Mets360 2017 projections: Jacob deGrom

It’s still a bit hard to believe what the Mets have with Jacob deGrom. No one considers his 2016 as especially great, yet through his first 21 starts of the season, he had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.050 WHIP and a 4.4 K/BB ratio. Then he struggled in his last three starts before winding up on the DL and ultimately having non-TJ elbow surgery.

For a comparison, Noah Syndergaard finished the year with a 2.60 ERA, a 1.149 WHIP and a 5.1 K/BB ratio. Is a healthy deGrom better than a healthy Syndergaard? Hopefully we find out in 2017. The expectation is that deGrom will start Spring Training with no special limitations. Here’s what our group expects him to do this year:

IP ERA Ks BB HR FIP Avg FBv
Dalton Allison 200 2.70 160 42 17 3.34 94.2
Joe Barbieri 174.3 3.21 179 45 18 3.26 94.1
John Fox 185 2.80 190 40 17 2.99 94.6
Charlie Hangley 167 2.91 181 37 7 2.24 94.5
Brian Joura 205 2.54 216 46 17 2.84 94.9
Mike Koehler 165 2.80 165 37 15 3.05 94.1
Matt Netter 205 2.45 210 48 13 2.68 94.0
Jim O’Malley 175 3.05 172 42 13 2.92 93.5
Rob Rogan 185 2.65 192 37 14 2.71 94.5
Mike Ryan 173 2.74 193 73 16 3.44 94.3
Chris Walendin 175 2.75 165 44 15 3.18 93.3

We expect him to pitch more innings than in 2016, when he finished with 148 IP. Charlie forecasts the fewest innings for deGrom with 167, while three guys see him reaching 200 IP. Also, we expect the velocity issues that plagued deGrom at the beginning of last year not to be an issue. In a somewhat related item, eight of our panel see a K/9 of 9.0 or greater. The forecast is somewhat similar to the one we had for Syndergaard, with a high ERA of 3.21 for deGrom (Joe) compared to a high of 3.17 for Syndergaard.

Here’s what the group thinks deGrom will do in 2017:

deGrom2017

Our group forecast is almost identical for these first two pitchers. We forecast both Syndergaard and deGrom to finish with identical 2.75 ERAs but with Syndergaard finishing with 12 more innings. Meanwhile, we’re up to 27 teams with their ZiPS forecasts released on FanGraphs but still no Mets. So, let’s compare the Mets360 projections with Steamer:

IP ERA Ks BB HR FIP
Mets360 182.7 2.75 184 45 15 2.99
Steamer 190 3.49 187 49 21 3.44

Our innings forecast is right in line with the computer model, but Steamer shows both a higher ERA and FIP. The biggest reason is that Steamer expects him to allow more homers. The other big difference is we expect deGrom to outperform his peripherals while Steamer does not.

Check back Wednesday for our next projection.

3 comments for “Mets360 2017 projections: Jacob deGrom

  1. JIMO
    January 31, 2017 at 4:04 pm

    Lets go deGrom!!

  2. Metsense
    February 10, 2017 at 7:02 am

    176 IP, 3.20 ERA, 171 K, 43 BB, 18 HR, FIP 3.31 Avg FB 93.8
    deGrom used to be dominant, “The Degrominator”, most of the time but his reduced velocity has reduced the amount of dominating games he will have when he was an elite starter with the put away fastball. I still believe that deGrom is still a #1 starter but more like the 14th or 15th best starter in the National League. He really knows how to “pitch” and has the fortitude is pitch very well even on days he doesn’t have his best stuff.

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