Back in August I wrote a piece about Noah Syndergaard as he was in the midst of a weird funk that began with his July 8th start against the Nationals. He left that game early with what the team labeled “arm fatigue” and hit a stretch where he had high pitch counts and trouble going deep into games. He had two additional similar starts after that article was posted. That string of performances, perhaps not coincidentally, lined up with the Mets’ team-wide nosedive in the standings where they bottomed out at 60-62 on August 19th after an 8-1 loss to the Giants.
On August 21st things turned around for him when he pitched eight scoreless innings in San Francisco. In his last seven starts he’s averaged over six innings per start, even if we include his clunker against Atlanta on September 19th in which he pitched just 3.2 innings. During that span he has an ERA of 2.06 while striking out 47 and giving up just two home runs. He’s still walking more than he did to start the season with 13 during this stretch, but he’s been able to limit the damage. In short, he’s been what the Mets needed him to be during their phenomenal run over the last month or so of the season. So what’s different about these last seven games when compared to his seven-game struggle (July 8th through August 16th)?
One of the main data points that jumps out when comparing the two time periods is BABIP. During his post-break swoon opponents had a BABIP of .389. In his last seven, that number has gone down to .267. We’ve only got 55 career games to go off of here, so it’s tough to pin down what his actual “norm” for BABIP is at this point. In 2015 his BABIP was .279 while in 2016 it sits at .334. We can see that when he’s at his best his BABIP sits well below the average of .300, though, so perhaps a bit of bad luck had a hand in his earlier troubles.
Hitters were also just getting better contact against him in July as his line drive percentage (LD%) spiked to 31.6% during that month. For perspective, his LD% in every other month of 2016 was 23.3% or lower. Batters clearly had the upper hand on him for some reason, and it may have had to do with an overreliance on his four-seamer, as noted in the previously cited article. The table below, courtesy of Texas Leaguer’s PITCH/FX data, shows the breakdown of his pitch usage during the two periods in question.
| FF | SI | SL | CH | CU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/8 – 8/16 | 45.4% | 14.6% | 20.9% | 8.8% | 10.3% |
| 8/19 – 9/27 | 36.2% | 24.9% | 21.8% | 12.1% | 5.0% |
The main difference that immediately jumps out here is the usage of his four-seam fastball versus his sinker. That seems to suggest that his recent success is a direct result of the use of his sinker, right? That’s not necessarily the case, though, as opponents have been teeing off on the sinker all season. According to FanGraphs, opposing batters have slashed .348/.371/.459 against it this season. It was his least effective pitch in 2015 as well. So what can we make of this? Well, it’s possible that the increase in usage of his sinker has kept batters off balance more and less zeroed in on that four-seamer. His curve and slider are clearly his out pitches, but his sinking fastball may be the equalizer that keeps hitters honest when mixed in effectively.
The Mets are positioned for consecutive postseason appearances despite all of their injuries because of the contributions of many unlikely sources. It’s been a team effort in every sense of the word, but let’s not forget that Syndergaard has led the charge as this team’s ace during this recent run of success. He’ll need to keep it up if the Mets hope to make any noise in the playoffs.
In addition to the raw percentage of the various pitches, I think it would be instructive to see the movement and location on his pitches in these two time frames.
My guess is he threw fewer of certain types of pitches either because it hurt to throw them or he had reduced confidence in his ability to deliver quality pitches with them. Or both.
I always think of the slider as the pitch that’s toughest on the arm. Injured pitchers tend to back off that pitch. Last game, Noah really had it going.
This is a good point, Brian. I do wonder if the bone chips were an issue that maybe he learned to deal with. It does look like he had more vertical movement on the slider, as well as more velocity and spin in his last seven. There also was a bit more spin on that sinker.
Outstanding article Rob. There is alot of work put into this one.
Syndergaard had his little slump in mid-year, but the first 1/3 was great and the last 1/3 was very good. Considering this young man knows he’s hurt, that’s awesome. Other pitchers let it get to them and they hurt their shoulder trying to change their mechanics. Not that I can blame them, but it shows what a strong minded individual Noah is. A keeper no matter what. The Cespedes of the starting staff.
Thanks, Gus! It’s going to be a crazy game with Thor against Bum on Wednesday. Wouldn’t have any other pitcher on the staff on the mound, honestly.
Syndergaard is the ace of the 2016 staff. I love his attitude.
Saturday’s are a treat with your in depth articles and analysis. I always learn some thing from them. Your hard work is appreciated. Thanks !
Thanks, Metsense! 🙂
Great insight, Rob. Does Thor throw a true sinker or is it just a 2 seam fastball?
On a somewhat related topic, I recently noticed that Wainwright has an unusual curveball grip. It looks like he uses three fingers. I tried this out having a catch with my son and it’s interesting because you can get a finger up against two different seems to create additional spin. You sacrifice a bit of velocity, but the ball spins and drops more vertically. Wish I knew about this back in the day.