2017 Mets as viewed by an optimist, pessimist, and realist

Given all the questions surrounding the Mets – key contributors coming back from injuries and off seasons, the outfield logjam, etc – it’s not easy to objectively predict what the 2017 season has in store for them. Here are some predictions from three perspectives.

The 2017 Mets – the Rose Colored Glasses Edition

The Mets are led by the best rotation in baseball. Noah Syndergaard continues his dominance, while Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom return to full health, giving the Mets three Cy Young contenders with 30-plus starts, sub-3 ERAs, and 200-plus strikeouts. Number four starter Steven Matz chips in a strong season of his own with 25 starts and an ERA just north of 3.00.  The fifth rotation spot gets filled in the short term by Robert Gsellman, while Zack Wheeler spends April and May mowing batters down from middle relief. Gsellman holds his own with an ERA in the high 3s before giving way to Wheeler, who reestablishes himself as an intimidating power pitcher.

The bullpen, led by Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, Fernando Salas, Jerry Blevins and Hansel Robles, does their job of holding leads and keeping games close.  Josh Smoker, Josh Edgin, Erik Goeddel, and Seth Lugo shuttle between Las Vegas and Citi Field to keep arms fresh.

The lineup runs hot and cold with power streaks and slumps and a few injuries, but Terry Collins deftly uses his deep bench to keep the runs coming. David Wright plays somewhat sparingly, but stays healthy and surprisingly productive, contributing a .285 average with a fair share of walks and doubles. Jose Reyes plays about half the games at third, while also seeing time at short and second. Overall, he proves his value as a leadoff hitter with a .330 OBP, 28 steals, and 100 runs scored. Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker again provide a smooth double play combo while each smacking 20 home runs. Lucas Duda bounces back with 25 home runs, mostly against right-handed pitchers, while his platoon partner, Wilmer Flores, clobbers the lefties.

Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares both stay healthy and return to form, while the ageless Curtis Granderson enjoys another healthy, productive season. Yoenis Cespedes has an MVP caliber season with 40 home runs and 120 RBI. Hitting behind him in the lineup, Jay Bruce starts off hot, but is traded to make way for Michael Conforto, who after hitting over .400 in Las Vegas, comes back to Citi Field to rip doubles off the wall and play a solid right field. Rene Rivera, Brandon Nimmo, and TJ Rivera provide additional rest and spark off the bench.

By September 1, the Mets are entrenched in first place as the Nationals can’t overcome a weak bullpen, top heavy lineup, and lack of rotation depth to keep it close. Behind stellar pitching, the Mets finish with a league best 105 wins and secure home field advantage in the playoffs. After knocking out the Wild Card winning Giants, and then the Cubs, the Mets face off with the Indians in the World Series in a pitching heavy matchup that harkens back to the late 1960s. The Mets win in five games and New York City throws the team its first ticker tape parade in 31 years.

The 2017 Mets – the Glass Half Empty Edition

While a repeat of last season’s injury epidemic seems implausible, there’s always a possibility that some of the key players don’t in fact bounce back. It’s not hard to imagine at least one, if not two, of the infielders returning from significant back injuries to either miss significant time or struggle to regain their swings. Likewise, its hardly a stretch to imagine injury prone guys like d’Arnaud, Lagares, Matz, and Wheeler spending stretches of the season on the disabled list.

The Mets have better depth to overcome injuries and slumps than they’ve had in years, but there’s always the possibility that Collins doesn’t utilize the bench the right way and stubbornly has veterans playing through slumps and injuries while other guys rot on the bench or down in AAA.

Maybe deGrom’s velocity issue wasn’t a blip and maybe Harvey never again rises as the Dark Knight, and just maybe, it’s Syndergaard’s turn to blow out his arm. The Mets have some depth behind their starting five, but not a lot. Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, Logan Verrett, and Gabriel Ynoa are all gone. Beyond Gsellman and Lugo, the next in line is Rafael Montero, who seems to have lost track of the strike zone. The depth at catcher is similarly unnerving as Kevin Plawecki is yet to show he can hit Major League pitching.

These types of injuries and struggles prove hard enough to overcome, but the nail in the coffin is an injury to Cespedes. Without his bat in the lineup, the team really struggles to score runs.

