2016 is a year where the Mets overachieved. After a painful loss to the Giants, it is time to look forward to 2017.
Injuries decimated the team in 2016. Only time will tell which players can successfully come back and make contributions to the 2017 team. The 2016 Mets relied on the long ball to score runs. They hit 218 home runs which was second in the National league, but scored 671 runs which was 11th in the league.
Let’s face it, the Mets were lucky to earn a Wild Card slot. In the off season last year, there was the temptation to trade a starting pitcher for a good hitter. With the perceived pitching depth, it could have made sense to trade for a big bat.
Let’s look at what the Cubs have done. Theo Epstein is not a magician, but he is a shrewd general manager. He removed the curse of the Bambino in Boston and he may end a 108 year drought this this year in Chicago. Epstein began building this team as soon as he arrived in Chicago. One of his first moves was to trade for Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs developed talent within the organization and when they got to the brink of being very competitive, they pulled the trigger and signed free agents including Jon Lester, Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward. Yes, Heyward struggles offensively, but he is a top defensive outfielder.
The Mets have proved that they are contender and the window for contending has a limited period of time. Most teams who would have the number of injuries that the Mets had in 2016, would have quickly fallen out of contention. That did not happen. In 2016, the Mets found additional parts that can prove to be useful in the next couple of years.
Let’s focus on the big picture, rather than attempting to project the entire 25 man roster. The Mets should take a cue from Epstein. It is time for the Mets brass to make a move. Let’s hope that they have the sense to do this, now.
Jeurys Familia had a terrific season with 51 saves. However, in 2016, his ERA raised from 1.85 to 2.55 and his WHIP increased from 1.00 to 1.21. Two years in a row, Familia hasn’t performed in big games in the post season. Is this an anomaly or a red flag? Good teams usually have outstanding bullpens. The ability to have outstanding pitching from the seventh through ninth innings is a powerful strength. The Mets have Familia and Addison Reed. The Mets first move should be to sign Aroldis Chapman. By signing Chapman, the Mets would arguably have one of the strongest bullpens in the majors.
The Mets relied on home runs to score runs. Curtis Granderson hit 30 home runs, but only drove in 59 runs. Asdrubal Cabrera hit 23 home runs, but only drove in 62 runs. Neil Walker hit 23 home runs, but only drove in 55 runs. What is the likelihood in 2017, that Granderson, Cabrera and Walker hit 76 home runs? The answer is probably very little chance.
It is imperative that the Mets resign Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes is a big bat and he appears to thrive in New York. The fans love him. But Cespedes needs protection around him.
The Mets should sign Edwin Encarnacion to play first base. That would end experiments and fill in players like James Loney. Encarnacion will be 34 for the 2017 season, but he has not hit less than 34 home runs a year in the last five years. Last year, he hit 42 home runs and drove in 127. His production would make up for any loss of production from other hitters. In hitting behind Cespedes, Encarnacion would provide the protection that Cespedes needs.
The pitching staff has the potential rotation of Now Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. Will the Mets get 30-35 starts out of each one of these pitchers? The realistic answer is no. Injuries could besiege the Mets again next year. This is where the value of Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman come in. In addition to Bartolo Colon, Lugo and Gsellman pitched the Mets to the Wild Card game. So, with Logo and Gsellman, the Mets have seven starting pitchers battling for five spots in the rotation.
By signing Chapman, Cespedes and Encarnacion, the Mets can takes steps a la Epstein to win now. In theory, it is easy to say, “let’s go out and sign everybody”, but prudent moves have to be made to make this happen.
By signing Encarnacion, the Mets can cut ties with Lucas Duda. Duda had a terrible year and is a streaky hitter. Duda earned $ 6.7 million last and would probably look for a similar payday or an increase in 2017. Neil Walker earned $ 10.5 million in 2016. Even with his injury, after hitting 23 home runs, Walker would command more in 2017. Let’s say that Walker would command $ 12 million. So, by cutting loose Duda and Walker, the Mets would save approximately $ 20 million next year, which is a good portion of the money that they would have to pay towards Encarnacion. The Red Sox will probably target Encarnacion to replace David Ortiz, so the Mets will have to pay a high price for him. Sign Encarnacion for three years at $ 63 million with an option for a fourth year.
In 2016, between salary and bonus, the Mets paid Cespedes $ 27.5 million. Sign Cespedes for four years at $ 100 million.
Now comes Chapman. Chapman is arguably the most dominant closer in the majors. He is 28 years old. Since 2012, he has saved 182 games. Over the last three seasons, his ERA has been 2.00, 1.63 and 1.55. From 2014 through 2016, he has struck out 312 batters in 168.1 innings. Chapman and Familia would be a formidable lefty righty duo. Chapman’s contract would probably be similar to the contract that Andrew Miller signed with the Yankees, four years for $ 36 million. Sign Chapman for four years at $ 40 million. So how do the Mets afford Chapman? Bartolo Colon earned $ 7.25 million in 2016. Colon led the Mets with 15 wins, but he will be 44 years old for the 2017 season. Colon has been a fantastic pitcher for the Mets over the last couple of year by defying father time, another pitching starved team will probably offer Colon a one year deal for $ 8 to $ 9 million.
