39 comments for “Mets re-sign Yoenis Cespedes

  1. November 29, 2016 at 2:53 pm

    I had the team/years right, but overshot on the money. I guess the full no-trade was worth $10 mil.

    • November 29, 2016 at 11:55 pm

      With what is available out there and seeing that Alderson wasn’t going to make a trade it’s not a hard decision for ownership.At least you know Cespedes likes to play here and can handle the pressure of playing in NY. You were right on point Charlie!

  2. Name
    November 29, 2016 at 3:10 pm

    Classic case of winners curse and paying for what someone has done and not for what value they will provide in the future. I still don’t think he makes sense at all since he absolutly cannot play CF.

    Predictions on when most fans will regret the deal? I’m thinking august.

    • Eric
      November 29, 2016 at 3:28 pm

      Don’t quite get your point. What do you mean by “what someone else has done”. Also, what makes you think he won’t put up numbers? This also gives Mets roster flexibility to make a deal (CF, C).

    • frank from jersey
      November 29, 2016 at 3:31 pm

      It depends where you put value. He has been the heart and soul of our offense since he got here, an offense i might add that was horrific without him. He is an absolute presence in the lineup that changes the way pitchers pitch to him and those around him. Can he be lazy at times? Yes, sir but his value far outweighs those rare times that happens. Anyone that has followed this team from opening day 2015 til now knows our offense needs him badly. We have him in his age 30-34 years. Would you like to see him team up with Murphy and Harper next season? Now that would have been a nightmare.

  3. PeteE
    November 29, 2016 at 3:20 pm

    Our winning % with him in lineup is .589. without its .439. This is a deal that had to get done. Play him in LF, put Grandy in CF. Trade Bruce or play him in RF. we are a whole lot better with Cespedes.

    • Name
      November 29, 2016 at 6:14 pm

      You can easily find other players with similar splits

      Cabrera: .562 with, .407 without
      Reyes: .583 with, .350 without

      The key to those 3 having those extreme splits? They all missed the 1-6 stretch from Aug5-12

      If you break down the games by periods, you get much less extreme and explainable splits

      Last year, our winning % with him was .630, without it was .600
      From the start of the season to August 3rd, our winning % with him in the lineup was .517, without it was .500
      From Aug4-Aug18, when Cespedes/Cabrera/ and Reyes were all injured the team went 5-10.
      From Aug19-end of season, our winning % with was .702, and we went 1-3 without him.

  4. Jimmy P
    November 29, 2016 at 3:22 pm

    Solid signing, excellent length.

    But don’t stop now.

    Sign Fowler.

    Move Bruce. Explore moving Granderson. Get help for bullpen, find an upgrade on Rivera to pair with d’Arnaud.

    Give Conforto legitimate shot.

    • Metsense
      November 30, 2016 at 2:04 pm

      I am for trading Granderson and Bruce thus giving RF to Conforto. It also means a Lagares/ Nimmo platoon and I am confident they could win a division with that outfield allignment.The better and less riskier solution would be to sign Fowler for CF.
      Granderson and Bruce are in their last year of their contracts. If the Mets move them now they will be able to get something back. A relief pitcher and some some lower level high ceiling prospects for each would be my wish.
      Fowler-Cabrera-Cespedes-Duda/Flores- Walker-Conforto- Reyes/Wright-TDA.

  5. Eraff
    November 29, 2016 at 3:24 pm

    Woo Hoo!!!!!!!!!

  6. Metsense
    November 29, 2016 at 3:40 pm

    Great! Great ! Great !!!!!!! I missed by $1 million per year.
    My post from Larry Smith’s October 15th article:
    The Mets need his right handed bat in the middle of the order to balance the left handed power hitters. In 2016 they committed to $25M per year for the next three years. $25M is the highest salary for an outfielder.He will actually make 27.5M in 2016 when he opts out. It is obvious that the Mets can afford this annual expenditure. Alderson is astute in not giving long term contracts. Four years at $26.5M is $106M added to this year’s $27.5M will total $133.5M. That is more in 5 years than Justin Upton will receive in a six year deal of $132.75M. Cespedes would be 35 at the start of his free agent year in 2021. Still young enough to get another paycheck.

  7. MattyMets
    November 29, 2016 at 4:12 pm

    I love that he’s back and I’m okay with the years and amount, however I don’t like the particulars. Why escalating salaries and not declining like Wright’s contract, or at least steady? I guess we had to give in on the no-trade, but that must have been a tough pill to swallow.

