First of all congratulations to the – and I can’t believe I’m saying this; I can’t believe I have the opportunity to say this – World Series Champion Chicago Cubs. Your victory was tough, hard-fought and well-deserved. Game Seven was one for the ages and you guys have a great management team, a terrific system and a bright future. Billy goats, black cats and Bartman can all stand down now. And, hey, as long as the Mets can keep taking five-of-seven and a few playoff series from you, I wish you all the best.
Amid all the blare from Chicago and Cleveland, though, some disturbing news came to the Mets’ family. Closer Jeurys Familia was arrested on a domestic violence charge on Tuesday. Familia now joins teammate Jose Reyes and World Series almost-goat Aroldis Chapman as the three MLB symbols of a terrible act and a hopefully progressive/effective program to curb it. Domestic violence is a horrible scourge. Anyone who resorts to using their fists on someone they supposedly love shows that we have not yet evolved as a species to the point we’d like to think. Strong remedies that an employer can implement will be applauded here. There can hardly be any doubt that Familia will be suspended for at least 30 games, as both Chapman and Reyes were, all deservedly so.
Couple that with growing dissatisfaction with Familia’s post-season performances among the fan base, there might be a possibility the Mets might move on from him. So who would finish games? Rumor has it that fine set-up man Jerry Blevins will seek gold and security somewhere else, so he’s likely to be out of the picture. Could someone on hand step up? Could Josh Edgin get promoted from lefty specialist to full-time closer, a year removed from Tommy John surgery? Could Josh Smoker be that guy? Or do they simply have Addison Reed close out games, as he’d done for the White Sox and Diamondbacks years ago? Or is the next closer not in the organization yet? Players can declare free agency two weeks from now. Chapman will almost certainly be on that list. Would the Mets empty the vault for him? Or would they swing a trade – as some have suggested – and possibly drain the farm for his World Series counterpart, Andrew Miller?
The off-season is exactly six hours old, there is time – way too much time, if you ask me – to figure this out, of course. That’s part of the fun of baseball: plotting out next year before your clothes are even dry of champagne. It’s a damn shame that the real world intrudes, but it ultimately must. Life isn’t always on the field.
I’d prefer an endless summer, myself.
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I think the way it works is that the Commissioner’s Office only has limited access to details of the incident until the legal portion of the incident is completed, then the Commissioner’s office can gain access to the documents. So we will need to wait to see what occurs in the court system first.
Blevins is a fine LOOGY and a positive character guy, but a setup guy he is not. If Familia isn’t a part of this team for a real stretch, they should sign another eighth inning guy with some closing experience Reed and Salas could be a good foundation, but Robles is still too raw.
We just witnessed the first WS where no starting pitcher recorded an out in the 7th inning.
Let that sink in.
Note, also, that both teams made significant deadline deals to add an ace reliever, Chapman and Miller. Those deals were critical in order for each team to reach the WS. That should be a huge takeaway for everybody.
The strength of the bullpen is of paramount importance.
Familia will be suspended. Chapman was suspended 30 games. I think that’s the ballpark number. Yes, I’d take him back.
The Mets are acting like they are willing to let Blevins walk. I don’t agree. Quality relievers are more important than ever before.
I’d make either Gsellman or Lugo a reliever this Spring Training. There are arguments on both sides. Lugo has experience in that role; Gsellman may profile as the more typical reliever, and the FB would be better in short spurts.
There’s a dichotomy in baseball today. The new conventional wisdom — repeated robotically — says that it’s stupid to overpay for relievers because they are unpredictable from year to year. That they are fungible. And there’s some truth to that, up to a point. But again, the value of a strong and deep bullpen has never been greater. The game has shifted significantly. Yes, a team can put together a pen of young, unproven relievers and succeed; but it can also blow up a season in a heartbeat. Talent wins out, always.
Two years ago, right here, I advocated that the Mets go out and sign Miller. Boy, was that ever shot down. All the conventional wisdom, everyone who drank that Kool-Aid, missed the essential point: Talent wins out. You need to trust what you see, what your scouts tell you. it’s not so much that relievers are unpredictable, it’s that the sample size is not only too small, it contains far too many variables for the statistics to be truly meaningful.
