Despite several tons of virtual ink, the Mets didn’t sign Dexter Fowler and they didn’t trade for Andrew McCutchen. Which means we’re likely to see a fair amount of Curtis Granderson in center field in 2017. Ideally, Granderson would be in left field because of his sub-par arm. But he’s likely to be better suited to play center than right field. In the middle of the diamond, at least some runners won’t go first to third on a single. So there’s that.
Yet Granderson will turn 36 in March and he hasn’t played center full time since 2012. For a team with designs on a third straight playoff appearance, it seems curious that you would count on him being able to hold down the position for a full year. Some have suggested that the club should run a straight platoon, with Juan Lagares starting against lefties and also coming in as a defensive replacement whenever the Mets have a close lead late in the game.
Lagares is head and shoulders above Granderson as a defensive player, so the idea of using him as a defensive caddy makes sense, even if Granderson was not awful in his brief time in center in 2016. Last year Granderson had a +1 DRS, a 0.3 UZR and a 1.7 UZR/150 in 251 innings in CF. Additionally, according to Inside Edge Fielding, he made 53 out of 54 plays that the system classified as “Likely” or “Routine,” ones that were handled by other center fielders at least 60% of the time.
But what about running a straight platoon based on the opposing pitcher’s handedness?
The perception is that the lefty swinging Granderson has great trouble hitting against southpaws. Another perception is that the righty swinging Lagares performs well against lefties. So, let’s check and see how well this conventional wisdom holds up to scrutiny.
Lifetime, Granderson has a .698 OPS versus LHP while Lagares checks in with a .735 mark. It’s not a huge difference but it’s definitely noticeable and easy to see why the platoon idea has gained so much traction. In addition to getting better production, it also gives a built in excuse to give consistent days off to the veteran, something Granderson simply hasn’t gotten in his three years with the Mets.
But sometimes you have to look past the raw numbers and see how it was that they were produced in order to get the whole picture. We’ll give a look at both players but let’s start with Lagares. He only has four seasons in the majors and as you might expect, two of his campaigns he posted a higher OPS against LHP than his lifetime .735 and two times he was below that mark.
Here are his yearly OPS marks against southpaws, starting with 2013:
.657
.875
.771
.650
His 2014 season was a big outlier. In his other three years, Lagares has amassed a .257/.305/.393 line for a .698 OPS. Of course you can’t just ignore what he did in his best year. Instead, use this to see how much his results in 2014 are currently influencing this split. The lifetime difference between Lagares and Granderson against LHP is produced solely by what Lagares accomplished in his outlier season of 2014.
Now let’s look at Granderson. With 10 years of at least 136 games played, as well as three other partial seasons, there’s a much bigger body of work to examine. Granderson still has outliers but perhaps even more importantly is that in his career, Granderson has gone from a guy who was mostly helpless against lefties to one who more than held his own. Let’s break his OPS versus LHP down into two groups, both in consecutive seasons, starting in 2006, the first year he was a full-time player.
| Group A | Group B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | PA | OPS | Year | PA | OPS |
| 2006 | 164 | .671 | 2011 | 219 | .944 |
| 2007 | 133 | .494 | 2012 | 247 | .762 |
| 2008 | 159 | .739 | 2013 | 73 | .792 |
| 2009 | 199 | .484 | 2014 | 176 | .742 |
| 2010 | 174 | .647 | 2015 | 143 | .558 |
| 2016 | 161 | .723 |
For more on his transition, see Curtis Granderson’s success versus lefty pitchers, published after the 2014 season.
We see that in Group A, Granderson posted a sub .700 OPS in four of his five years while in Group B, he’s posted an OPS below .700 just one time in six seasons. Since 2011, the start of Group B, Granderson has a .232/.316/.449 mark against southpaws. That’s a .765 OPS, even with his poor showing in 2015. Compare that to the .738 lifetime mark of Lagares, which includes his outlier .875 OPS in 2014.
Okay, let’s remove Granderson’s outlier year of 2011 and Lagares’ outlier season of 2014. Recall that Lagares had a .698 OPS versus lefties without his big year. Granderson, from 2012-2016, has a .716 OPS versus LHP. Furthermore, Granderson was above that mark in 2016, while Lagares was below his .698 mark (.647) a season ago.
Unless you think Granderson is going to revert to 2015, there’s no reason to prefer Lagares simply because a lefty is on the mound.
