The Mets have a half a dozen guys on the disabled list, the pitching is in shambles, the infield defense is terrible and the general manager has all but admitted that half the team is available in trades. Meanwhile, the team is playing its best baseball of the season. In their last 23 games, the Mets are 14-9, including 6-3 since the All-Star break.

Sandy Alderson is seemingly never in a hurry to do anything. Conventional wisdom said that the players the Mets are offering for trade were most teams Plan B, which is why when other teams like the White Sox and A’s have already made moves, the Mets have yet to do so. We can debate whether or not that’s true or if it’s more likely that Alderson is waiting for the 30 or 31 to make a deal.

Yet it’s possible that inertia or waiting their turn may transform the Mets from sellers into buyers.

The shouts of disbelief can be heard all over the land. After all, the Mets are still five games under .500, are 10 games back of the second Wild Card and have four teams ahead of them in the chase. According to FanGraphs, they have just an 8.8% chance of making the playoffs. When the odds are stacked against you to this degree, the smart play is to aim for next year and try to get whatever return for assets that are unlikely to be here in 2018 that you can.

Still, we’ve seen this team come back from the dead both of the past two seasons. Neither of the Wild Card leaders are playing particularly good at this point in time, with the Diamondbacks riding a 6-13 stretch and the Rockies checking in at 10-16. One of the teams ahead of them in the chase may end up winning the N.L. Central and the Mets still have seven games remaining against the Braves, who they already have a 7-5 record against, including wins in their last three games.

After today’s game against the 43-54 A’s, the Mets have a four-game set against the 42-55 Padres and three more against the 49-50 Mariners. That’s eight games against sub .500 teams before the trade deadline. With the way this season has gone, no record from 0-8 to 8-0 would be a surprise here. Well, maybe 8-0 would be a surprise. Still, it’s easy to see why there’s no rush in the front office to pull the trigger on a deal.

This administration, whether on orders from the owners or of their own beliefs, has never embraced the idea of tanking and trying to get the best draft pick it could get. In seven drafts under Alderson, the Mets have never had a pick lower than 10. Of course, that’s the year they ended up selecting Michael Conforto, which makes it easier for fans to endorse the concept of punting this season and focusing on the future.

Additionally, while the schedule appears favorable, we can’t overlook the fact that the next seven games after today are on the West Coast. This year the Mets are 5-13 when playing a road game outside the Eastern Time zone. It doesn’t inspire confidence that the Mets will ride out of either San Diego or Seattle with their brooms held high.

The final Seattle game is on July 30, which allows the team to wait until then before making a final decision on the 2017 season. The question becomes: What’s the minimum record needed to keep faint hopes alive? If the Mets sweep their next eight games, they are three games over .500 and 7-1 still leaves them with a winning record. The optimists will point out that the team was 60-62 last year and still wound up winning 87 games. A 15-12 record over their next 27 games will have them at that point.

Most rational people would not look at the team as currently constructed as a potential playoff squad. But Neil Walker is expected back Monday and as weird as that sounds, he might make the infield defense better. Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard have all started throwing programs and could be back in late August. If Syndergaard were to replace a struggling starter and Familia a gas can reliever – that would be a tremendous upgrade.

But that still leaves a month with the likes of Rafael Montero and Zack Wheeler starting along with Fernando Salas and Josh Smoker coming in out of the pen. Which is why a winning record over their next eight games might make being buyers make sense. Acquiring a competent starter and/or a competent reliever – and not the memories of a competent pitcher, either – could help bridge the gap.

Recently, we saw a rare prospect for prospect mid-season deal between the Mariners and Cardinals. It’s at least theoretically possible that a team could need a hitter and offer up a serviceable bullpen arm in return. We’ve heard the Mets and Red Sox as potential trade partners. Could an Asdrubal CabreraBrandon Workman deal be a fit for both sides? Could Jay Bruce + cash net a starter who could go seven innings?

The offense has put up 53 runs in nine games here in the second half and should be able to handle the loss of a current regular to upgrade the pitching, especially with Walker on the way back and the potential of an Amed Rosario promotion, too. We saw Conforto promoted in late July and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Rosario on a similar time schedule, although a finger injury may push that back some.