Right now, today, the Mets pen is on shaky ground. It needs to get better, always. I believed, years ago, that SA understood the economical value of building a bullpen from within the system. Finding those power arms and cultivating them for that role. Yet he really hasn’t achieved anything in that area.
I think Solas is fine, is good, is useful. I’d love another high-end arm in the mix, though I don’t see the Mets paying for LA’s or CHI’s closer. The hope is also that Robles makes progress.
I don’t have specific answers for this coming season, other than to say that the Mets need to bring in some talented arms this off-season. At least one. And if it costs money, that’s baseball in the world in which we live. Get over it.
JP I am on near lock down agreement with you. Add to that the anecdotal evidence that we regularly see our Mets heroes throw <7 IP at 100 pitches. We *need* essentially 3 closers. On a separate front, I dont believe Familia is an elite closer regardless of the saves. The WHIP is too high. Hes a good 7th or 8th. As I mentioned on some other thread least week, I would go out and get a lock down like Jansen/Miller/Chapman if you want to win. I also make catcher the next most pressing matter. Ces is gone, but his offense can be made up enough.
That or just get Ben Zobrist, who has stabbed this team in the heart with a rusty spike 3x in 12 months.
The fact that no SP in the WS got an out in 7th is more due to the Maddon’s and Francona’s paranoia and obsessive nature of a few relievers rather than the fact that the SP werent able to do it. There were multiple chances where the SP could have gone much deeper but we inexplicably saw an early hook. Guys were getting lifted when they hadn’t allowed a run and hadn’t even thrown 75 pitches
We saw the effects of that in game 7 when, because the same 2 or 3 pitchers are used every stinking night, they were completely gassed out.
It may have been a dramatic and close series, but it was terrible from a baseball standpoint because of the overuse of the same pitchers
However, i do think that Francona’s usage of Miller may finally be the start of the trend for what sabermatricians have been calling for many many years and that’s to employ your best guy in the tightest spot and not just to blindly use him in save situations.
That is a valid point. A few guys were over-used.
In regard to “inexplicable,” we are talking about two of the best managers in baseball. It can’t be that everyone is an idiot.
But it does not negate my deeper point about bullpen depth, importance, and the need for quality.
I don’t see how the just-completed World Series has anything to do with bullpen depth. If anything, both teams showed a lack of faith in their depth, asking their top two guys to go longer than normal and utilizing SP in bullpen roles.
In other words, standard bullpen deployment since at least Joe Torre and the Yankees of Mariano Rivera.
^This
For Chicago, their closer (Chapman), and primary lefty(Montgomery), combined to get 47% of all bullpen outs (37 of 78)
For Cleveland their closer (Allen), and setup(MIller), combined to get 42% of all bullpen outs (41 of 97)
If you wanted to look closer to home, last year the Mets used Familia and Reed for 40% of all bullpen outs in the WS
And those numbers would be higher if you disregard the guy that typical is used as a long reliever to eat innings when the game is already over.
But this only works in the postseason. As the Yankees showed us, having a lockdown relief corp in the regular season ranks much lower priority behind having a good SP staff and offense.
Okay, you guys are arguing against bullpen depth.
Fine, cook the books any way you want.
The Cubs starters accounted for 37 IP, and their pen went 26 IP. Chapman threw 7.2 IP.
The Indians starters went 30.2 IP, and their pen went 32.2. Miller threw 7.2.
And, yes, their ace relievers were likely overworked.
A lot of guys took the hill for both clubs.
I don’t think it’s arguing against, it’s prioritization and optimization. In a perfect world of course you’d want everything to be strong.
If you had a budget of $10 for food and it had to last you a week, would you get a 10oz of steak or 20 lb bag of rice?
Don’t get fooled by what you saw in the postseason, the regular season has always and will continue to be won with SP.
Maddon let paranoia get the best of him during the WS and Francona was working with 2 #4-type starters who were blowing well past their career highs in innings pitched.
