Assuming the Mets front office does what we think they’re going to do over the next few weeks – unload Jay Bruce and his $13 million salary and bring in a secondary bullpen arm or two – we’ll be in pretty good shape. That is to say, good enough to compete for the playoffs if we stay reasonably healthy. But, is that really good enough?
As presently constituted, and again, assuming reasonable health, the Mets don’t have any glaring weaknesses. We have the makings of a strong rotation, a solid bullpen, a good enough lineup with balance and depth. Yes we could use a better catcher than Travis d’Arnaud, but at last check the handful of impact catchers in baseball are either unavailable (Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, Jonathan Lucroy, Salvador Perez) or vastly overpaid (Russell Martin, Brian McCann).
Looking at this roster objectively, we’re in the conversation among teams who could make the playoffs but have a few questions – teams like the Giants, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers, Astros, and Rangers. Not a bad place to be, but we’re not in that sure thing category like the Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, Nationals, and Dodgers – teams that seem like a lock to make the playoffs and who have a real shot to go to the World Series.
Aside from hoping for good health and bounce back seasons, is there a tangible move the Mets could make that would give us all more confidence in 2017? Is there one available player who could catapult us from good to great? Is it a hitter, starter, or reliever?
There’s been some talk about Andrew McCutchen, but as Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes, McCutchen provides “a very convoluted answer to their outfield logjam.” In a best case scenario, he bounces back from the worst season of his career – offensively and defensively – to return to MVP form. As an everyday centerfielder with a good glove and a big bat in front of Yoenis Cespedes, suddenly our offense is vastly improved, right? If that was a likely outcome, the Mets might be inclined to jump through the hoops necessary to get him, which includes quickly dumping both Bruce and Curtis Granderson for salary relief, then parting with two or three very valuable young players such as pitcher Steven Matz or Robert Gsellman, outfielder Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo, and top prospect Amed Rosario. *record scratch* never mind.
There are other centerfield upgrade options available, including the Rockies Charlie Blackmon and Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain. But how much of an upgrade would either of these players represent over a platoon of Granderson and Juan Lagares? This writer’s hunch is, not enough to justify dumping the beloved and valuable Granderson and parting with a lot of young talent. The Mets just don’t have the pitching depth to justify trading away Matz or Gsellman and Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario represent an affordable future with a lot of upside for a team that’s likely to lose a number of veteran players to free agency after this season.
This is just one Met fan’s opinion, but the best way for the Mets to improve their team is not by adding a bat, but rather adding an impact bullpen arm, preferably a lefty. Perhaps the Indians would part with Andrew Miller for the right price so they can free up some payroll for Edwin Encarnacion. It couldn’t hurt to check in with the Orioles on the asking price for Zach Britton as they may need to shave payroll to bring back Mark Trumbo. And while we’re on the phone with the Pirates, Tony Watson would make a great addition.
A three-headed monster in the pen, on top of a powerful rotation, would make the Mets a team to be reckoned with in 2017.
Bonus trivia: Which available free agent has a career .350 batting average against Madison Bumgarner? Hint: It wouldn’t be his first time in a Mets cap.
The Infield is Duda, Reyes, Cabrera, Walker— every other name is a question mark—and I believe “?” would be an improved status for David Wright. They will need more, unless they anticipate a Front Line Contribution from Chechini and/or Rosario.
4 Starting Pitchers were shelved at the end of the year… enough said
The outfield rotation has lot’s of bodies…which ones will be here?
The approach is definitely wait and see…on health, readiness of their young players. They should keep most of their tradable assets until their roster status is better known. Some of those trades will probably happen in Spring as other teams identify vet needs and the health of Mets tradable vets.
I will guess that any “big trade” will be for another legitimate MLB infielder…. I anticipate a David Wright Exit
The short answer is no. Of the players available via free agency there really isn’t anyone available that can make an impact. Chris Carter is probably the best of the poor lot and even he isn’t a sure upgrade. Trade Jay Bruce for Dalton Pompey and resign Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas. Maybe give Joe Smith a Minor League contract.
Make any major additions in-season after they know what arms they can rely on and who’s stock in the minors has improved.
I don’t think Anderson will ever pay for a bullpen arm and I think he thinks you just try and get lucky with a relief pitcher. I would take McCutchen in a heartbeat. Put him in right and Lagares is your center fielder.
