Last year, the suspension for Aroldis Chapman for his domestic violence case was handed out on March 1. Here it is March 21 and we’re still waiting for a decision to be announced on Jeurys Familia. You can say that the league didn’t want to take away from the World Baseball Classic but now that the Dominican Republic has been eliminated, there’s no reason to wait any longer. At the very least, let’s hope that the Commissioner’s office has notified the Mets’ brass and they know what the deal is.
Most of us have been operating under the assumption that Familia will get the same month-long suspension that Chapman did. Someone will have to get Saves while Familia is unable to go and the assumption is that Addison Reed, who was so good last year, will pick up the slack. So, here are our individual forecasts for both Familia and Reed:
We all see Familia pitching quite well when he gets to the mound; there’s just a difference over how many Save opportunities he will receive. Joe sees him picking up 31 Saves this year while Matt has a projection of 45. In perhaps a bit of a surprise, four of our 11-person panel feel he’s going to crack 40 Saves again this season.
There’s more variance among our group when it comes to Reed. Most of us feel he’ll turn in another strong performance, with Mike K’s 2.15 ERA leading the charge for the optimists. Yet three guys feel his ERA will top three, with Joe’s 3.59 being the most bearish. This time last year that wouldn’t have seemed bearish at all. But since becoming a Met, Reed has a 1.84 ERA and a 0.957 WHIP in 93 IP.
Here are our official forecasts for both pitchers:
If the Mets get these performances from their top two relievers, the bullpen should be a strong point again. Here’s what the computer models project:
Ours are the most optimistic with ERA. We also have the best WHIP but not by any obscene amount. And combining the two pitchers together, we are in the middle in Saves. The computers don’t realize a suspension is a strong possibility. Steamer has 40 Saves, we have 48 and ZiPS has 56.