Save more money by cutting Bruce loose. That saves another $ 13 million
So, without breaking the bank, the Mets 2017 starting lineup could look like this.
1. Reyes 3B
2. Cabrera SS
3. Cespedes OF
4. Encarnacion 1B
5. Granderson OF
6. D’Arnaud C
7. Conforto/Nimmo OF
8. TJ Rivera/Cecchini 2B
As the Mets watch the Cubs plow on towards the World Series, it is time to pull the trigger on deals like Epstein.
Right, sign the three top FAs out there this year! What are the chances of that happening?
Money talks, why not.
Hard to argue with the idea of picking up Encarnacion and Chapman, I just don’t see it happening. First, teams don’t do a righty/lefty platoon with their closer spot and despite Familia’s failures in the post-season, they’re still committed to him long term. The bullpen is fine.
You can probably make a better argument for Encarnacion but his age, asking price/years he’ll ask for could very well be prohibitive. One aspect of how the Cubs were built is they have a roster chock full of home grown players. The Mets have to continue to move in the direction as well. Resign Cespedes but continue to integrate Conforto, Nimmo and up and comers like Smith and Rosario. As for the OF, I think an alignment of Cespedes, Granderson/Lagares and Bruce is the way to go.
All good ideas, Mike, but you did not address Catcher.
Mets are going nowheresville with D’Araud. He cannot throw, and now he cannot hit either. Mets must find a starting caliber catcher and may have to give up a package with a young pitcher to do it.
I did not address catcher. I actually wrote another article two months ago on it is time to dump d”Arnaud. I would rather have a very good defensive catcher and game caller to manage the young pitching staff.
Cespedes will cost more than that and we’ll need to pass on Walker and Bruce just to make that happen. The payroll is going to go up quite a bit due to a lot of guys in arbitration – Harvey, Familia, Reed, d’arnaud, Flores, deGrom, Wheeler, Duda, et al.
Realistically, we hope to resign Cespedes, get our pitchers back healthy, and find a way to flip Bruce and another spare part or two for a better catcher.
Lot of folks talking about getting a top-shelf catcher, and I keep wondering: Who?
Where’s the realistic guy?
Name some names.
For my part, I am not as down on d’Arnaud as others, though I recognize that 2016 was an abysmal year for him. I think he’s much better than that. The shoulder injury did not help, and there is a long history of hitters with bad shoulders who suffered from power outages. I also think that he pairs well with Rivera.
Upgrade catcher? Sure! Now get specific.
Brian McCann can be had from the Yankees especially with the emergence of Gary Sanchez. He has 3 years left on his contract and is paid way too much money, but that is why the Yankees can trade him.
Jimmy, this is the one area I think about most on this team. It’s hard to name a successful young catcher, that we know isn’t a flash in the pan (Sanchez). Most take a while to develop. Also, TDA doesn’t have a catcher’s coach to help him with his defense, but his injuries constantly have him playing hurt. If he could just be healthy and be given some time, I believe he will be a good solid catcher. He’s confused at the plate with his stance, he has no defensive coaching, and he has fans booing him all the time. Not easy being the next Wilmer Flores.
From MMO today:
Part of his (TDA’s) offensive and throwing issues are related to mechanics. Part of them may be related to the rotator cuff strain he had in his throwing shoulder. Another factor was with d’Arnaud struggling and receiving irregular playing time. It could be any combination of the three. In any event, d’Arnaud had a poor year offensively and a poor year throwing.
However, d’Arnaud was still good behind the plate. He’s always been good at fielding a throw and getting the tag down without violating baseball’s new blocking the plate rules. He still calls a good game. He was yet again one of the best pitch framers in baseball. In fact, his teammate. Addison Reed, said of him:
“There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look. He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.” (ESPN.com)
Judging from Reed’s words, you can tell he also has the confidence of his pitching staff.
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Plus, I want to stress this: The Mets do not have a catching coach. Worse, the person responsible for catchers is a former middle infielder without Any catching experience. It is more of the stuff that makes us pull our hair out. No wonder I’m almost bald at 48, I’m a Mets fan!
Jimmy P – I know the top catchers like Posey, Molina, et al won’t be available and Weiters and Ramos will be overpriced FAs. But there are many better options than TDA. How about Derrick Norris? Stephen Vogt? I’d settle for a veteran who just plays strong defense to platoon with Rivera.
Plawecki can’t hit and TDA can’t stay off the DL. When he finally did second half he forgot how to hit.
I cling to the idea that Plawecki will eventually hit and that he’ll be a “rotational Catcher”, if not a starter. d’Arnaud seems like a Bad Catcher, to me… and I believe his hitting problems go well beyond his injury problems. Rivera performed exactly as a platoon Catcher/Defensive Caddie should.
This was considered a position of youthful depth just a year ago—catcher development is seldom all straight lines…I would not give up on this group to sell them off Cheap. You made game 163 with these guys…. nail down the rest of the squad and feed the Pitchers well this Winter.
I hold out the hope that Travis had a bad year — the shoulder injury contributed to his problems — and that he will rebound. He has always been a good hitter, not ready to believe it has suddenly stopped being the case.
In terms of the rest, I don’t have a problem with it.
He started the season batting 8th, a huge vote of no confidence, and just never got it going..
I think it’s full time DH time for Encarnacion.