So, for me personally, there’s no urgency to make a move here on July 23. My preference is to see how the next eight games play out. A losing record and my voice will be added to the chorus of those who want to trade everyone and regroup for next year. But my preference is to make the current season count if at all possible. Which is why even with a scant 8.8% chance of making the playoffs, you won’t see me embrace tanking.

At least not yet.

8 comments on “Mets playing their best baseball of 2017 as trade deadline looms

  • Edwin E Pena

    It’s never easy with the Mets ! If they sweep today vs A’s and then beat up a bad Padres team, then it will bring optimism and Sandy could possibly hold back from making moves. This will be a mistake. The East is over and done with and the WC is just too challenging this year, too many teams. Cabrera, Walker, Grandy, Duda all need to go. Reed is such a good trade chip and will be expensive to retain, so he will be gone as well. d’Arnaud hopefully keeps building his BA up, maybe to .250 and get rid of him as well. Plawecki and Rivera can finish the year. Wish the Mets would keep Bruce, but he too will need to go as the team builds for long term and want Conforto in RF vs CF. To not make these moves and keep all these guys who will leave anyway, is really a long term mistake by the man responsible for roster moves – Sandy. I don’t think he blows the chance to get 3-4 bodies that can help in 2018 and into the future. Mets, for all that was a disaster this year, still will have a good core of 15 players next year and beyond: Thor, Degrom, Matz, Wheeler, Familia, Blevins, Sewald, Conforto, Cespedes, Rosario, D.Smith, Flores, TJ Rivera, Lagares, Nimmo.
    Add 3-4 goodies to this group that can contribute and you have a decent roster going forward. Making a WC this year is just a pipe dream and should not be the focus, even if the team gets to .500. Who knows, if the team makes the few trades and brings up the youngsters and that group charges to a WC finish ??
    Wouldn’t that be something !

  • Metsense

    The pitching is what failed them this year. The inconsistent starting pitching has made it difficult to make up ground. The relief core is not good enough to protect leads for the next two months. The offense is fine and with Walker coming back and if Cespedes comes out of his power slump then they afford to trade their rental players of Granderson or Bruce, Duda and Cabrera and flip them for a relief pitcher and starting pitcher. It is extremely difficult to imagine that Sandy could pull miracle trades like this off because they don’t usually happen mid season. I am an optimistic Met fan but the emphasis should be on 2018 while crossing our fingers that the current streak can continue.

  • Matty Mets

    Brian – Has my optimism rubbed off on you?

  • Andy Matejka

    With a big road trip coming up and the team playing good baseball now, there is still a great chance to get back in position for a strong run/finish to the season in order to be in playoff contention.

    So don’t give up now and just dig deeper!

    Let’s go Mets!!

  • NormE

    I believe that the Mets, by making another late season run at a WC spot are putting off the inevitable. The World Series appearance in 2015 exposed the team as poorly constructed—but making the WS was excuse enough to keep the basic structure in place. The improbable WC placement in 2016 just perpetuated the excuse.
    What is truly needed is new FO leadership to bring a fresh perspective to the construction of the team, its scouting and drafting. The same fresh perspective is needed for the field level.
    I know that it is easy to be critical, but it would take too long a comment to go through each position. Some parts of the team are worthy of a contender, but it is not unfair to think that a reconstruction is needed. It is unfair to think that this can be done overnight.
    Patience and fresh blood from top to bottom are in order.

  • Chris B

    I’m on board Brian. I can see the Mets being in a similar situation to the Yanks this time last year. On a weird cusp of competing and selling.

    They’re hitting so well with reinforcements on the mound coming! Ya gotta believe.

  • Jimmy P

    I do not believe in this group.

  • Eraff

    A slow deadline-trade market may be an outgrowth of how top heavy the game is—- a handful of “way good” teams and a somewhat small group of un inspiring contenders (especially in the NL). There will probably be less teams adding pieces because of tamp downed hope.

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