Injury concerns for the 2017 Mets

disabled listThe Mets have a lot of injury concerns. These can show up in at least two different ways. One, is the player healthy enough to get on the field? Two, if he is healthy, will he be able to perform at previous established levels? There are no easy answers; all we have are opinions. Here are mine with regards to the question marks.

Travis d’Arnaud – Based on 2013-15 seasons
Play 120 games – 30%
Achieve .722 OPS – 65%

Lucas Duda – Based on 2014-15 seasons
Play 144 games – 33%
Achieve .834 OPS – 75%

Neil Walker – Based on 2011-15 seasons
Play 142 games – 60%
Achieve .765 OPS – 80%

David Wright – Based on 2014-16 seasons
Play 75 games – 25%
Achieve .735 OPS – 75%

Matt Harvey – Based on 2013, 2015-16 seasons
Start 24 games – 60%
Achieve 127 ERA+ – 60%

Jacob deGrom – Based on 2014-2016
Start 25 games – 75%
Achieve 138 ERA+ – 70%

Steven Matz – Based on 2015-16 seasons
Start 28 games – 40%
Achieve 128 ERA+ – 65%

Zack Wheeler – Pulling numbers out of the air
Start 12 games – 25%
Achieve 100 ERA+ – 65%

D’Arnaud’s games played is based on the expectation for a full season from a backstop. Wright’s total was what he played the previous two seasons added together. Matz’ starts based on adding together what he did the past two years.

12 comments for “Injury concerns for the 2017 Mets

  1. TexasGusCC
    February 16, 2017 at 10:07 am

    Brian, I don’t follow why you are using previous years’ numbers when most of these players mentioned didn’t have the ailment they now need to overcome back then.

    But, of the hitters the one I feel most comfortable with is TDA returning to full form. I’m thinking Duda and Walker will have flair-ups from time to time, and Wright is just hanging out now. When a baseball player isn’t ready to at least toss a ball, at any time in his life, he lost his edge. I have mentioned to you guys that I know a former MLB player down here, Bart Shirley. One day a few years ago when I asked him about the impact of hitting coaches, right there in the middle of the restaurant he jumped into his batting stance and explained to me what a hitting coach can do. Players are mentally ready every minute of their lives, but Wright hasn’t even lifted his hand over his shoulder yet? Um, David, what are you worried about? That it will hurt? He reminds me of the Tom Cruise character in Days of Thunder: When he wrecks and is now scared about his life rather than going full bore like before. Similar to his Top Gun character’s dilemma.

    Of the pitchers, deGrom is the one for me. I don’t know how Harvey will rebound; Warthen said yesterday that Wheeler is considered to start 25 games at 5 innings per game and be shut down; and until Matz can pitch 200 innings in one year his arm will always be a concern. I can’t let him go, but if anyone gives a good offer…

    • February 16, 2017 at 10:13 am

      You can come back and be on the field. But can you come back and be at the field at your previous level? It’s wonderful if Duda comes back and plays 140 games. But it’s not so hot if he plays 140 games and puts up a .710 OPS.

      • TexasGusCC
        February 16, 2017 at 8:05 pm

        oh ok. Thanks. That being the case, I’m very pessimistic as everyone else is on David, even though I love the guy as a Mets fan, and I’m somewhat pessimistic about Matz. To reach 28 starts, he will have to reach somewhere around 180 innings and he has never passed 151. On all the others, I am optimistic about. Especially if Wheeler is only expected to pitch 5 innings.

    • Jimmy P
      February 16, 2017 at 10:18 am

      Gus, I don’t see David’s problems as being psychological in any way whatsoever. I don’t get the “scared” comparison. He’s not afraid that it will hurt. The neck surgery was no joke. As he’s explained, there’s nothing you can do except to let it heal. You can’t work your way through it.

      I believe strongly he’s got serious physical issues. Real ones.

      I hate to see his character impugned. This isn’t about the weakness of his mind or spirit.

      • Chris F
        February 16, 2017 at 10:46 am

        I totally agree. If anything Wright has the reverse of that problem: he is physically incapable but willing to throw all the power of his mind to get through pain just to try to play. Every Mets fan, and pretty much baseball fans in general, thinks the world of Wright. He is the embodiment of all the characters you hope for in a player. And he holds more records for a position player than anyone in Mets history. I think it is safe to say, he will be the ambassador for the team for decades to come.