    I wanted to trade Bruce even if Yo didn’t come back, now he absolutely must be traded. Hopefully we can get some bullpen help. Lagares can platoon in CF with Nimmo or Conforto and the other can be the reserve until Grandy’s contract is up. Outfield should be okay. With Lagares and Flores in the lineup against lefties we’ll have a balanced enough lineup.

    Now the winter meetings can be all about getting the best reliever we can find for Bruce as well as signing either Blevins or Boone Logan. If we can’t fetch a good reliever for him, we could also flip Bruce for prospects and bring back Salas. Toronto, Detroit and Boston all need a lefty bat.

    • Eraff
      November 29, 2016 at 5:22 pm

      The escalating $$$ were probably requested by the team, not Ces. They begin to get Positional relief in $$$ over the next 3 years—Grandee, Walker, Bruce, Duda—at least a couple of those will go away.

  8. John Fox
    November 29, 2016 at 4:42 pm

    I haven’t seen anything about whether there is a 1 year opt out like in the previous contract, so I guess there is no opt out this time?

  9. Larry Smith
    November 29, 2016 at 5:33 pm

    Count me in as happy that he’s back and think the years and the dollars make sense in the baseball world. Since clearly he will be the LFer for the next 4 years it does make sense to trade Jay Bruce and/or Granderson.
    I think it crucial that Conforto gets comfortable playing RF and 1B if he is to remain a contributing member of the team in the next few years.

  10. Jim OMalley
    November 29, 2016 at 6:51 pm

    Jubilation! Super-hotdamn-duper!

  11. Chris F
    November 29, 2016 at 7:31 pm

    Total win for the team and the player. The plain fact is Ces is the straw that stirs the Mets drink. They are a much much better team with him in the line up. Added benefit, we dont have to see him wearing a curly W, or face him in the post season.

  12. TexasGusCC
    November 30, 2016 at 1:26 am

    The signing of Cespedes takes a ton of pressure off Alderson’s mind, but I’m surprised at the no trade clause. I guess he traded the fifth year for Cespedes’ peace of mind. Now, Alderson can exploit the market. I disagree with getting a reliever for Bruce, as there are plenty available as free agents. Since you’ll pay him anyway, get a couple of prospects for Bruce and sign a reliever; he can’t do the opposite.

    Secondly, there seems to be a little noise about also moving Granny, according to MLBTR. Understandable, having a Nimmo/Lagares combo should bring the overall return of Granderson while not necessarily getting a 2.5 WAR in any one month (like say September after a lost season), but with the weakness in the market for hitting, Alderson may get something worthwhile. If not, he keeps Granny.

    The second trade would also be a hedge against Collins’ mentality of playing veterans until their tongue drags on the floor. Then, you use Rivera in the fifth outfielder / extra infielder role.

    And to use Wilponomics: Bruce + Granny = Cespedes.

    • Jimmy P
      November 30, 2016 at 12:14 pm

      I don’t get Rivera in the outfield. Just don’t see that at all.

      I hate to focus solely on what a player can’t do, because in the process you tend to miss what they actually bring to the table. I like, very much, that he can hit for average. It’s a skill that’s undervalued in today’s baseball. All these people talking about RISP numbers and yet ignoring that BA is at the core of it. Anyway . . .

      He can’t run. He doesn’t walk. He can’t hit for power. And the glove is blah. He needs to hit .320 to be useful. The free-swinging approach makes me doubt that he can maintain that. I think he’s forced the issue and will get something of a chance to prove himself. But personally I have very low expectations.

      • TexasGusCC
        November 30, 2016 at 1:27 pm

        Jimmy, while I agree with your last two paragraphs, the reason I brought up Rivera in the outfield is that Alderson has already said that Conforto will play everyday next year. So, you put Lagares/Nimmo in CF, and you basically need someone to stand in RF for seven innings in the 15 or so games against a tough lefty pitcher. Rivera has played a little outfield in Las Vegas but the key is that he fits the change in the dynamics of the offense. The Nationals have already committed to getting away from the “all or nothing” approach and if the Mets want to also, two areas that can improve are RF and CF as the others are pretty much rigid.

  13. Chris F
    November 30, 2016 at 8:08 am

    Its time to unload Bruce, which we all know is coming, as well as Duda, and give Conforto and DW 1b mitts. Save the cash. Unload Lagares too, and get Fowler.

