Mets360 2017 projection review: Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed

(Credit: USA Today Sports Images)

Despite Jeurys Familia’s impending suspension for domestic violence when the 2017 season started, the back end of the Mets’ bullpen looked to be a strength with Addison Reed holding the fort until his return. Familia was coming off his best season in 2016, earning his first All-Star nod en route to blowing away the Mets’ single season save record with 51.

Reed, no slouch himself, also turned in a career year in 2016 with a dominant performance of his own. It was a two-headed monster that, understandably, Mets fans were excited to see shut down the opposition as the 2017 Mets inevitably soared towards the post-season.

We sure were excited here at Mets360, as our projections below show:

IP ERA WHIP Saves
Familia 62.7 2.53 1.175 37
Reed 76.7 2.40 1.120 11

Well, things didn’t turn out as we had hoped. Here’s are they actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group and starting with Familia:

IP – 24.2
Best – Rogan (53)
Worst – Ryan (73.3)

ERA – 4.38
Best – O’Malley (2.86)
Worst – Netter (2.20)

WHIP – 1.46
Best – Hangley (1.27)
Worst – Ryan (0.97)

Saves – 6
Best – Barbieri (31)
Worst – Netter (45)

Familia wasn’t quite himself when he returned, but before he could get back on track he went down with an arterial blood clot in his right shoulder. He didn’t return until the end of August, and by then the season was down the tubes, Reed was gone, and Marlins closer AJ Ramos was now Mets closer AJ Ramos. It was a weird year.

Next up, interim-that-turned-out-kind-of-long-term-closer Reed:

IP – 76
Best – Rogan (76)
Worst – Barbieri (46)

ERA – 2.84
Best – O’Malley (2.80)
Worst – Barbieri (3.59)

WHIP – 1.05
Best – Netter (1.05)
Worst – Barbieri (1.26)

Saves – 19
Best – Walendin (16)
Worst – Barbieri, Fox, Netter, Ryan (8)

While Reed’s 2017 wasn’t quite as strong as his 2016, it was certainly a fairly strong season. That Reed ended the season in a Red Sox uniform bespoke the season’s putrid turn, but hey the Mets got relief prospects for him or something.

The killer Reed-Familia duo of 2015 and (especially) 2016 never re-emerged, but at the end of the day that turned out to be the least of the Mets’ problems this past season. With Ramos on the roster and a hopefully healthy Familia ready to reclaim his glory, it’ll be interesting to see what direction Mickey Callaway takes with the back end of the bullpen. It’s just one of many challenges facing him as he starts his Mets managerial career, though it’d be shocking to see anyone but Familia closing games in 2018.

3 comments for “Mets360 2017 projection review: Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed

  1. TexasGusCC
    October 25, 2017 at 10:55 am

    Rob, let’s be greedy. Say that everyone comes back healthy. You start the year with Syndergaard, DeGrom, Harvey, Matz, and let’s just say Montero in the rotation. You use Lugo, Wheeler, and Gsellman in the pen, with Ramos, Familia, and Blevins. Naturally, you need to add a lefty. That means all of Alderson’s trades are going to Vegas, as is Robles.

    Thus, there is really no place for Reed to return. In fact, a lefty like McGee fits better. Now, things probably won’t be this way, but the chatter to bring back Reed may not be what is best for this team in 2018, or you keep Gsellman and Lugo stretches out in the minors and add Reed and another reliever, for example.

  2. Pete from NJ
    October 25, 2017 at 7:51 pm

    Just saying: we’ve had great success with the Familia/Reed combination especially the 2016 numbers. I can even argue that Reed’s performance was even more dominant than Familia’s.

    So we have the Familia/Ramos combo for next year. Ramos’s lack of command is a polar opposite of Reed’s MO. Concerning? Or just different.

  3. Metsense
    October 26, 2017 at 8:56 am

    If the Mets pick up Blevins option for $7 mm, and the projected arbitration cost of Familia of $7.4 mm and Ramos $9.2 mm then the back end of the bullpen will cost $23.6 mm. Then at the end of 2018 they will all be free agents. The Mets have an opportunity to plan ahead with multiple options to reconstruct. the bullpen. They should be considering extending Familia and trying to replace Ramos prior to the tender deadline with a pitcher like Reed. They need to examine the free agent list because there are 10 free agents with ERA’s below 3.00 and a total of 24 that are below 4.00 ERA with many of them cheaper than Ramos and Blevins. They should be able to do better with their $24 mm while stabilizing the future.

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