To the surprise of no one, Yoenis Cespedes opted out of the final two years of his contact. He left somewhere around $48 million over two years on the table. Assuming he and his agent are rational individuals, they must feel good that he will surpass that on the open market. The reaction for the Mets’ fanbase has been solidly in favor of paying him whatever it takes to keep him in Queens. But let’s not get carried away here.
Everyone has a point where it no longer makes sense to sign him. Mike Trout’s a bargain at his $20 million contract. But even Trout would be problematic if he made $40 million. So, where is the line with Cespedes? It seems extremely unlikely that Sandy Alderson will go north of $100 million in whatever contract offer he would give out. Since he’s been here, he’s only done that with David Wright and it’s possible that was mandated by ownership. Either way, it hasn’t worked out. Also, there were four free agents who signed $100 million-plus deals last year and early returns are not good on three of them.
Cespedes signed a three-year deal because of the opt-out clause. But in all likelihood he’s getting the five-year deal he couldn’t get last year. Maybe it will have an opt-out, too. But if Cespedes fell on his face in 2016, the Mets were only on the hook for two more years. If the Mets were to sign him this time around, they would be on the hook for more years in a worst-case scenario. They are already on the hook for $67 million for Wright, who’s unlikely to come close to matching the equivalent level of production. They’re not going to put themselves in a similar situation with another player.
But the good news is that they don’t have to.
Let’s look at two free agent outfielders, both of whom played last year at their age 30 season.
Player A – .280/.354/.530 133 OPS+ (-6.7 UZR), (-3 DRS)
Player B – .276/.393/.447 126 OPS+ 1.0 UZR, 1 DRS
You probably guessed Player A is Cespedes. Player B is Dexter Fowler. Cespedes has a big edge in power while Fowler has a big edge in OBP and defense. And the defensive gap may be even bigger, as Cespedes’ numbers improved once he went to LF while Fowler played in center the entire season. Fowler will be significantly cheaper than Cespedes, likely available on a deal closer to Curtis Granderson’s than to Justin Upton’s.
Odds are that Cespedes is done as a CF and if he’s not, he should be. Fowler is hardly great defensively but he’s a much more viable option there. While the Mets played both Michael Conforto and Granderson in center at times last year, it would be better to have Fowler there for a full season. Fowler has a lifetime .366 OBP and would give the Mets their best leadoff hitter since Jose Reyes in his magical 2011 season. Fowler’s presence would allow Reyes to bat lower in the order when he plays. And by lower, not second but rather sixth or seventh.
Of course, it’s not all upside with Fowler. He’s always played in hitter’s parks – Colorado, Houston, Chicago – so it would be a different environment for him in a neutral park. In his eight full-time seasons in the majors, last year was the first time he posted a positive UZR and speculation had his improved play due to superior defensive position by the Cubs. And finally, he’s been given the Qualifying Offer, meaning the Mets would have to surrender their first-round pick in order to sign him.
Still, if the choice is Cespedes at an Upton-level contract (6-years, $132.75 million) or Fowler on a Granderson-level deal (4-years, $60 million), the Mets should be more than comfortable going with Fowler. And with a draft pick coming back from whichever team signs Cespedes, the Mets would only drop from the end of the first round to the supplemental round in next year’s draft.
Not a bad idea, you would need to move Lagares and your power would need Walker and Duda to come back.
Yesterday the news was Joey Bats. That would be a perfect fit in he plays right field and can be had on a three year deal, or maybe shorter. You get rid of Bruce, put Granny in LF, and Lagares, Nimmo and Conforto rotate the CF/backup role.
You wouldn’t need to move Lagares, although you certainly could. One OF needs to go and you could compile a list of pluses or minuses for moving any of them. I’d move whichever one provided me the biggest return.
Interesting Players..Desmond can move around the field. Lot’s of K’s, but he’s a RH bat with punch and athleticism. Luis Valbuena is an interesting guy…sort of a LH Flores. He can play across the infield/1b and provide some pop and versatility. Ces plus Valbuena would be a good Hot Stove.
I love Me some Dexter!…but he’s not the same piece in this mix.
I think Mets’ fans have to get over the probable loss of Cespedes. It creates a huge hole in the offense, but it provides a chance for the front office to start to remake the team in a younger, more versatile image. Depending on the long ball too often from a small group (Cespedes, Walker, Granderson, Cabrera) is not sustainable as these over-30s guys get older.
