We’re in that funnel between the old year and the new. It’s a time for reflection and a time for looking ahead, that human dichotomy of celebrating what’s just passed and getting excited for what’s on the horizon. It’s been an odd year, a year of upheaval for many. I won’t go as far as Noah Syndergaard, but 2016 has not been everybody’s cup o’ tea. It certainly wasn’t for Mets fans after game 163. In any case, the books are closed on this year, baseball-wise and if you can believe it, Spring Training begins a mere six weeks hence. The Mets are hoping against hope that all those men mentioned in Syndergaard’s Tweet will be back, healthy and strong come February. We all are.
But past that? Who knows who will still be here in 2018? In a perfect world, of course we’d love to hang on to Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Stephen Matz and Zack Wheeler in perpetuity, but baseball economics being what they are, there is zero chance of that happening. GM Sandy Alderson must choose wisely on whom to lavish riches and years – once again, taking on an unenviable task, one beyond most of our scopes. However, your intrepid columnist will try and sort things out.
Syndergaard (in his final pre-arbitration season): He is under team control through the 2020 season, so there’s no real rush to lock him up long-term…until there is. As he moves through the arbitration steps, the imperative might get stronger to buy out an arb-year or two, plus a couple of free agent years. In terms of talent, this should be the guy the front office wants to keep.
Harvey (in his next-to-last arbitration season): This one is tricky. This guy brought us back. His 2013 season electrified the fan base. His 2015 season pointed the way to the pennant. His 2014 and 2016 seasons were lost to injuries. He’s had a spiky relationship with the press, the fans and the front office and nobody is a fan of his agent. You’d think you want to keep him around for his bulldog attitude and his performances in big games when healthy, but he will command an astounding figure when he hits free agency in 2019 and of course, everyone assumes he will end up across town, playing for the team he rooted for as a child. Much as I’d love to have him forever, I don’t see it as possible.
deGrom (a “Super-Two,” in the first of four arbitration seasons): This is probably the other guy the team wants to lock up for awhile. He has been a steady, consistent performer, trusted to take the ball time and again with a season on the line. Since winning Rookie-Of-The-Year in 2014, he has been the “next guy” on this team, playing the Jerry Koosman role to the big aces. But he is the guy you want out there with everything in the balance. It’s not far-fetched that the Mets will buy out two arb-years and one or two free agent years.
There is little rush to sign Wheeler or Matz long term at this point. Wheeler is in his first arbitration year and with his injury history is slated to be awarded a little over a million dollars for this season. Matz has this year and next before he’s even arbitration-eligible. Both are at risk of major injury and neither has really proven anything on the field, to this point. We’ll revisit this discussion on them when the time comes.
For the moment, though, here’s hoping two of the Big Three will be around awhile.
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I’m not advocating this – just throwing it out for discussion.
The whole idea of locking someone up early, from a management POV, is to try to offer security in exchange for a discount. For the players, you trade potential future money for guaranteed income.
Isn’t the perfect person for the Mets to do an extension Matz?
There’s reason for him to want to do it in that he’s been injury prone. And for the club’s POV, there’s got to to be a price point where it’s worth taking on the injury risk.
It’s tough because the Mets have him under control for five years. But if you’re Matz and the club offered seven years – maybe the last year an option – for $40 million, could you turn that down?
Maybe the numbers are way off – didn’t try to figure out what he would likely make in arbitration and two years of free agency with normal pitcher health. But theoretically a deal here could make sense for both sides.
Brian, I had the same thought. Matz is the type of player the Rays lock up early, but few teams do that. If the Mets are smart they lock up Thor and deGrom to the types of deals Bumgarner and Sale got after their first years of arbitration.
Pitchers are brittle and break easy. It is risky to extend pitchers so it is twice as difficult to extend them before arbitration. Harvey and deGrom finished the season on the DL. Both are arb eligible. Both should prove their health before the Mets consider an extension. The others are not arb eligible so the Mets should wait on extensions. The Met staff has been proof of the health risk.
Per Brian’s Logic, Matz and deGrom might each have motivation. Syndergaard might eventually also lock up some early big (discounted) money, with the idea that he might go back out at 29/30 and make a major haul.
The Mets are going to be in a strong rotation of costs from veteran Position Players to lower cost young Position Players…and the Pitchers are going to be getting very expensive, and very quickly.
On a side note, the Lagares contract is going to look bad soon if things don’t change radically for him on the field. $9 million in 2019.
In general, I’ve shifted away from “locking guys up” as a strategy. Especially with pitchers. Because of all the unknowns that can happen, I’m now more of the opinion that clubs should get their savings when they can, and if the guy turns out to be great, then pay the big money or deal with that “problem” another way.
There are always exceptions.
I like Brian’s thinking, but not the player. To me, deGrom has always been the right guy, because he’s glimpsed into the void. He knows TJ surgery, he knows how fragile it all can be. I’d think he could be tempted for a life-changing contract now, giving the Mets two more years of control in exchange for lifetime security.
Personally, I’d wait across the board and make some decisions next winter.