The Mets struggle to hover around .500 all season and miss the playoffs with a disappointing 79-83 record.  Although Sandy Alderson is clearly to blame for ignoring the catching needs and not having enough pitching depth, Collins pays the price and loses his job at season’s end.

The 2017 Mets – the Realistic View

Realistically, not everyone is going to get injured and not every returning player is going to struggle. This team has the depth to overcome injuries and it has the potential to win a lot of games on pitching alone. Realistically, the difference between a disappointing season and a third consecutive playoffs, is a healthy rotation. A huge, but unheralded part of the Cubs success last season was their rotation health. Their starting five each gave them a minimum of 29 starts for a combined total of 152. If the Mets get anywhere near that type of health and production, we’ll be in great shape.

Our fate also relies on the performance of the other contenting National League teams – namely the Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals and Giants, and to a lesser extent, the Pirates, Cardinals, and Diamondbacks. They all have question marks too, but like the Mets, if they stay healthy, get a few career years and lucky breaks along the way, they’ve got a shot to go all the way.  As the saying goes, hope springs eternal.

10 comments for “2017 Mets as viewed by an optimist, pessimist, and realist

  1. Jimmy P
    February 17, 2017 at 10:12 am

    The only question for me is NL East Champs or not.

    Do they top the Nationals?

    I don’t have a strong feeling yet, but it’s only February.

  2. BK
    February 17, 2017 at 10:39 am

    As a life-long Mets fan, it’s not surprising I skimmed the “half-full” section and focused on the “half-empty” section. But since you brought up the catching situation, since TDA isn’t a given to play a full season and Plawecki can’t hit, why not make a run at Matt Wieters? He has no job, doesn’t require draft pick compensation. I’ve never thought hat highly of him, but on a one year plus option “show me” contract, what’s the harm? Plus it keeps the Nationals from signing him.

    • MattyMets
      February 17, 2017 at 12:11 pm

      At least 10 teams could upgrade at catcher with Weiters. My guess is Boras is holding out for money. Given his injury history and recent performance, how much is he really worth?

      • BK
        February 17, 2017 at 1:00 pm

        10 teams may need him but right now his market is bupkus. The Mets should make an offer.

  3. February 17, 2017 at 12:08 pm

    At one time, we heard “meaningful games in September.” Right now my goal is a healthy team before late August.

  4. Mike Walczak
    February 18, 2017 at 12:11 am

    The biggest loss was our solid reliable Bartolo Colon who won 15 games. That is tough to replace. Problem is, that Harvey, deGrom, Matz and Wheeler will be on limited innings So, who pitches in September ? Can we rely on magic again from Gsellman and Lugo ? What happens if they make the playoffs. What will Mets brass say about the extra innings above the innings limits for the playoffs ? The Mets will have to have a big lead by September if they want to hold on.

  5. TexasGusCC
    February 18, 2017 at 10:23 am

    Matt, in reading the second paragraph of your half-empty segment, what if Collins in fact does that. How long does Alderson let him piss away one of the deepest teams Alderson has put together?

    • Chris F
      February 18, 2017 at 11:23 am

      Zero chance Gus. Im sorry to say. Besides, there’s no one out there right now who could replace him easily.

    • Jimmy P
      February 18, 2017 at 11:28 am

      Many brilliant, accomplished managers play veterans through slumps. Knowing when to pull the plug is tough, but yanking around ballplayers would be a major mistake. It’s a 162-game season, filled with ups and downs and slumps and streaks. Mostly players benefit from a steady hand that does not over-react to small sample sizes. You don’t get the hot streak unless you live through the cold streak. Of course, it’s a nuanced issue, filled with gray area, but I disagree with the general, oft-stated notion of riding the “hot player.” Sounds good, but I just don’t think that’s real baseball.

      • TexasGusCC
        February 18, 2017 at 11:52 pm

        There are ways of protecting the team that Collins will never think of. Heck, Collins won’t even think of challenging the tying run at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. But I digress…
        When a player has been in a month long funk, and he hasn’t been rested a little bit extra or dropped down, then…
        Anyway, I was just musing…

        BTW Jimmy, did you really compare Collins to “many brilliant, accomplished managers”? As my nephew would say, ROFL!!

Leave a Reply to Jimmy P Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

%d bloggers like this: