GM project 2017-18 Oakland A’s

This is a project where 30 people got together to act as the GMs of the 30 MLB teams with the idea of conducting the offseason in one week. This is what happened in this simulation, not a prediction of what will happen in real life.

By Matt Bruce

Oakland signed Alex Cobb, Chris Iannetta, Colby Rasmus, Carlos Santana, Matt Albers, and Bryan Shaw; the A’s also traded Jed Lowrie for Brock Holt and a minor Red Sox pitching prospect named Mike Shawaryn.

This was my third year in the GM project, the first time I ran my real-life favorite team, and the first-time I felt both bitten by the winner’s curse and generally unsatisified with my execution. Two years ago I had a Cleveland team with a stacked rotation and a golden opportuntity to go all in if they could land a couple big bats: I signed Justin Upton, who was terrible until that September; Cleveland in real life made it to extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series. Last year I had a bad but rapidly improving Milwaukee team with intriguing young position players and questionable pitching: Seeing some undervalued big bats and a tight pitching market, I traded for Yasiel Puig and signed Justin Turner. The Brewers came remarkably close to the playoffs, while Puig and Turner are doing amazing things in the 2017 Fall Classic. (Puig just hit a home run in the ninth inning as I was typing this.)

On to Oakland though! The A’s started this project with two commodities of note: Jed Lowrie on a team-friendly contract (but blocking Franklin Barreto), and a lot of payroll room given the 2017 mid-season house cleaning. Biggest needs were catcher (I like Bruce Maxwell but he is no sure thing), bullpen, top of the rotation, and outfield defense. The A’s young hitters came into their own in the second half, and the team is long on young, promising pitchers and prospects.

You may know recent Billy Beane from such gems as $5M Trevor Plouffe or $10M (actually $30M/3) Billy Butler. Surely I would avoid such folly… right? Early in the week I had speculative conversations with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox, all involving expensive pitchers coming my way. None panned out. I had fleeting exchanges with other teams who all seemed to get better deals elsewhere. Aside from the non-tenders, Oakland’s roster did not change until the $19 million Alex Cobb deal, $5 million more than the second bid. Winner’s curse!

I tried to shop Lowrie some more; I even shopped Franklin Barreto himself, only to find we have lots of endowment effect, with owners valuing (or claiming to value) their own prospects way higher than other teams’ prospects. A few hours before bids were due on the last round of big ticket free agents, I converted Lowrie into $4M, a Swiss army knife who looked dead lost in 2017, and an ex-Maryland pitcher who’s racked up minor league strikeouts.

With money to burn I checked out Chris Iannetta. 36 extra-base hits in just 316 plate appearances! I had fresh(?) memories of previous offensive prowess, completely failing to process that 2008 was a decade ago, that he’s 35 now, and that he was atrocious in 2015-2016. I put in for $10.5 million, expecting to edge out either a $10 flat or high seven digit bid. Nobody else bid on him! In theory I could have signed him for $1 million. (That wouldn’t have been quite realistic, but so it goes…) Winner’s curse! Pause here to note that we have no idea who the second bidder on $30/3 Billy Butler would have been, or how much, and maybe it’s just as well.

I also put in for $2.5 million for Colby Rasmus, also unopposed. Rasmus had a quite productive 2017 when he played, but was on the restricted list because he “walked away from baseball.” If Rasmus chooses to call it a career then that $2.5 million is a mulligan I suppose. All the same, I’d much rather see him running outfield routes than, say, Matt Joyce.

In theory the 40 most notable free agents are auctioned off in groups throughout the week, with everyone else on Saturday. Respectfully I would have put Carlos Santana among those 40. When he didn’t happen to be, maybe people forgot about him. I think a $4 million Santana is tremendous value but since my bid was unopposed it could have been even more ridiculous than it was. I genuinely didn’t expect to land him but didn’t want someone else to get a great deal. I planned to make the money work at the last minute but it just didn’t happen. Finally, I was thrilled to get Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw for a million apiece (in real life they’ll go for much more), and I extended defensive whiz Peter Bourjos an NRI.

Without further ado, your 2018 Oakland A’s, at least until Dustin Fowler and A.J. Puk get a financially convenient amount of further seasoning…

1. 2B Franklin Barreto
2. DH Carlos Santana
3. SS Marcus Semien
4. 1B Matt Olson / Ryon Healy
5. LF Khris Davis
6. RF Colby Rasmus / Chad Pinder
7. 3B Matt Chapman
8. C Bruce Maxwell / Chris Iannetta*
9. CF Boog Powell

*- Maxwell listed first as the lefty batter but Iannetta gets most of the playing time.
(Matt Joyce and Brock Holt for miscellany; Pinder backs up middle infield and Healy third)

sp1. Alex Cobb
sp2. Kendall Graveman
sp3. Sean Manaea (LHP)
sp4. Daniel Mengden
sp5. Jharel Cotton

rp1. Blake Treinen
rp2. Bryan Shaw
rp3. Matt Albers
rp4. Liam Hendriks
rp5. Daniel Coulombe (LHP)
rp6. Ryan Dull
rp7. Santiago Casilla

That’s actually 26 players listed above, not 25; there’s a good chance someone making more the minimum will be cut (dead money), or Colby Rasmus will stay retired, who knows. Andrew Triggs, Paul Blackburn, Chris Bassitt, and others all have a great chance to crack the rotation (or long relief), but note that for the moment Triggs and Blackburn (and Fowler) are on the 60-day DL.

If you listened to the podcast in mid-October you heard my crazy prediction that the 2018 A’s would make the playoffs. I don’t honestly expect that to happen, but I do think that unless it’s an old team requiring a tear-down, GM wannabes are duty-bound to set their teams up to give their fans hope, if that can be done without squandering future value. These A’s have a fighting chance, just more steeply than I’d intended.

Player	Pos	ML Srv	2018	on the 25?	on the 40?
Davis, Khris	lf	4.104	$11,100,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Iannetta, Chris	c		$10,500,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Joyce, Matt	rf	8.123	$6,000,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Santana, Carlos	dh		$4,000,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Semien, Marcus	ss	3.118	$3,200,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Rasmus, Colby	of		$2,500,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Holt, Brock	Util		$2,000,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Healy, Ryon	1b-dh	1.08	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Chapman, Matt	3b	0.109	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Maxwell, Bruce	c	1.016	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Olson, Matt	1b	0.103	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Barreto, Franklin	ss	0.045	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Pinder, Chad	2b	1.044	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Powell, Boog	of	0.1	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Cobb, Alex	rhp		$19,000,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Graveman, Kendall	rhp-s	3.014	$2,600,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Manaea, Sean	lhp-s	1.157	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Mengden, Daniel	rhp-s	0.157	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Cotton, Jharel	rhp-s	1.021	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Casilla, Santiago	rhp	10.148	$6,000,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Treinen, Blake	rhp-c	3.065	$2,300,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Hendriks, Liam	rhp	4.038	$1,900,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Albers, Matt			$1,000,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Shaw, Bryan			$1,000,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Dull, Ryan	rhp	2.034	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Coulombe, Daniel	lhp	1.149	$675,000.00	TRUE	TRUE
Brugman, Jaycob	of	0.063			TRUE
Wendle, Joey	2b	0.088			TRUE
Mateo, Jorge	ss	0			TRUE
Munoz, Yairo	ss	0			TRUE
Nunez, Renato	dh-3b	0.048			TRUE
Bassitt, Chris	rhp	2.07			TRUE
Montas, Frankie	rhp	1.015			TRUE
Alcantara, Raul	rhp-s	0.083			TRUE
Brady, Michael	rhp	0.085			TRUE
Gossett, Daniel	rhp	0.091			TRUE
Moll, Sam	lhp	0.031			TRUE
Hahn, Jesse	rhp	2.067			TRUE
Castro, Simon	rhp	0.137			TRUE
Wahl, Bobby	rhp	0.152			TRUE
Fowler, Dustin	of	0.095			DL-60
Triggs, Andrew	rhp-s	1.123			DL-60
Blackburn, Paul	rhp	0.093			DL-60
Bourjos, Peter	of				Non-Roster Invite
Puk, A.J.	lhp				Non-Roster Prospect
Shawaryn, Mike	rhp				Non-Roster Prospect
Phegley, Josh	c	3.114	$1,100,000.00		Non-Tender
Smolinski, Jake	cf	3.016	$700,000.00		Non-Tender
Hatcher, Chris	rhp	4.146	$2,200,000.00		Non-Tender
Garneau, Dustin	c	1.055			Outright
Canha, Mark	1b-lf	2.092			Outright
Smith, Josh	rhp	1.087			Outright
Lowrie, Jed	2b	9.111	$6,000,000.00		Traded!
Major League Payroll (25-Man)			$81,200,000.00	26	40
Minor League Payroll (15 by $150K)			$2,250,000.00
		Total	$83,450,000.00
		Budget	$80,000,000.00
		Gap	-$3,450,000.00