To me, it still makes more sense to give Granderson time off when he’s in the middle of one of his prolonged slumps, rather than whenever a lefty is on the mound. From August 17 until the end of the year, when he had a 1.019 OPS overall, Granderson had a .982 OPS against lefties. Why sit him then just because a southpaw is pitching? Wouldn’t it make more sense to rest him more when he’s slumping? From May 1 to May 20, he had a .494 OPS against righty pitchers. Wouldn’t it have made more sense to give him a day off in mid-May against a righty than anytime the final seven weeks against a lefty?
We’re not asking for a crystal ball here. It’s painfully obvious when Granderson is in one of his extended funks, which typically last two weeks or more. If he’s gone double digit days with sub-Plaweckian production, he may need a day off, regardless of who’s on the mound. If he’s slumping badly and has an 0-4 with three strikeouts, give him a day off. If he takes the collar but squares two balls up that found a fielder’s glove – maybe you give him another start.
The bottom line is you want to maximize the club’s chances of winning. My opinion is that looking to break up extended cold streaks with days off for Granderson would do a better job of maximizing Mets wins than simply sitting him against all lefties. Additionally, regardless of how well Granderson’s playing, we should look for Lagares to be in center field in games that the Mets are winning close in the late innings.
Who knew you were such a Brainiac…i thought you were simply extra clever and quicksilver with a quip…why don’t we alleviate the issue and trade for one of the dodgers spare centerfielders or that Blackmon kid!
Those could be decent options, depending on what the cost is. I heard that the Rockies were looking for a package similar to what the White Sox got for Eaton before they trade Blackmon. That’s too rich for my blood.
A platoon in centerfield is the best alternative because of the way that the team is presently contructed. It will give Lagares about 36 starts. Granderson can slide over to right field in half those starts for Conforto (or Bruce). Playing only 144 games from a 36 year old outfieder should keep him fresh. Granderson in center is not ideal but he should be better than Cespedes was. I agree that when Granderson does go through his hitting slumps that he should be rested but unfortunately TC does not manage that way. A healthy Lagares is a pleasure to watch playing CF and hopefully he will have an improved year with the bat or else he will remain a fourth outfielder for the rest of his career.
I would like to agree with Metsense, but add to it. True that with a platoon the rest days will therefore be more consistent and keep Granderson from either getting hurt due to fatigue or wearing down, but we must add to the .698 OPS that Lagares is a gold glove centerfielder. Plus, the last two years Lagares was trying to play hurt, first a bad right elbow and then a wrapped left thumb/hand, and that certainly didn’t allow him to hit at full strength that Granderson enjoyed. That must be recognized since most players show their guaranteed contract at the door and spend the DL time playing with their kids.
So, Lagares as a .698 OPS while injured (including last year not being able to use his left hand) gives hope to a better showing while hopefully healthy. But, I would take a gold glove .698 over an average at best centerfielder with a .716 OPS, especially when there is room for better from the injured player and it will give the older player consistent rest. Plus, centerfield may be the most important defensive position so the glove carries more weight.
To me, it’s a slam dunk. A platoon, and even throw in two or three starts a month against righties for Lagares to keep him more involved and giving rest to the other guys while Granny covers for them, will be the best use of the current roster.
It looks like the Mets have 3 maybe for plausible options. I like the idea of moving Grandy rf on occasion. Depending on the score, it also wouldn’t hurt to give Conforto a few innings in C.f. You never know when it would come in handy……..that is if he is in the boys.
Great piece Brian. This is a tough one. I agree with more days off for Grandy as a rest rather than a l/r thing. He’ll do more fresh and I think Lags is ready to step it up at the plate. But Conforto, Cespedes, Bruce…
I hope we are soon relieved of this log jam. They’re all potentially great hitters, I would have to say Yo is proven, Grandy as well. Bruce? Not yet in The Big Apple, but the guy has the tools. Lagares sometime seems the most expendable, although I think every Met fan I know says lose Bruce. All I know is I want to see Conforto in that lineup because I think he’s ready to rake.
Bruce is owed $13 million and then he’s gone.
Lagares is owed $20.5 million thru thru 2019 (including his buyout for 2020) before he’s gone.
If, and I stress the uncertainty of the word if, all he is is a singles-hitting defensive outfielder — would they better off attempting to move him than Bruce? If power really is not being valued in the current market, perhaps defense (and potential offensive upside) will be viewed more favorably?
If Lagares brings back a late-inning reliever while Bruce only brings back a low-leverage guy, does it make sense to deal the former? It might be something to consider.
I heard an interview with Dan Duquette yesterday who said they are a looking for a defensive minded OF to compliment the bats they have acquired. Lagares was the first person that came to mind.
Peter Borjous is available. Not giving up the only deference making glove on this team, especially in CF.
Alderson is a very patient GM and has never jumped at deals. I still believe that Bruce will be dealt but that will only unclog the OF not solve the CF issue. Curtis and Juan in center has a lot of good potential but only if Juan is not injured. We should be talking about the 6th or 7th spot in the lineup so the offense is a big plus but covering CF and keeping the Mets strong up the middle is critical. I hope the new 3B coach is already working with TDA or every walk or single will be in scoring position within 3-4 pitches and a single will produce a run almost every time. #biggerfishtofrythentheCFplatoon
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Aside from needing to unload Bruce, the second most-important aspect to maximizing production from our outfield is how Terry Collins handles the rotation. First, no one is going to start 162 games. Aside from rest days, double headers, AL games that require a DH, and inevitable injuries, there will be slumps. With five solid outfield options, not to mention depth in the infield as well, Collins needs to learn how to play the hot hand better. Last season there was a point when Flores was red hot and Collins was sitting him on the bench. That should not happen.
For the past 4 seasons the Mets’ average rank in team BA is 27th of 30 MLB teams. Granderson has batted below the team’s BA in 2 of his 3 seasons, so he is part of the problem, not the solution.
This FO’s failed, work-the-count, OBP offense philosophy results in dismal production as the team finished 137 R’s behind the Cubs in 2016. Granderson is the FO poster-boy for the failed offense approach, and unfortunately he will start somewhere in the OF.
The fact that Granderson is considered to start instead of Bruce or Lagares, means that this FO is conceding any chance at winning the division in 2017. Another WC might be achievable and we saw how that went..
Come join us in the 21st Century and look at something beyond batting average.
Sounds like a response from Alderson himself.
How about runs? 671 runs scored in 2016, down from 683 in 2015 when the FO had to obtain “professional hitters” at the trade dead-line to fix the dismal offense.
And by 2016 all of the guys that look to hit the ball instead of work-the-count (Byrd, Turner, Murphy, etc.) were already purged from the system. Until this FO abandons the failed, work-the-count, OBP philosophy of the 1990’s, the offense will remain dismal.
We already discussed why the runs were so poor last year.
The Mets had a once-in-a-generation results with RISP last year. They scored 50 fewer runs with RISP in 2016 than they did in 2015. Give them league average results in this category and they will have a top 5 offense in runs scored.
The analysis of the “once in a generation” results is based on OPS with RISP. I would be more interested in BA with RISP, not OBP/OPS.
And back to the first subject, a FO that views Granderson (.212 BA with RISP as a Met) as too valuable to trade, but discarded Murph (.319 lifetime BA with RISP), will continue to see dismal run results, more often than once in a generation.
You keep relying on AVG when OBP and OPS are far superior metrics. This isn’t even up for debate; it’s like saying that the world is flat.
There are things that rational people can disagree about. Metsense seemingly believes Juan Lagares can revert back to his 2013-2014 form on defense. I don’t think that’s in the realm of the likely but no one can rule it out.
We can, however, rule out AVG as a better offensive statistic than either OBP or OPS. Don’t take my word for it – read the archives at FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus or Beyond the Box Score. Just be aware that you’ll have to go back 10 years or so to find the relevant articles. Or better yet, read some of the Bill James abstracts from the 1980s.
Thanks. In my opinion walks and OBP are overvalued by many. As an example, a batter that drives in a runner from 3B with a sac fly reduces his OBP and OPS. If the same batter walked instead and the next batter hits into an inning-ending DP, the run doesn’t score but the first batter increased his OBP and OPS. I’ll take the guy that drives in the run.
Unfortunately this FO takes OBP to the extreme of discarding their best hitter with RISP over OBP ideology. Then they lament that the team can’t hit with RISP or score runs.
After the last 4 years, this FO’s inability to assemble a run-producing offense is not up for debate IMO.
That example that you use doesn’t happen enough to be a difference maker as a look at the run expectancy matrix will tell you.
Grandy had an just about an 800 ops 1st and 2nd half…. 23 Knocks in 470 ab;s versus RHP…. still runs the bases well…. covers the outfield (bad arm aside)… can wear a CF Glove
He’s a Great Guy…a wonderful baseball player…a Veteran….LH Pop…
How the heck can you question the fact that the FO sees him as Valuable???!!! He’s a really nice pplayer—every single contender should want him, or a guy very much like him. If they can keep him to around 450 ab’s, mostly versus RHP, he’s a great piece!!!
Lagares looked to be working on competing in more ab’s before he was injured. He’ll be just 28, but it’s getting harder to project growth if the next 200 ab’s don’t look different than his first 1500.