    • Jimmy P
      November 30, 2016 at 12:10 pm

      I am basically with you, except I’d keep Duda and move Granderson, as I believe Conforto’s best future is as an outfielder.

      Get Fowler.

      They need a leadoff hitter, an OBP guy, and need a true CF.

      Obviously Bruce must go. I’d seek live power arms or an upgrade over Rivera at catcher to tandem with d’Arnaud.

      Explore all options!

      • Chris F
        November 30, 2016 at 12:24 pm

        I can see that too. My thought about nontendering Duda was to save the money to get Fowler. I think we can get the same offense by platooning folks with cheap or fixed salaries – and we get the same production by saving 9M$.

        Ive been a Duda fan since the start, but if you give me the option to play Duda at 1B or Fowler at CF, I take the latter every time.

        v. LHP I see a 1B platoon of DWright and Flores
        v. RHP 1B goes to Conforto

        • Name
          November 30, 2016 at 10:23 pm

          Ridiculous. Once again i will point out that Duda 2014-2015 was producing at Cespedes 2015-2016 levels. (~133 OPS+)

          Good luck thinking that you can get replacement production on that from platoons.

          Meanwhile, Fowler’s best season was last year and it was only 126 OPS+. From 2011-2015, he average a 110 OPS+, not to mention he’s usually not good for more than 125 games, and last year was his first positive UZR season at CF.

          • Chris F
            November 30, 2016 at 10:37 pm

            that was a million years ago.

            • Name
              December 1, 2016 at 1:50 pm

              And that’s the typical myopic “what did you do for me yesterday” viewpoint held by most fans

              • Jimmy P
                December 1, 2016 at 2:58 pm

                Apropos of nothing.

                I bought and read all the annuals, from before Bill James and on, and I think the worst aspect of the SABR revolution is that it tends toward arrogance.

                When people stare at numbers for too long, they become certain of their unassailable correctness, forgetting that statistics (sometimes) lie.

                That’s why when I read Baseball Prospectus, for example, a lot of those folks come off as total assholes. Often correct, but almost always condescending about it. Sort of punkish and immature. Maybe that’s what sells.

              • Chris F
                December 1, 2016 at 3:35 pm

                hardly. Not only is Duda streaky, he is coming off most of a year with a serious back injury.

                The numbers hardly say everything. Like deck chairs, they can be rearranged to say anything. Like you, I work with numbers for a living. Baseball games arent played by average values of anything, WAR, or wRC+ — its actual people with actual things going on. We have no clue if Duda is even capable of playing right now, so yeah, his 2014 numbers are wholly irrelevant to 2017.

                • Name
                  December 1, 2016 at 5:54 pm

                  I’ll ignore the streaky comment, and while yes he did come off a serious back injury, he did come back and play games at the end of last year.

                  There should be no denying that he was very good in 2014-2015, and that if healthy, there should be no reason why he can’t replicate those numbers. You may not think that his health will allow him to do that, and that’s up to you, but Duda is easily the highest ceiling out of whatever platoon combo you wish to conjure up.

                  And i might add, why do you not extend these same injury concerns to Fowler? The guy has started more than 120 games just once!!! in his entire career. He’s also started no less than 105, so while they not might be half a season injuries, eventually you would think his luck would run out and one of them would be very serious.

                  And on a tangent, that lack of health should really be factored in any potential contract. If you think he’s a 15 mil player, that valuation should cut by 25% if you think 150 is considered a “full season” but he’s only able to give you 115

                • Chris F
                  December 1, 2016 at 6:47 pm

                  since 2011, Fowler has played in 128 more games than Duda, which is a whole season more than the 109 games/year, which is Duda’s 6 year average.

                  Folwer plays a key position that is a weakness in both the defense and offense for the Mets. Not only is he a lock center fielder, he is a real lead-off hitter and on-base machine. The power based Mets need more people on base to prevent the 30 HR <60 RBI mess of Grandy. I struggle to believe a platoon of Flores who mashes lefty's and Conforto who mashes righty's would not considerably eclipse Duda facing both LHP and RHP. We have people than can man 1B, but the mix we have in CF, which will likely be Granny/Lagares, will not come close to what Fowler can do from batting leadoff.

                • Name
                  December 1, 2016 at 8:03 pm

                  Looking from 2011 makes little sense because he was sent down multiple times from 2011-2013 plus had to timeshare with Ike Davis.

