Bruce is a Bobby Bonilla/Jeff Kent/Daniel Murphy type hitter who can thrive if he’s hitting behind a star but otherwise is a streaky strikeout machine. If by some chance Yo stays, then we definitely have to trade Grandy or Bruce and probably also Conforto .
The good news is, there will be plenty for me to write about in the off season.
I love Conforto…but CF is an absolutely bad idea.
Bruce or Conforto will slot at 1st….or Bruce will be traded.
I want Cespedes Back…. I want Conforto. Trade for a CF’er. Lego and Grandy are your 4th/5th/platoon—Nimmo is in the wings…or CF as a Platoon with Lego
BTW— the Dodgers have committed to “The Pain” with Joc Pederson. I believe Conforto is a Better hitter. At some point, you need to suffer with the guy.
Sandy’s OF plan blew up early this year— deAza should have been moved…he should be cut loose now. The Upside of Conforto is part of the hope for a Playoff Run…and he needs to conquer his pain at the big league level—“Waiting” is not development. Young guys are Pretty on Tuesday, and Ugly on Thursday and Friday. Conforto needs to play—for This Year, and increasingly, for Next Year!
Matt, you’re going to like this:
http://nypost.com/2016/08/20/the-mets-conforto-granderson-double-standard-scout/
Next year, the outfielders I would like are Conforto, Nimmo, Lagares, Cespedes, and Bruce. There are 2200 plate appearances between starting, DHing in American League parks, and pinch hitting that can be cut up to keep everyone happy and rested. Conforto may need to play CF, but if he is adequate for six innings, in the seventh Lagares should be there. A real manager will figure it out.
Thanks for the link Gus. The article makes a valid point.
The 2016 Conforto, 218/297/414/711 is one of the biggest reasons that the Mets are a .500 club.
The 2016 Granderson, 224/313/427/740 is one of the biggest reasons that the Mets are a .500 club.
Both players don’t deserve to start vs LHP. $15 M makes Granderson the choice and for similar production so I can’t fault the Mets for the decision.
The Mets control a talented but flawed Conforto for a long time and they shoudn’t trade him. If he is stuck in the minors so be it. He did get his chance and he will get another chance again. The Met outfield should to be reworked this winter and Conforto should be included somewhere in the 2017 plans.
If next year’s team includes Bruce, Walker and Conforto… and it probably means Duda is Gone.
That will mean that they’ve traded Duda and Dilson for Walker and Jay. That’s 30 million of ’17 Salary versus Duda plus Dilson… 14 million?
That’s a big lockdown on money that would help throughout the roster….. and it’s a “more of the same” Offensive Approach. Biggest of All, it’s a hit against re-signing Ces at a duplicate new deal at 30 per year with options.
I’m hoping the FO is ready for an off-season shuffle…I’m also hoping they keep Conforto, and change some of the balance of the Station-Station Mix.