If he can be a 700-725 OPS, he would provide a very nice piece now and going forward—RH Bat, Speed, Defense. Getting from a Lifetime 664 OPS to 700 Plus is Not a Moonshot….but those 1500 ab’s might be telling you He Can’t..or he Won’t
Looked to be working on competing in more ABs? Wow, that’s, um, interesting.
The bottom line is that Lagares’ career high in OPS is .703 and he needed a .341 BABIP to achieve that. Yunel Escobar, no one’s idea of a good offensive player, had a .339 BABIP last year and a .746 OPS. I keep hoping that Lagares can add power to his game and be a Mike Cameron-type player. But that seems extremely optimistic.
Juan’s Lifetime BABIP is 315…MLB average BABIP is 300….Last year, he did a .274 BABIP and a 682 OPS—in a shortened season.
So… add 26 points to bring him to league average, and he’s at a 708 OPS… if you add 41 points to the ops (and bring him to His 1500 career ab BABIP average) you get to 723.
Why such a Condescending Response?… Frankly, I do think it’s Very Interesting! Juan can be an MLB Ball Player with good value… and yes, That’s what my eyes saw and that’s what his statistical trail indicates.
Let’s talk some baseball! I like the Guys who are talking baseball here…you included
The condescension comes from your “working on competing” line. That’s the equivalent of a participation medal.
The average NL center fielder had a .759 OPS last year so even after all of your adjustments, he’s still noticeably below average. If you go through that much work, I’d like to think you’d come up with something more worthwhile.
The Original Post referred to Lagares in a Platoon…. I stated my view on what Juan needs to do to Justify a meaningful roll going forward.
Working on More Competitive AB’s is not a Participation Award…the guy has giving away too many of his 1500 ab’s—and that’s a meaningful sample size that should hint that a player may have reached his Limits…and maybe not. I watched him last year, and I felt he had a somewhat improved approach— I believe his results present some argument for that.
I “Normed Out” his OPS— that’s probably a better method and a more realistic goal than hoping a 28 year old is going to Morph into a very different Hitter, per your own Mike Cameron Projection. I don’t believe Juan is “Mike Cameron or Bust”… and I do believe that there’s a realistic path to do what he does… Better! Again, “All of that work” to measure him against your original post referring to a Platoon worthy player—- sure, I’d prefer he become an Allstar….Mike Cameron!
If you want to celebrate a guy in his fourth year in the majors beginning to have competitive ABs – rock on. Just don’t be surprised when someone else doesn’t share your enthusiasm.
Lagares has to do something else besides what he’s done so far in the majors to be worthwhile, especially at his ever-increasing salary. He’s got pretty good exit velocities on his balls hit. Can he maintain those while trying to hit more balls in the air? Nobody knows at this point. But I maintain that his best chance of being productive is to trade AVG for power and hope his defense can stay at 2016 (or better) levels.
He went from a 31% FB rate in 2015 to a 35.3% rate last year. There were nine guys who had at least 50 PA for the Mets last year who had a FB rate in the 40s. My opinion is that’s what Lagares should be shooting for in 2017.
When did I celebrate? Like You, I’d like to use my own words to explain my own thoughts—similar to your own objections when people posting here re-frame your words with their own.
Brian I thought we were talking about a baseball player and the viability of using him in a platoon. You asked a poster last week whether He wanted to talk baseball or do something different…apparently, you were willing to do Either. I can only tell you that I want to discuss baseball.
I don;t get it.
I don’t see why you think we’re not talking about baseball. I really don’t.
You said — “Lagares looked to be working on competing in more ab’s before he was injured.”
I didn’t think a MLB player in his fourth year should be lauded for competing in more ABs.
What’s not baseball about that?
After I stated my objection to what you found encouraging, I went on to offer what I thought would make him worthwhile, how he needed to trade AVG for power. I even gave an example of the type of guy he should emulate in Mike Cameron. In his first year with the Mets, Cameron had a .231 AVG and 30 HR and with good defense was a true asset.
Again, what’s not baseball about that?
Any rational person would conclude that I’m talking baseball in every reply to you. It seems to me that you’re upset in that I don’t agree with you.
What happens if SA perceives that he cannot get from fair value for either Bruce or Granderson?
That probably means that the starting outfield would be Cespedes, Granderson and Bruce. A mid-season deal would be a possibility.
Could that mean that Conforto and Nimmo ( if he’s not moved) start the season in Vegas?
Does that mean that Lagares and Reyes/Rivera/Kelly start the season as the outfield reserves?
Too many questions while I ponder and wait for spring training. I go stir crazy like this every year.