Welcome to the fold, Jeff and thanks for your support. I’d love Cutch but what the Pirates are supposedly asking for is insane. The only way I’d give up Matz, Conforto and Rosario on in one trade is if it was for Trout or Kershaw. That’s our future right there.
Antonio Bastardo? Reed? Blevins?
The Mets spent just as much as the other 4 eventual NL playoff teams on their opening day bullpens last year at 20.5 mil.
The Nats were at ~23 mil
The Cubs were ~18 mil
Dodgers (hard to calculate because of DL) were ~24 mil
Giants were at ~23 mil.
This season, you’re already looking at Reed/Familia costing around 19 mil just between the 2 of them, which alone is probably already top 10 in the game. Get to 25+ mil and you’re probably top 5.
You left out your pal Frank Francisco.
Aug-Sep 2015 Travis d’Arnaud
🙂
Good point, Brian.
I think given the wild fluctuations surrounding Travis, he could be seen as the key to the season. If he plays up to potential, the upside is huge.
If he falters or gets injured, that position becomes a black hole offensively and really hinders the team’s run production.
I thought SA needed to upgrade “Plan B” at catcher.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-link-between-travis-darnauds-set-up-and-struggles/
And one other guy:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/we-still-havent-seen-the-best-of-noah-syndergaard/
The Indians are defending AL Champs in win now mode. Why on earth would they deal Miller after going to the 10th inning in game 7 and acquiring Encarnacion? Makes zero sense.
Rosario wont be traded for anyone.
Who do you propose the Mets offer in return for Miller? Given the ace reliever market, you can expect Antonetti to ask for Syndergaard.
A bullpen arm would be nice but I agree Sandy won’t pay for it. Maybe the best addition will be Zack Wheeler getting healthy and pitching the back end of the bullpen while Familia is suspended.
Matt, a very good analysis. I concur with your assessments and also agree that a three headed bullpen would have the most impact on the team’s success.
Zach Britton was a great suggestion and if the Orioles are still looking maybe Bruce and eating some salary will work. Watson is another good idea but I don’t see a trade fit with the Pirates. The ChiSox may move Robertson for Bruce also. The better the return for Bruce, the better the Mets will be. Unfortunately Bruce is probably not enough for this type of relief pitcher.
This is virtually the same team that the Mets started 2016 with. The word most used is “hope”. We hope that d”Arnaud plays better, we hope that Wright comes back, we hope that Duda rebounds, we hope that Walker and Cabrera play like they did last year, we hope that Granderson can still produce, we hope that Conforto can hit breaking pitches. The only position player that we can really count on to put up average to good number is Cespedes.
So why, does anyone think that the Mets will all of a sudden score a lot more runs where they are relying on “hope” at every position ? Maybe, they hit some home runs, but they have to get on base first. They don’t have a true leadoff hitter. The Nats didnt either and they went out and got Eaton. The Cardinals didnt either and they signed Fowler.
Too much noise on lowering payroll before they can even get a reliever. Well, Bruce is like a bad debt to a business, Write it off and move on.
Think out of the box. How about Brett Gardner? How about Jarrod Dyson? How about the best fielding CF in the game today, Kevin Kiermaier?
Lets at least make some moves and make the attempt to keep up with the better teams in order to compete.
I “hope” your analysis gets better
I fail to see what’s so fundamentally wrong about the 2016 team. Mets fans sure have gotten greedy. It used to be, “Let’s try to make the playoffs” and now it’s “Unless they can win 120 games, why bother?”
Moves for the sake of making moves? Go ask AJ Preller or Dave Stewart/Tony LaRussa how that worked out.
I can think of eleven more teams that will be “hoping” a lot more than the Mets.
The 2017 team is already better than the 2016 and the 2016 team was fourth best in the league.
We have never seen the starting pitching run on all five cylinders. If and when that happens the team will be elite. Pitching is the difference.
Your examples of thinking outside the box seem more like – Let’s concentrate on fast guys.
Brett Gardner – While he’s still a good baserunner, both his offense and defense has taken a tumble. Curtis Granderson had a .723 OPS last year against LHP and everyone wants to platoon him. Gardner had a .650 mark. And Gardner’s OPS was 73 points higher in Yankee Stadium than elsewhere. What happens when he isn’t playing in a park that favors lefties? In 2010, he added three wins with his defense. Last year it was just half a win and that was primarily playing LF. Can he play CF anymore? He hasn’t played center on a regular basis since 2013.
