Mets360 2017 projection review: Jacob deGrom

Today we start off our series recapping our preseason projections.  I enjoy going back and looking at the hits and misses of our forecasts.  Please keep in mind that none of us claim any expertise in the projection area.  The hope is that with having multiple people involved that our group forecast will be as accurate as the big boys.  Let’s start with Jacob deGrom, the only pitcher among the seven guys counted on for starts to remain healthy and in the majors all season.  Here was our official projection:

IP – 182.7
ERA – 2.75
Ks – 184
BB – 45
HR – 12
FIP – 2.99
AVG FB MPH – 94.2

Here’s how deGrom actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.

IP – 201.1
Best – Allison (200)
Worst – Koehler (165)

ERA – 3.53
Best – Barbieri (3.21)
Worst – Netter (2.45)

Ks – 239
Best – Joura (216)
Worst – Allison (160)

BB – 59
Best – Netter (48)
Worst – Hangley, Rogan (37)

HR – 28
Best – Barbieri (18)
Worst – Hangley (7)

FIP – 3.50
Best – Ryan (3.44)
Worst – Hangley (2.24)

AVG FB MPH – 95.2
Best – Joura (94.9)
Worst – Walendin (93.3)

It wasn’t the greatest forecast ever but we didn’t correctly forecast the HR environment and everything is skewed because of that.  We had him outpitching his peripherals but he matched them almost exactly.  Overall, the forecast would have looked better if the season ended on August 10, as after that game deGrom had a 3.21 ERA.  But over his last eight starts of the year, he had a 4.50 ERA, as he was knocked around in three starts in that span, including a shocking outing where he gave up 10 hits and 9 R (6 ER) in 3.2 IP on 9/5 against the Phillies.

I’m not sure if it makes sense to do a projection recap for any other pitcher due to the injuries.  Perhaps Robert Gsellman, since he stayed healthy but had to deal with bullpen and minor league assignments throughout the year.

 

9 comments for “Mets360 2017 projection review: Jacob deGrom

  1. Eraff
    October 4, 2017 at 12:14 pm

    Based on how I feel now, the recap reviews will just confirm the pain

  2. Chris F
    October 4, 2017 at 2:05 pm

    This whole review exercise is gonna be hard.

    I guess Reyes and Cabrera (and TdA?) are about the only 2 that will have a years worth of results.

    Did you guys do a projection on Collins:
    # of relief calls
    # of days used back to back
    # of LOOGYs
    IP by SP v IP by RP

    Would be fascinating!

  3. Steevy
    October 4, 2017 at 2:50 pm

    I was surprised to see only 7 pitchers in the entire NL threw at least 200 innings.

    • October 4, 2017 at 3:36 pm

      NL Pitchers with at least 200 IP:

      2014 – 34
      2015 – 28
      2016 – 15
      2017 – 7

      • Chris F
        October 4, 2017 at 3:45 pm

        If that doesn’t bring tears to your eyes, nothing will.

        Maybe the starter goes 4. Then we expand the rosters to 40, so we can play Sept baseball all year

      • Name
        October 4, 2017 at 6:09 pm

        You seem to have made a mistake and counted both leagues except for 2017.

        2014- 14
        2015-12
        2016-6
        2017-7

        Here’s the number of NL starters who made 30+ starts

        2014-36
        2015-33
        2016-27
        2017-23

        So from 2014 to 2017 we’ve seen a 50% drop (14 to 7) in starters going 200+. Of that drop, 72% can be attributed to declining health (36 to 23) and the other 28% is because of HR problem

  4. Metsense
    October 4, 2017 at 10:54 pm

    deGrom had a very good season but not to the standard he set in the first three years of his career. His control diminished which resulted in more walks and the diminished command led to pitches missing their spots resulting in more home runs. In six games he gave up five or more earned runs. Prior to this year, he had only done that three times in any season. He still was a top 15 NL pitcher.
    Matz had the same surgery as deGrom this year. Hopefully Matz will recover and only experience a slight regression like Jacob did.

    • Jimmy P
      October 5, 2017 at 8:28 am

      In the Spring, I think several of us had hopes that both Jake and Noah would compete for the Cy Young. The hope was that he’d raise it up a notch. Guess we failed to take into account the reality of offseason surgery. And, sure, the difficulty of being great all the time.

      I’d extend this guy. Now is the time.

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