It’s not arguing against the concept of depth being a good thing. It’s just pointing out that the reasons the Cubs and Indians made the World Series had very little to do with their bullpen depth. And whatever little it did have to do was marginalized in the Series.
In the three games that the Indians won, their non big two relievers pitched a total of two innings. One was in the 9th inning of Game 4 when they were up 7-2.
In the four games that the Cubs won, their non-Chapman, non-Montgomery relievers pitched a total of two innings. One was in the 9th inning of Game 6 when they were up 9-2.
The 6.2 innings in Game 6 that the Indians bullpen logged could have been pitched by their Double-A relievers.
It might be an improved argument to say if they had better depth, they would have been in better shape. But I’m sure if given the choice, the Tribe would have opted for a healthy Carrasco and Salazar over bullpen depth.
I’m with Brian on this. I’m happy for the Cubs, they deserve it and Madden is a great manager. However, he completely bungled his handling of the pitching the last two games and got lucky that his team carried him across the finish line.
Last year, but especially in 2015, Ron Darling and others made a point of telling us what a great individual Familia was. I heard it, recalled other such instances — Doc Gooden, of course — and waited for the explosion..
Thing is, I sort of thought he was a great guy too, so far as any of us can tell from this distance.
Where would the Mets have been without Tug and Ron and Cal and Jim Mac, in 1st championship season, 1969?
Though our starters often pitched Complete Games ( Seaver and Koosman and Gentry ), Relief Pitching has been Important for many many years!
Jeurys Familia is an excellent closer but in 2016, Addison Reed was the better pitcher. Reed had a better K/9, BB/9,LOB%,ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR. Reed had the 6th best WAR among MLB relievers, Familia was 8th. This is a great loss for the Mets but Reed, who has experience closing, is a solid replacement.
Jimmy P is correct that the game has changed in regard to relief pitching and the Mets should adjust to the trend. They should sign Blevins, who had a 11.14 K/9 and and 3.05 FIP and at least another strong reliever for the late innings. Astute comment Jimmy P, “The strength of the bullpen is of paramount importance.”
I disagree Metsense. An excellent closer gets it done without the heavy traffic. A 1.2 WHIP for a closer is not acceptable. Furthermore, he’s a big pressure head case. Reed, as you noted, ran up better numbers than Familia. We all know save number is a function of so many variables that its a bit of an albatross.
Letting Blevins walk is a bad thing. That the Mets may not have enough bucks to hold him says what? 2017 already looking grim as we already get ready to have to hear the the Cubs may never lose another game for perpetuity. gag choke slobber puke. Cleveland why have you foresaken us?????????
Familia is a terrific closer, one of the best in the game, with nasty stuff.
1) No excuse for his behavior. If he gets suspended, he deserves it. If he serves his sentence and shows remorse, he should be welcomed back to the team.
2) Familia is an awesome pitcher. There was only one Mariano Rivera and even he blew a few saves in his day.
3) This isn’t like his friend Mejia, where he could miss half or the whole season At worst, he’ll miss a third. Reed can close temporarily. Salas and Blevins, who I’d both like to see back, build out a nice back end. Robles, Edgin, Smoker, Lugo and maybe a pickup give us depth.
4) You all will never let me live down my fake deal for Andrew Miller.
Folks.
Great dialogue,I’m looking forward to much more in this hot stove season.
While the World Series managers may have been neurotic with their pitching moves, and while the sample size may be small, it is pretty clear that the importance of the bullpen in today;s game is a reality.
Specifically regarding the Mets, upgrading was a priority before Familia’s issue, and it is now a necessity. The goals are really pretty clear. Assemble the best staff of 12 possible, with no weak links, and deploy them in a way that minimizes injury risk through miss-use. Top it off by having quality arms ready at AAA if and when injuries occur.
While I would love Colon back, I’d rather invest in another high end late game arm, and look for a lower cost vet as an insurance policy if his price gets too high. I’d also like to keep Blevins but he is not worth a multi-year deal if that expenditure blocks another priority.