                  If you add in his minor league games, Duda averaged 140 games and played in 18 more games than Fowler from 2011-2015. Even when you add in 2016, Fowler only outpaces him by 50 games.

                  But i still can’t get over the fact that Fowler has yet to start more than 120 games in any season. In other words, you can say he’s never been a regular. Ever. In any season. In the last 8 years. Never. I don’t know how you can pay him starting money knowing that you can’t write his name in the lineup 25% of the time.
                  And he wants 18+ mil per season. Lol.

                  • December 2, 2016 at 12:14 am

                    I posted the link earlier that detailed all of the injuries that Fowler has had. You simply cannot deny them or sweep them under a rug. However, part of the reason for the lower than expected start totals is that when he was in Colorado, they had an abundance of OFers that they viewed as being starter-worthy. Play Index doesn’t list starts, so I’m using Games, which is good enough

                    2009 – 4 OFers who played in 100+ games and Carlos Gonzalez played 89 – Fowler had 2nd most
                    2010 – 4 OFers in 100+, Fowler fourth-most but 2 games away from second-most
                    2011 – 3rd-most
                    2012 – 4 OFers who played in 100+ games – Fowler had the most
                    2013 – 3rd-most

                    FWIW – he played more games than any other OF for Colorado in this span, 48 more than Carlos Gonzalez. They also had Seth Smith, Brad Hawpe, Ryan Spillborghs, Michael Cuddyer, Tyler Colvin and Charlie Blackmon seeing significant time in various parts of this span.

                    Might as well look at starts at this point.

                    2013 – 2nd most OF starts on the team
                    2012 – 2nd most
                    2011 – 2nd most
                    2010 – 2nd most
                    2009 – 2nd most

                    Hard to say he’s never been a regular.

                • Chris F
                  December 1, 2016 at 10:29 pm

                  Its also about 500 more ABs over the same time. So what ever gymnastics you want to use to somehow say Fowler isnt on the field, its way more than Duda. My main point is simply, and it remains, a combination Flores v LHP and Conforto v RHP would certainly outpace Duda’s production at a cost of 9M$ next year. And Fowler would be an improvement over other options at lead off, and plays a fine CF. Is it worth the purchasing his services with the money saved from Bruce (13M) and Duda (9M)? I would take that bet.

                  Minor league games dont count. I just want production on a big league field.

                • Name
                  December 1, 2016 at 11:47 pm

                  If we’re trying to prove Duda’s health, then his minor league numbers should certainly count. If you don’t want to count it then you have to change the parameters of your timeframe because it’s not fair count him being in the minors as not being healthy, which is what you are currently doing.

                  I still don’t think you’ve grasped how often Fowler has not started. Saying he’s played a wee bit more than Duda, a guy who over the same period spent half a year in the minors, is hardly a compliment. I would wager that no one who has received a 10+ million salary has never not exceeded 120 games in a season, which is what Fowler is poised to do.

                  “My main point is simply, and it remains, a combination Flores v LHP and Conforto v RHP would certainly outpace Duda’s production at a cost of 9M$ next year. And Fowler would be an improvement over other options at lead off, and plays a fine CF. ”

                  And one could easily make the reverse argument. A combination of Lagares v LHP and Granderson v RHP would certainly outpace Fowler’s cost of (greater than 10 mil) next year. And Duda would be an improvement over other options in any lineup spot, and plays a fine 1b. (Fowler btw does not play a fine CF, he’s acceptable at best and not very good most of the time)

                  • December 2, 2016 at 6:49 am

                    In 2015, Fowler played in 152 games and made 149 starts.

  14. November 30, 2016 at 8:33 am

    Perfect Chris. I’m all in with you. Would force Collins to play Cespedes in a corner outfield (where he belongs) and have a true CF in there who could lead off as well. Thank the Cubs for signing Jay. Hard to have so many question marks (Wright, Duda,Wheeler, etc) entering a season. I’ve been asking for Wright to move across the diamond like Cabrerra did for Detroit for a long time. We’ll see.

  15. November 30, 2016 at 2:48 pm

    Rubin: “In order to free the 40-man roster spot for Yoenis Cespedes’ return, Logan Verrett has been traded to the Orioles for cash.”

    • TexasGusCC
      November 30, 2016 at 5:10 pm

      That probably means they will tender Rene Rivera in two days. Had they planned on not doing it, it seems like the obvious fix. Sorry to hear about the kid from Corpus Christi, but, we wish him well.

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