If I said that the Mets could obtain a center fielder that has a war between 3 .7 – 5.5 would you sign him tomorrow? That was Juan Lagares in 2013 and 2014 when he was healthy. The object is to score more runs than the other team. Preventing a team from scoring accomplishes this. For whatever reason we dismiss War and the defensive aspects of it. Don’t trade Lagares because he may be our 2018 to 2020 solution in CF.
The bulk of Lagares’ value comes on defense and that’s okay if he can maintain it. He played more defensive innings in 2015 than any season in his career and had a 3.9 UZR/150 that season. That’s a far cry from what he put up in either 2013 or 2014. And while he made a defensive comeback last year in his limited time, it was still considerably below what he had posted previously.
Defense peaks earlier than offense and while the most logical thing would be to project Lagares to be a good defensive outfielder, you couldn’t predict him to match the 34.1 UZR/150 that he posted earlier. If he’s in the Kirk Nieuwenhuis class of outfielder, rather than the Kevin Kiermaier level, how much is that worth paying?
I’m okay with Lagares being on the team with his current skill set at his 2017 contract. But it gets harder to justify it when he keeps getting paid more, as he’s due for increases each year of his deal. If another team wants to pay more for Lagares than Bruce, I’m not going to suggest that we dismiss that out of hand because of his defense. Unless he changes drastically, he’s not a starting-caliber CF.
I’m not sure we have a disagreement on the Player. He’s 1500 ab’s in, and it’s not good enough…much less “Good”.
Maybe it’s a thin skinned Monday that I’m having
I apologize for contributing to a bad Monday as that was never my intent.
Lagares & Robles, Robles & Lagares…two homegrown Mets that need to play.
These are the types of players Mets have traded away in years past that have gone on to suceed in other unis. Robles could prove to be the 7th inning guy the BP needs day in and day out. Stuff is there. Lagares ? That’s a gold glover right there that can save games, runs, a pitcher’s best friend. This team is ‘pithcing 1st’. Lagares was hurt the past two years, in and out, etc. Sometimes he would play well one day, then TC put him on the bench the next. Major league coaches get paid too. The Mets need to coach the kid up to hit both lefties and righties well, get into the lineup more. The glove alone merits it. Braves of the 90’s and 2000’s one regularly with pitching and D. However, because Mets owe Grandy $15m cool ones, Lagares won’t see much light, all I am saying here is that he needs to see more of it. Nimmo is a good prospect, has some potential, but is also ideal trade bait if need be.
‘Pitching 1st’…
Speaking of Lagares…what is the update on his recent injury in winterball? Any news?
Nothing that I’m aware of since the original diagnosis – sprained shoulder, expected ready for start of ST
Everything I’m reading here tells me that Lagares is not well thought of. Not a single person has said that they expect a good year. But, I will.
I will state that Lagares will be a 5 WAR player at least. He will have his arm back, he is still only 27 and if defense peaks at 26, then he’s right there, and if 3.5 of that WAR is defense, it doesn’t matter. While everyone is down on Lagares, I remind that Granderson is 36 years old and it’s hard to expect him to get sustain in the most demanding defensive position on the field, much less improve. Granderson played just less than a month there and stated that it was taxing but he would do it for the team. But when the games start adding up, I’m afraid this 36 year old will not hold up. I would trade him while the value is up.
Last year on MLB Now, they had a segment where 26 year olds that had played several years were featured. It was their assertion that a player’s offensive improvement from age 26 to age 27 is better than any other maturation offensively from year to year. They pointed to players like Carlos Gomez, and just as I do a search, right on the front page:
http://www.scoutingbook.com/27/
There were 23 offensive players in MLB last year to post a 5.0 fWAR or greater.
My claim was to overall WAR, and I believe Lagares has the tools to do it and is reaching the age that hitters normally make a jump. It may be going out on a limb, but to quote a friend, “The best fruit is usually out on the limb”.
Yes, included in those 23 are people who were outstanding defensively last year.
There’s going out on a limb and there’s going out on a branch whose width is measured in millimeters. The limb you’re out on probably wouldn’t support a baby bird.
LOL, nor would it support fruit. It’d be too heavy.
Lagares had injury to contend with for two seasons as those injuries happened early in the season, so we really can’t weigh his number too heavily, just our eye analysis. I dont think that anyone can debate Lagares’ athletic ability and talent, the only thing we can debate is if he will ever master laying off the slider away.
Brian, I’ve actually warmed to Granny but the man was on average about a 1.8 WAR playing right field in three out of the the last four seasons, and last year it took a Herculian effort in September to get there. Too, it is a stretch to think he can stay healthy and strong in centerfield. But if he’s still a Met, then the platoon is all that is left with Lagares still getting some righties as Granny switches to left for Cespedes’ twelve games off.