        And that is what makes talking the hard talk very very difficult. When someone has committed his career on top of risking severe injury just to be between the lines speaks volumes. It seems the FO is willing to let him try to play the experiment out to its conclusion. I just hope there becomes a threshold the FO says: David, enough is enough.

      • TexasGusCC
        February 16, 2017 at 8:31 pm

        Well gentlemen, I was actually giving him the benefit of the doubt when I was wondering why he hasn’t even tried to lob a ball. However, if he really is physically unable to throw, like I said to Brian, I love David as a player but ‘buddy, if it hurts to even try throwing what are you doing to yourself?’

        Many have compared Manning to Wright because the surgeries were similar, but throwing a football is harder than a baseball; it’s bigger and heavier with more air resistance. If David can’t throw a baseball 120 feet, that for me is like the force of a 12-15 yard throw for Manning (he sets up five yards behind the line of scrimmage, thus 60 feet in total). Obviously, David would then be considered more injured than Manning was because Manning couldn’t throw the bomb but he could toss it down the middle.

  2. Jimmy P
    February 16, 2017 at 10:11 am

    Okay, injury concerns, a few worst-case scenarios that are not far-fetched:

    1) Harvey doesn’t bounce fully back. The velocity doesn’t return all the way. He’s up and down but not, you know, Matt Harvey.

    2) Wheeler just doesn’t have it.

    3) Matz is Matz and simply doesn’t have the body/arm/shoulder to make it through the grind. The rested shoulder just isn’t right.

    4) Duda’s missed season, and lingering back issues, make him a pale duplicate of his former self.

    5) Wright does not go on the DL. He plays poorly on defense, the offense is spotty (a mistake hitter only), and it gets very, very awkward.

    6) Travis gets nicked up, banged around, and never gets untracked. We are reminded that Rivera can’t hit a lick.

    7) Those are the obvious candidates. Beyond that — not really concerns — but just an awareness that random injuries occur for no reason. Previously healthy player walks off a curb, gets into a cab, settles under an infield pop fly. Out for the season.

    In general, I think the Mets have good depth. I believe, however, the entire season is predicated on the starting rotation being great, not merely very good. I’d love to see Harvey be the Dark Knight again; and as Eraff said earlier, it would be awesome if Matz can give us 30 starts. If healthy, he could have a dominant season. I’m very hopeful about Syndergaard and DeGrom, Reed and Familia. And like many of you, I have a hunch that Gsellman will continue to perform. As the old scouts say, he has the face.

  3. Chris F
    February 16, 2017 at 10:54 am

    1. David Wright for all the reasons we know. Its a major question, but not vastly critical, becuase Reyes is better at 3B now anyway.
    2. Noah Syndergaard. The only starter with no leash at all. He said he will not cut down on velo in ST and wants to throw harder than 98. This feels like a recipe for trouble. Can a linebacker also be a pitcher?
    of course he may be a real threat to everyone without throwing:
    https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/831935034370248719
    3. All remaining pitchers, starting and relieving.
    4. Asdrubel Cabrera. Last years team MVP would leave a giant hole if that knee becomes an issue again.

  4. NormE
    February 16, 2017 at 12:15 pm

    Based on his track record of the last few years you should add Jose Reyes to the list of injury concerns. With Jose penciled in as DW’s back-up/replacement it would seem that the Mets may have to look at moving someone (Walker, Rivera, Flores) over to work at the hot corner. I hope it’s not Flores. I’ve seen enough of him to feel very uncomfortable with him at 3rd or SS. I’d feel a little better if the Mets would sign Kelly Johnson again.

    • Jimmy P
      February 16, 2017 at 1:18 pm

      Cabrera should be at 3B anyway, IMO.

      My hope is that Rosario thrives in Vegas and can be called up as soon as July to become everyday SS if needed.

  5. Eraff
    February 17, 2017 at 4:00 am

    Sandy re-signed his Bell Cow and deferred most of the big decisions about personnel and health.

    I’d have preferred that 2 of 3 of Duda, Bruce, Walker had been jettisoned, but the rest of the off-season was about conserving assets and flexibility. Cheech and Rivera (and Flores) are “Ready or Not” depth/assets

    They need an “any 3 healthy Starting Pitchers” result to move forward and compete… everything else can be solved as it evolves.

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