With the Mets’ win last night and the Giants beating the Cardinals, the Mets now stand two full games up on St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. It wasn’t too long ago that many were ready to leave them for dead in the race. You’ve all seen the numbers by now. The Mets, at one point falling well below 15% playoff odds, are now at almost 85%. It’s quite an amazing turnaround considering many were all but ready to write the season off with lackluster performance after lackluster performance. They’ve lifted themselves back into contention by patching their decimated roster together with bubble gum and prayers, but they’ve done it. Now, two important pieces are coming back to the roster at the perfect time: Juan Lagares and Lucas Duda.
Lagares was activated from the disabled list yesterday and is returning from the surgery he had on his left thumb back in August. It’s not a full recovery since he’s been unable to swing a bat. That means he’ll pretty much be a defensive replacement and pinch runner exclusively. Is that an issue? Well, he wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire when he went down. His 87 wRC+ was better than the 79 he put up in 2015 but not by much. Interestingly, he was better against righties (97 wRC+) than against lefties (76 wRC+) this year. Terry Collins liked to play him against lefties, though, numbers be damned. Still, he would have been a decent option off of the bench to pinch hit in the right situations.
His real value will come from his defense and some speed. He certainly hasn’t been the defensive whiz he was in 2014, but he was quietly better than he was in 2015. In a very small sample, his UZR/150 was trending much better than in 2015 before he went down. While he’ll be a limited asset, he’s one that could serve the Mets well heading down the stretch. Of course, if he can’t swing a bat it would be shocking to see him make a potential postseason roster.
Duda may join the team as soon as today. He last appeared in a game May 20th before going down with a stress fracture in his lower back. He hasn’t seen any kind of game action in almost four months. He’s had batting practice in Port St. Lucie, but with the various minor league seasons over he can’t participate in an actual rehab assignment. It’s probably best to temper expectations here, at least in the short term. He was having a rough year before going down, and the lack of activity for so long could make him more of a liability than an asset.
He was slashing .234/.297/.431 with a wRC+ of 94 before he went down. The power was mostly still there, but his walk rate was a good deal lower than his career norm and his OBP suffered. His sample size was even smaller than Lagares, but he was absolutely putrid against left-handed pitching to open the season. In 27 plate appearances he had a wRC+ of -29 against them. That’s a negative. He was injured, obviously, and his career numbers point to him being a better second half player so there’s hope for solid contributions eventually.
The key here is that the Mets are in the thick of the Wild Card race. They really can’t afford to have players essentially rehab at the major league level during a postseason run. Is it any worse than throwing at-bats away on James Loney, who has cooled off substantially since his hot streak? Since August 9th, the first game of that fateful Diamondbacks series, Loney has an OPS of .503. It might actually be better to let Duda work things out towards the bottom of the lineup. That’s a Collins decision, however, and really it’s anybody’s guess as to which route he’ll take.
Reinforcements are arriving for the Mets, and one of them is a vital cog in their regular lineup. It remains to be seen what kind of impact they have, but they’re coming at a time when they’ll need them most.
It’s pretty odd that a team takes two guys off the DL but kind of just gets one guy back. In Lagares you get the pinch runner and defensive sub meanwhile Duda figures only to pinch-hit and not play defense. It’s like getting two half-players.
Duda figures to be useless since he is usually a slow starter who needs a few dozen ABs just to find a groove. There won’t be enough available plate appearances for him to get to a point where he can contribute.
Juan Lagares as a defensive replacement would be a big plus during the playoff drive, much like he was in 2015. The Mets should not put him on the playoff roster if he can’t bat.
Lucas Duda should be able to contribute down the stretch as a power threat off the bench. During the next two weeks the staff can see how he is adjusting and act accordingly hopefully to the point where he gets a few starts. It would be good to see how he holds up and if he is healthy. His health is going to have a bearing on his pending arbitration . There is two weeks to decide on his ability to make the playoff roster. Although Loney has not been hitting he has been contributing (eye test) with some solid defensive plays and that should be in his favor. Now if they can get Flores, deGrom and Matz back things will be even better.
I’m curious as to some of the DL rules and why they bother waiting to activate from the DL in September.
I get why you’d wait for a guy like Duda, he’s on the 60 man DL and activating him would require someone on the 40 man to be shifted to the 60 day DL or DFAed. Most likely i see them shifting Niese to the 60 man.
But what’s the point of waiting to activate a guy like Lagares, who already counts against the 40 man? Is there a rule that if you’re on the active roster, you have to be with the team (unless you had a valid reason such as visiting a doctor)? Is it just so reporters aren’t asking unnecessary questions such as why a guy is active but not playing? Do you have to medically prove that you’re capable of saying what you’re able to do?