In my Top 50 Prospect rankings I ranked Peter Alonso 9th overall. His 2016 numbers in Brooklyn had somehow eclipsed those of even Michael Conforto. Based on those 30 games and his high draft pick status, 9th overall seemed like a fitting place for the former University of Florida player.
After a dismal start, exacerbated by injury, Alonso did not look like much of a Top 10 prospect. He only managed to play in 11 games between April and May and did little to show himself off as a prospect.
Healthy again in June, he took some time to find his footing but began to hit again. Now in July he’s once again showing us the power that impressed in Brooklyn and has been hitting the baseball every which way. Take a look at the progression below:
|2017 (After May)||43||.288||.361||.558||10||12||36|
One thing you may note as a negative is that Alonso does still strike out in roughly 80% of the games he plays and doesn’t have great patience at the plate. You might also note that his Home Run rate has improved from Brooklyn which does line up with the fact that Port St. Lucie is a better hitting environment than Brooklyn.
All this together mostly indicates that Alonso will start the 2018 season in AA and be on the radar for the Mets team in 2019.
Where does that leave Dominic Smith?
Smith has been on a hitting tear the past couple of weeks, a trend that matches his production lines throughout his minor league career, and it seems likely that the Mets will allow Lucas Duda to leave and allow their current top first base prospect, Smith, to replace him.
With that said, there are many Met fans who are not hot on their prospect and his results in AAA given the league’s obvious tendency to favor hitters and power. That being said, Smith ranks in the Top 25 for Batting Average (9th), On Base Percentage (18th) and Slugging Percentage (24th) which would indicate that he is still producing at the level you’d look for in a “Top Prospect.”
Diving down further, it would appear that fans might be more down on Smith because of an anemic June. While he did hit .324 in the Month of June his slugging percentage went down to .401 which is pretty poor. His SLG, so far, for the month of July is a robust .704 which is much more appetizing. Also, while his BABIP is high, it seems in line with the stats from his previous season.
Based on Smith’s projections from previous minor league performances we can expect a period of adjustment for him in the majors but I do not believe there is as much call for doom and gloom as other fans.
Assuming Smith does well and Alonso maintains his current pace it will be most intriguing to see what the Mets do with the defensively limited prospects.
AAA: Las Vegas 51s
Amed Rosario has an impressive week – Hitting .435 for the last 10 games is pretty impressive.
Kevin Plawecki is AAAA at least – He’s got a .900 OPS in AAA but doesn’t seem to translate that well to the majors.
AA: Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Chris Flexen sparkles – He’s been great in AA this whole season and should factor into the Top 10 prospect discussion.
P.J. Conlon back on track – He’s got two solid starts since his 5 ER glitch.
Corey Oswalt strikeouts down – Oswalt has some very good pitches but he’s not striking out as many batters as you’d expect him to.
A+: Port St. Lucie Mets
Justin Dunn set to repeat Advanced A – He’s not done anything to convince the Met management that he’s ready.
Nabil Crismatt should be promoted – He’s done enough to get advanced to AA.
Jordan Humphreys hasn’t pitched since 6/30
Merandy Gonzalez ready for AA? – He’s handled the transition to Advanced A so well that he could be ready to go farther soon.
Tim Tebow excels after promotion – Still plenty of flaws and he’s still a decade too old but he’s done well at this level.
A: Columbia Fireflies
Desmond Lindsay back in the lineup – He’s hitting .333 over his last 10 games in a desperate bid to salvage this season.
Thomas Szapucki Tommy John Surgery
R2: Kingsport Mets
Rigoberto Terrazas is shining – His .929 OPS should earn him a spot in the Cyclone lineup sooner than later.
Wagner LaGrange also doing well – The older DSL prospects have been doing very nicely in Rookie Ball.
Jeremy Vasquez has power – He has 6 home runs and 7 doubles in 25 games.
Hansel Moreno looks good – He’s a little younger than most of his DSL compatriots but he’s also proving to be a capable hitter.
Christian James is the pitching story – While there are plenty of names hitting well in Kingsport, James is the big story on the pitching side.
R1: GCL Mets
Guillermo Granadillo has lots of tools – He’s hit for some power and already has stolen 9 bases.