Money spent on a long-term deal for Cespedes means that the budget will be strained when the desire to extend contracts to the young pitchers (those that prove healthy) comes into play.
Come spring training, the Mets will have to assess the viability of David Wright as an asset. The status of TdA, Duda and Jay Bruce will have to be addressed. And, of course, the sorting out of the health of the pitching corps.
Dexter Fowler would be a nice addition for a few years, but I would like to couple his addition with the subtraction of Jay Bruce as part of a deal to address other needs. Bruce, Fowler and Grandy as the starting outfield leaves Conforto, Nimmo and Lagares in limbo. Conforto, especially, has to be given a chance to prove his worth.
I would like to see the Mets get younger, speedier and have money in the budget to accommodate a Cespedes-less team. Of course, if Cespedes does return I could live with it.
“He left somewhere around $48 million over two years on the table.” I understand why, don’t get me wrong, but it’s difficult for the average hard-working schmuck to get his head around that. And that’s to play baseball, not commute to an office and answer to a boss.
A) I hope we get him back.
B) If we don’t, I hope he goes to the AL and not the Yankees.
C) Whether he stays or goes I don’t think Bruce is a good fit for this team.
D) I’ve always liked Fowler.
My goal is not to offend anyone with this reply.
I think people do understand – they just don’t like the answer. And if they truly don’t understand, it’s a very easy concept to explain.
Dexter Fowler is a very good player and the projected 4/60 is a fair value for him but the Mets should pass on him.
The present outfield of LF Conforto/ CF Granderson / RF Bruce with Lagares getting starts vs RHP while one of the other three rests, “should be” a strong hitting outfield provided that Conforto plays up to his potential. Conforto is the key. Lagares must also get back to his stellar defense that made him a 3.7 and 5.5 WAR player. Conforto and Lagares are worth the risk.
It would be better to improve the roster by taking the Fowler money and spending it on Matt Wieters at a projected 3/39 MLBTR salary and fill an obvious need at catcher.
As Name pointed out elsewhere, Wieters has played 225 games the past three years while TDA has played 250. I don’t see why you’d commit three years to him. Or give him that much money when he’s essentially 2014 d’Arnaud at this point when he’s healthy.
He had TJ. Nowhere near the same. That is ridiculous. He sat out like all TJ recoveries are. Every day its differnt with TdA. That comparison is ridiculous. Last year he played in 124 games now that hes recovered.
I like the article. Fowler is a good option. I also like the idea of trading Bruce. What about Napoli to play first. No draft pick to give up. How about trading for Dee Gordon. The Mets have a lot of options. Let’s hope they are wise and make some good moves.
With all due respect Mike.
1. We have all kinds of outfielders. Sandy just picked up the 13M on Bruce, and until he was traded, was leading the league in RBI. Everyone knows trades commonly end up in the tank until an adjustment period is over. Am I Bruce crazy? No. But I think there is little chance. You are keen to “trade” him. Mayu I ask to whom? and for whom?
2. Napoli. We already have Duda who will be tendered. Napoli is 35 and maybe a DH. Exactly what are you hoping from him. Furthermore, Flores can spell Duda at 1B as a RHB. What would you expect from Napoli?
3. Dee Gordon. Ok, so we already know SA is extending a QO and wants Walker to stay in NY. We have Flores and TJ as utility back ups. Im curious about this in-division trade. Who do you think the Marlins would want in return? Are you not th eleast bit worried his best numbers came while being on PEDs?
This is an option I haven’t thought of, and is a really good idea. Dexter may be a “Sandy” like signing, too as he seeks value.
I have trouble believing Fowler will get a long term deal this winter. He’s played in more than 130 games just twice in the last 6 years and he’s not a sexy name. Best case is probably what Melky Cabrera (3/42) got but i see him having to likely to having to settle for 2/32
That’s true but 130 is pretty arbitrary. I mean he had 125 twice, 116 and 119. So it’s not like he’s playing 70 games those years. This article is a couple of years old but gives a nice rundown of why he missed time thru the 2013 season. He played 156 games in 2015 and missed a month last year because of a hamstring injury.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/12/4/5172870/dexter-fowler-trade-is-he-injury-prone
Regardless, I think 3/42 is reasonable. I think it’s possible he might get a few more dollars and an extra year because there’s still plenty of money in the game and this year’s FA crop is pretty weak.