Jarrod Dyson – He’s 32 years old and his career high in games in the majors is 120 and his career high in PA is 337. He’s never had an OPS+ or wRC+ of 100. But he can steal bases – got to give him that.
Kevin Kiermaier – Hey, at least this one’s interesting. He fills your speed fetish but at least with his superior defense he brings something else to the table. But I can’t get past the fact that if you’re comfortable playing a guy whose main asset is defense in center, why not just play Lagares? Especially once you factor in what the Rays would ask for in trade to get a guy who’s amassed 13.1 fWAR the past three years.
With these three and your Mallex Smith fascination elsewhere – you’re so enamored with guys who can run that you’re willing to overlook just about everything else. I’m sure we could get Eric Young Jr. really cheap.
I’d like to see a speed guy because we really don’t have one. I just remember the 86 Mets frequently running around the bases. I respect your analysis skills. I am old school and would love to see some Billy Ball and manufacture some runs. Team improvements in any area would be graciously accepted.
Merry Christmas to all and thank you to all for your great articles.
I think we are a year closer to seeing a Rosario debut as well.
The success is totally dependent on the health of the team and starting rotation. If both remain healthy, then we could be looking at a competitive year within the division. If injuries plague the team, then we will be clawing our way for a second straight wildcard appearance. This season is dependent on health, which can’t be solved through free agency.
I think it’s the wrong question. Not about the one guy, but about minor upgrades up and down the roster.
Wheeler in the pen is very interesting. When you look at the cost of relievers today, this could be a huge asset. Lugo in pen, too.
Sandy looked at the costs and concluded, long ago, that the best path is to grew relievers from within — whenever possible. I don’t believe he’s done a good job at that, at all, but his intentions are good.
A lot depends on Travis D’Arnaud — not thrilled w/ Rivera as his partner. That kind of incremental upgrade can make a difference.
I hope Conforto plays a lot and is given consistent support from coaching staff.
Lastly, Reyes can’t be seen as an everyday player, lead off man. If it comes to that, we’re in some trouble. A sub .700 OPS vs RHP is not good. Very useful guy, but let’s not mistake him for something he’s not.
Rosario could become a key player in the second half, allowing Cabrera to shift to 3B.
SA needs to pick up a couple of washed-up veteran starters from the Mexican league, or wherever, and stash them down in Vegas. I want Gsellman and Lugo getting outs the only place that matters, in NY for the Mets.
First place or bust!
The Mets are most probably a contender, but I find it hard to visualize them turning out a team superior to the other elite National League teams, namely Chi and Washington.
With that in mind, what would you say to a high ceiling/bottomless floor trade to try and cover some of that distance? What I had in mind was trading for Jurickson Profar, the Ranger’s twice injured former Phenom. If Gsellman and Molina would do it, I think I would roll those dice, install him at second base, move Walker to third, and wait to see what happens.
Everyone loves Profar’s talent, but the results have been less than impressive. Don’t fall in love with scouting reports and weigh what you will be giving up. Gsellman alone is too much. If you had Profar, would the Rangers give you a good young starter for him? Lugo alone may be more closer to reality, but I would rather give them Nimmo.
I believe a strong RHP reliever such as Greg Holland or David Robertson could really help solidify the Mets bullpen and turn our games into 6 inning affairs with a three headed monster of Familia, Reed, and either Holland or Robertson.
A few of you pointed out something really interesting. Zack Wheeler has the potential to be a real difference maker on this team. He’s always reminded me of John Smoltz. What if he could develop into an awesome reliever? That would be a serious bonus for this team.
Matt, the Smoltz comparison has been brought up by Smoltz himself and there’s even a feeling that following Smoltz’s path back from TJ surgery, that is the bullpen for two years and then rotation, is the best way to keep a pitcher fully engaged while allowing the strength to rebuild. Problem right now is, that while it sounds good, Wheeler hasn’t thrown a pitch since March 2015 and we don’t know how he will do.
So, you have to bring in another arm for “just in case” and tell the idiot that he isn’t Scott Rice.
Speaking of Rice, since Matz will undoubtedly be on an innings limit, maybe also stall his opening and then put the big five all in the rotation after the all star break!